Modeling the probability distribution of the bacterial burst size via a game-theoretic approach

Based on previous studies, empirical distribution of the bacterial burst size varies even in a population of isogenic bacteria. Since bacteriophage progenies increase linearly with time, it is the lysis time variation that results in the bacterial burst size variations.Here, the burst size variation is computationally modeled by considering the lysis time decisions as a game. Each player in the game is a bacteriophage that has initially infected and lysed its host bacterium. Also, the payoff of each burst size strategy is the average number of bacteria that are solely infected by the bacteriophage progenies after lysis. For calculating the payoffs, a new version of ball and bin model with time dependent occupation probabilities (TDOP) is proposed.We show that Nash equilibrium occurs for a range of mixed burst size strategies that are chosen and played by bacteriophages, stochastically. Moreover, it is concluded that the burst size variations arise from choosing mixed lysis strategies by each player. By choosing the lysis time and also the burst size stochastically, the released bacteriophage progenies infect a portion of host bacteria in environment and avoid extinction. The probability distribution of the mixed burst size strategies is also identified.