scholarly journals A game theoretic approach reveals that discretizing clinical information can reduce antibiotic misuse

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya Diamant ◽  
Shoham Baruch ◽  
Eias Kassem ◽  
Khitam Muhsen ◽  
Dov Samet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Prescription ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Social Optimum ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Game Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Optimal Output ◽  
The Social ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Game Theoretic Approach

AbstractThe overuse of antibiotics is exacerbating the antibiotic resistance crisis. Since this problem is a classic common-goods dilemma, it naturally lends itself to a game-theoretic analysis. Hence, we designed a model wherein physicians weigh whether antibiotics should be prescribed, given that antibiotic usage depletes its future effectiveness. The physicians’ decisions rely on the probability of a bacterial infection before definitive laboratory results are available. We show that the physicians’ equilibrium decision rule of antibiotic prescription is not socially optimal. However, we prove that discretizing the information provided to physicians can mitigate the gap between their equilibrium decisions and the social optimum of antibiotic prescription. Despite this problem’s complexity, the effectiveness of the discretization solely depends on the type of information available to the physician to determine the nature of infection. This is demonstrated on theoretic distributions and a clinical dataset. Our results provide a game-theory based guide for optimal output of current and future decision support systems of antibiotic prescription.

scholarly journals Discretizing clinical information can reduce antibiotic misuse: a game theoretic approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya Diamant ◽  
Shoham Baruch ◽  
Eias Kassem ◽  
Khitam Muhsen ◽  
Dov Samet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Prescription ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Social Optimum ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Game Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Optimal Output ◽  
The Social ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Game Theoretic Approach

The overuse of antibiotics is exacerbating the antibiotic resistance crisis. Since this problem is a classic common-goods dilemma, it naturally lends itself to a game-theoretic analysis. Hence, we designed a model wherein physicians weigh whether antibiotics should be prescribed, given that antibiotic usage depletes its future effectiveness. The physicians' decisions rely on the probability of a bacterial infection before definitive laboratory results are available. We show that the physicians' equilibrium decision-rule of antibiotic prescription is not socially optimal. However, we prove that discretizing the information provided to physicians can mitigate the gap between their equilibrium decisions and the social optimum of antibiotic prescription. Despite this problem's complexity, the effectiveness of the discretization solely depends on the distribution of available information. This is demonstrated on theoretic distributions and a clinical dataset. Our results provide a game-theory based guide for optimal output of current and future decision support systems of antibiotic prescription.

scholarly journals A Game Theoretic Analysis of Competition Between Vaccine and Drug Companies during Disease Contraction and Recovery

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110535
Author(s):  
Kjell Hausken ◽  
Mthuli Ncube
Keyword(s):  
Risky Behavior ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Successful Development ◽  
Game Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Drug Companies ◽  
Safe Behavior ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Societal Level ◽  
Game Theoretic Approach

Background Infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS are behaviorally challenging for persons, vaccine and drug companies, and donors. Methods In 3 linked games in which a disease may or may not be contracted, [Formula: see text] persons choose risky or safe behavior (game 1). Two vaccine companies (game 2) and 2 drug companies (game 3) choose whether to develop vaccines and drugs. Each person chooses whether to buy 1 vaccine (if no disease contraction) or 1 drug (if disease contraction). A donor subsidizes vaccine and drug developments and purchases. Nature probabilistically chooses disease contraction, recovery versus death with and without each drug, and whether vaccines and drugs are developed successfully. COVID-19 data are used for parameter estimation. Results Each person chooses risky behavior if its utility outweighs safe behavior, accounting for nature’s probability of disease contraction which depends on how many are vaccinated. Each person buys a vaccine or drug if the companies produce them and if their utilities (accounting for side effects and virus mutation) outweigh the costs, which may be subsidized by a sponsor. Discussion Drug purchases depend on nature’s recovery probability exceeding the probability in the absence of a drug. Each company develops and produces a vaccine or drug if nature’s probability of successful development is high, if sufficiently many persons buy the vaccine or drug at a sales price that sufficiently exceeds the production price, and if the donor sponsors. Conclusion Accounting for all players’ interlinked decisions allowing 14 outcomes, which is challenging without a game theoretic analysis, the donor maximizes all persons’ expected utilities at the societal level to adjust how persons’ purchases and the companies’ development and production are subsidized. Highlights A game theoretic approach can help explain the production decisions of vaccine and drug companies, and the decisions of persons and a donor, impacted by Nature. In 3 linked games, N persons choose risky behavior if its utility outweighs safe behavior. Vaccine and drug companies develop vaccines and drugs sponsored by a donor if profitable, allowing 14 outcomes.

Getting to Peace: Roger Fisher's Scholarship in International Law and the Social Sciences

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 1061-1080
Author(s):  
ANDREW MAMO
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Subsequent Work ◽  
Game Theoretic Analysis ◽  
Basic Assumptions ◽  
The Social ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
The Cold War

AbstractThis article examines Roger Fisher's scholarship in international law in the decades prior to the publication of Getting to Yes. Fisher engaged with the same major questions as other international law scholars during the Cold War, but his scholarship was distinguished by the degree to which he grappled with the cutting-edge social science of the mid-century. Even as Fisher collaborated with game theorists and nuclear strategists to understand the theory of conflict, he maintained a critical view of the basic assumptions of game theoretic analysis – defending certain normative elements of the methodology even as he denied its descriptive claims. Subsequent work sought to generate robust descriptions of the role of law in international decision-making during crises. Fisher's normative and descriptive studies of the role of law in such crises led directly to Getting to Yes, creating a body of ‘meta-game theory’ that situated formal studies of conflict within a lawyer's understanding of dispute resolution. Fisher's engagement with social scientists helps illuminate current methodological debates in international law by highlighting the stakes of these theoretical questions and the tensions between scholarship and practice in international law.

scholarly journals A Simple Model for the Integration of Goods and the Capital Market with Unionized Labor Markets

Ekonomika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37
Author(s):  
Domenico Buccella
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Competitive Industry ◽  
The Social ◽  
Imperfectly Competitive ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Capital Market Liberalization ◽  
Game Theoretic Approach

[full article and abstract in English] The present work analyzes the effects of goods and capital market integration on welfare. In an imperfectly competitive industry with unionized labor, openness to competition via exports, the possibility of holding minority stakes into a rival company and undertaking Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) exemplify product and capital market liberalization, respectively. Challenging the “lieu commune” that liberalization a priori improves the social welfare of an economy, making use of a game-theoretic approach, it is shown that a domestic government should design the appropriate interventions in product and capital markets depending on the precise pattern of economic integration.

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