Today, vehicle development is already in a process of substantial transformation. Mobility trends can be derived from global megatrends and have a significant influence on the requirements of the developed vehicles. The sociological, technological, economic, ecological, and political developments can be determined by using the scenario technique. The results are recorded in the form of differently shaped scenarios; however, they are mainly document-based. In order to ensure a holistic approach in the sense of model-based systems engineering and to be able to trace the interrelationships of the fast-changing trends and requirements, it is necessary to implement future scenarios in the system model. For this purpose, a method is proposed that enables the consideration of future scenarios in model-based vehicle development. The procedure of the method is presented, and the location of the future scenarios within the system architectures is named. The method is applied and the resulting system views are derived based on the application example of an autonomous people mover. With the help of the described method, it is possible to show the effects of a change of scenario (e.g., best-case and worst-case) and the connections with the highest level of requirements: stakeholder needs.
An Approach to Complement Model-Based Vehicle Development by Implementing Future Scenarios
