scholarly journals An Algorithm for Construction Project Cost Forecast Based on Particle Swarm Optimization-Guided BP Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Dan Ye

Construction project cost prediction is an important function in construction-related fields; it can provide an important basis for project feasibility study and design scheme comparison and selection, and its accuracy will directly affect the investment decision of the project. The successful realization of construction cost prediction can bring great convenience to the control and management of construction cost. The purpose of this paper is to study a fast, accurate, convenient, deducible, and rational construction project cost prediction method, to provide a basis for the cost management of the whole life cycle of the project. Therefore, this paper uses particle swarm optimization algorithm to improve BP neural network and proposes a novel construction project cost prediction algorithm based on particle swarm optimization-guided BP neural network. Aiming at the defects of BP neural network updating weights and thresholds with the gradient descent method, this paper uses the advantages of particle swarm optimization in the field of parameter optimization to optimize BP neural network with PSO algorithm. The structure of BP neural network weights and the threshold of each neuron in the coding, through intelligent search for each particle, find the most suitable weights and thresholds, so that the BP neural network has faster convergence speed, better generalization ability, and higher prediction precision. Simulation results also show that the proposed algorithm is competitive enough.

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Lanjun Liu ◽  
Denghui Liu ◽  
Han Wu ◽  
Xinyu Wang

The prediction of construction cost of metro shield engineering is of great significance to project management. In this study, we used the rough set theory, a backpropagation (BP) neural network, and quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) to establish a prediction model for predicting the metro shield construction costs. The model accounts for the complexity of metro shield construction and the nonlinear relationship between the construction cost factors. First, the factors affecting the construction cost were determined by referring to the Chinese National Standards and analysing the engineering practice of typical metro shield projects. The rough set theory was used to simplify the system of influencing factors to extract the dominant influencing factors and reduce the number of input variables in the BP neural network. Since the BP neural network easily falls into a local minimum and has a slow convergence speed, QPSO was used to optimize the weights and thresholds of the BP neural network. This method combined the strong nonlinear analysis capabilities of the BP and the global search capabilities of the QPSO. Finally, we selected 50 projects in China for a case analysis. The results showed the dominant factors affecting the construction cost of these projects included ten indicators, such as the type of tunnelling machine and the geological characteristics. The determination coefficient, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and mean absolute error, which are frequently used error analysis tools, were used to analyse the calculation errors of different models (the proposed model, a multiple regression method, a traditional BP model, a BP model optimized by the genetic algorithm, and the BP model optimized by the particle swarm optimization). The results showed that the proposed method had the highest prediction accuracy and stability, demonstrating the effectiveness and excellent performance of this proposed method.


2021 ◽  
pp. 240-246
Author(s):  
Weiying Wu

This paper summarizes the theory of project cost, which paves the way for the basic theoretical system of construction project cost estimation. This paper expounds the function of project cost and the main factors affecting project cost. Secondly, the basic principles of BP neural network method and grey theory are described, which provides technical support for the establishment of construction cost estimation system model. In view of the shortcomings of BP neural network, such as slow convergence speed, easy to fall into local minimum and inaccurate prediction, this paper proposes an improved method to process the data of BP neural network input layer with grey one-time accumulation, and then use grey one-time subtraction to process the output layer. Finally, the optimization model based on grey BP neural network method is established to establish a more accurate knowledge framework system in order to solve the construction cost estimation.


IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 184656-184663
Author(s):  
Xiaoqiang Tian ◽  
Lingfu Kong ◽  
Deming Kong ◽  
Li Yuan ◽  
Dehan Kong

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 3605-3609
Author(s):  
Yu Xin Zhang ◽  
Yu Liu

Cloing and hypermutation of immune theory were used in optimization on particle swarm optimization (PSO), an immune particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm was proposed , which overcome the problem of premature convergence on PSO. IPSO was used in BP Neural Network training to overcome slow convergence speed and easily getting into local dinky value of gradient descent algorithm. BP Neural Network trained by IPSO was used to fault diagnosis of power transformer, it has high accuracy after experimental verification and to meet the power transformer diagnosis engineering requirements.


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