Develop a Clinical Prediction Model for Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction after Major Noncardiac Surgery in Elderly Patients: A Protocol for a Prospective Observational Study

Gerontology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Yang Shen ◽  
Xianchen Li ◽  
Junyan Yao
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Cognitive Decline ◽  
Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Noncardiac Surgery ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Clinical Prediction Model ◽  
Postoperative Cognitive Decline

Perioperative neurocognitive disorders (PNDs) refer to cognitive decline identified in the preoperative or postoperative period. It has been reported that the incidence of postoperative neurocognitive impairment after noncardiac surgery in patients older than 65 at 1 week was 25.8∼41.4%, and at 3 months 9.9∼12.7%. PNDs will last months or even develop to permanent dementia, leading to prolonged hospital stays, reduced quality of life, and increased mortality within 1 year. Despite the high incidence and poor prognosis of PNDs in the aged population, no effective clinical prediction model has been established to predict postoperative cognitive decline preoperatively. To develop a clinical prediction model for postoperative neurocognitive dysfunction, a prospective observational study (Clinical trial registration number: ChiCTR2000036304) will be performed in the Shanghai General Hospital during January 2021 to October 2022. A sample size of 675 patients aged &#x3e;65 years old, male or female, and scheduled for elective major noncardiac surgery will be recruited. A battery of neuropsychological tests will be used to test the cognitive function of patients at 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months postoperatively. We will evaluate the associations of PNDs with a bunch of candidate predictors including general characteristics of patients, blood biomarkers, indices associated with anesthesia and surgery, retinal nerve-fiber layer thickness, and frailty index to develop the clinical prediction model by using multiple logistic regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and the selection operator (LASSO) method. The <i>k</i>-fold cross-validation method will be utilized to validate the clinical prediction model. In conclusion, this study was aimed to develop a clinical prediction model for postoperative cognitive dysfunction of old patients. It is anticipated that the knowledge gained from this study will facilitate clinical decision-making for anesthetists and surgeons managing the aged patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.

scholarly journals Prediction of disease severity in young children presenting with acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings: a protocol for a prospective observational study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. e045826
Author(s):  
Arjun Chandna ◽  
Endashaw M Aderie ◽  
Riris Ahmad ◽  
Eggi Arguni ◽  
Elizabeth A Ashley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Venous Blood ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Acute Febrile Illness ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Open Access Journals

IntroductionIn rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care.Methods and analysisThis prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies.Ethics and disseminationThe study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings.Trial registration numberNCT04285021.

scholarly journals Cerebral Oximetry and Cognitive Dysfunction in Elderly Patients Undergoing Surgery for Hip Fractures: A Prospective Observational Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 400-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Papadopoulos ◽  
Menelaos Karanikolas ◽  
Antonia Liarmakopoulou ◽  
George Papathanakos ◽  
Marianna Korre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Mmse Score ◽  
Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Cerebral Oximetry ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay

Aim: This study was conducted to examine perioperative cerebral oximetry changes in elderly patients undergoing hip fracture repair and evaluate the correlation between regional oxygen saturation (rSO2) values, postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) and hospital stay. Materials and Methods: This prospective observational study included 69 patients. Data recorded included demographic information, rSO2 values from baseline until the second postoperative hour and Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores preoperatively and on postoperative day 7. MMSE score ≤23 was considered evidence of cognitive dysfunction. Postoperative confusion or agitation, medications administered for postoperative agitation, and hospital length of stay were also recorded. Data were analyzed with Student’s t-test, Pearson’s correlation or multiple regression analysis as appropriate. Results: Patient age was 74±13 years. Baseline left sided rSO2 values were 60±10 and increased significantly after intubation. Baseline rSO2 L<50 and <45 was observed in 11.6% and 10.1% of patients respectively. Perioperative cerebral desaturation occurred in 40% of patients. MMSE score was 26.23 ± 2.77 before surgery and 25.94 ± 2.52 on postoperative day 7 (p=0.326). MMSE scores ≤ 23 were observed preoperatively in 6 and postoperatively in 9 patients. Patients with cognitive dysfunction had lower preoperative hematocrit, hemoglobin, SpO2 and rSO2 values at all times, compared to patients who did not. There was no correlation between rSO2 or POCD and hospital stay. Patients with baseline rSO2 <5 required more medications for postoperative agitation. Conclusion: Cognitive dysfunction occurs preoperatively and postoperatively in elderly patients with hip fractures, and is associated with low cerebral rSO2 values.

scholarly journals Dynamic Change of Lymphocyte-to-Monocyte Is Associated With the Occurrence of POCD After Cardiovascular Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Zhao ◽  
Rui Gao ◽  
Changliang Liu ◽  
Hai Chen ◽  
Xueying Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Cardiovascular Surgery ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Monocyte Count ◽  
Cutoff Value ◽  
Group A

Objective: Postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) is a common and severe complication of cardiovascular surgery. Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) has been reported to be an independent predictor of lots of diseases associated with inflammation, but the association between the LMR and POCD is not clear. The present study aimed to investigate the potential value of LMR level to predict POCD in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery.Methods: A prospective observational study was performed on the patients diagnosed with heart diseases undergoing cardiovascular surgeries with cardiopulmonary bypass. The leukocyte counts were measured by blood routine examination preoperatively. Then we calculated the LMR by dividing the lymphocyte count by the monocyte count. Neurocognitive functions were assessed 1 day before and 7 days after surgery. Perioperative factors were recorded to explore the relationship between LMR and POCD.Results: In total, 75 patients finished the whole study, while 34 patients developed POCD. The preoperative LMR level in the POCD group was higher than that in the non-POCD group. A cutoff value of 4.855 was identified to predict POCD occurrence according to ROC curve. The perioperative dynamic change of LMR level in the POCD group was higher than those in the non-POCD group. A cutoff value of 2.255 was identified to predict POCD occurrence according to ROC curve and the dynamic LMR change had similar varying trend with preoperative LMR level.Conclusions: The dynamic change of LMR level in the peripheral blood is associated with occurrence of POCD, and preoperative LMR level seems to be a prognostic biomarker of postoperative cognitive dysfunction in patients after cardiovascular surgery.

scholarly journals Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a binary outcome

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard D. Riley ◽  
Thomas P. A. Debray ◽  
Gary S. Collins ◽  
Lucinda Archer ◽  
Joie Ensor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Minimum Sample Size ◽  
Binary Outcome ◽  
Clinical Prediction ◽  
Clinical Prediction Model ◽  
Minimum Sample

scholarly journals Network analysis of impulse dyscontrol in mild cognitive impairment and subjective cognitive decline

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
T. Saari ◽  
E. E. Smith ◽  
Z. Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Mild Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Cognitive Decline ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Subjective Cognitive Decline ◽  
Behavioral Impairment ◽  
Conditional Dependence ◽  
With Memory ◽  
Central Symptom

ABSTRACT Objectives: To investigate conditional dependence relationships of impulse dyscontrol symptoms in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subjective cognitive decline (SCD). Design: A prospective, observational study. Participants: Two hundred and thirty-five patients with MCI (n = 159) or SCD (n = 76) from the Prospective Study for Persons with Memory Symptoms dataset. Measurements: Items of the Mild Behavioral Impairment Checklist impulse dyscontrol subscale. Results: Stubbornness/rigidity, agitation/aggressiveness, and argumentativeness were frequent and the most central symptoms in the network. Impulsivity, the fourth most central symptom in the network, served as the bridge between these common symptoms and less central and rare symptoms. Conclusions: Impulse dyscontrol in at-risk states for dementia is characterized by closely connected symptoms of irritability, agitation, and rigidity. Compulsions and difficulties in regulating rewarding behaviors are relatively isolated symptoms.

scholarly journals Does postoperative cognitive decline after coronary bypass affect quality of life?

Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001569
Author(s):  
Fredrike Blokzijl ◽  
Frederik Keus ◽  
Saskia Houterman ◽  
Willem Dieperink ◽  
Iwan C C van der Horst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Cognitive Function ◽  
Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Postoperative Cognitive Dysfunction ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Physical Component Score ◽  
Cognitive Changes ◽  
Component Score ◽  
Postoperative Cognitive Decline

ObjectiveThis study aimed to explore the influence of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) on both postoperative cognitive dysfunction and quality of life (QoL) and the association between the two patient-related outcomes.MethodsIn a prospective, observational cohort study, patients with elective, isolated CABG were included. Cognitive function was assessed using the Cogstate computerised cognitive test battery preoperatively, 3 days and 6 months after surgery. QoL was measured preoperatively and at 6 months using the RAND-36 questionnaire including the Physical Component Score (PCS) and the Mental Component Score (MCS). Regression analysis, with adjustment for confounders, was used to evaluate the association between postoperative cognitive dysfunction and QoL.ResultsA total of 142 patients were included in the study. Evidence of persistent cognitive dysfunction was observed in 33% of patients after 6 months. At 6 months, the PCS had improved in 59% and decreased in 21% of patients, and the MCS increased in 49% and decreased in 29%. Postoperative cognitive changes were not associated with QoL scores.ConclusionsPostoperative cognitive dysfunction and decreased QoL are common 6 months after surgery, although cognitive function and QoL were found to have improved in many patients at 6 months of follow-up. Impaired cognitive function is not associated with impaired QoL at 6 months.Trial registration numberNCT03774342.

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