Abstract 166: Use of Risk Stratification for the Management of TIA in the Emergency Department: Focus Group Results.

Author(s):  
Mathew J Reeves ◽  
Brian Mavis ◽  
Thomas Wilkins ◽  
Margaret Holmes Rovner ◽  
Michael Brown ◽  
...  

Background: Evaluation of TIA cases in the emergency department (ED) represents a clinical dilemma because no firm guidelines exist as to their disposition (hospitalization vs. out-patient care). The ABCD 2 clinical prediction rule risk stratifies patients but little is known about how Emergency Medicine physicians (EMPs) use the rule in clinical decision making. We undertook focus groups with EMPs to determine their attitudes and use of the ABCD 2 score, and to understand how information on baseline risk, costs, compliance, and feasibility affect their decision making. Methods: Physicians from 2 EM practice groups in Michigan were invited to attend a focus group meeting. Data were collected on their knowledge, attitudes, and use of the ABCD 2 clinical prediction rule in the evaluation of TIA cases. Using a case vignette of a moderate risk patient (ABCD 2 score = 4, 7-day stroke risk = 6%), physicians were asked to choose between hospitalization or discharge for out-patient care. We then changed several baseline conditions, including 7-day stroke risk, health care costs, and compliance with out-patient follow-up, to determine under what conditions they altered the initial disposition decision. Results: Twenty two EMPs participated; all worked in community-based hospitals, 91% were male, 95% were EM board certified with an average of 16.5 years of EM experience. Respondents reported seeing an average of 6.7 (SD= 4.6) TIA patients per month. Sixty four percent (14/22) were familiar with the ABCD 2 score, but only 9% (2/22) used it regularly. Almost 60% (13/22) initially chose to hospitalize the moderate risk patient. Increasing the cost of the episode of care (from $3000 to $9000) did not change the decision to hospitalize for the majority (8/13, 62%) of EMPs. Only when 7-day stroke risk was lowered from 6% to 1% did the majority of EMPs (11/13, 85%) change their decision from hospitalization to outpatient care. Forty percent (9/22) initially chose to manage the moderate risk patient as an out-patient. A small increase in the cost of care (from $3000 to $3500) resulted in 56% (5/9) EMPs switching their decision from out-patient care to hospitalization, while a modest increase in stroke risk (from 6% to 10%) resulted in 78% (7/9) switching their initial decision. The choice of out-patient care was also influenced by the likelihood that patients would complete testing in the out-patient setting; if compliance dropped from 100% to 80% then half of the EMPs switched their decision from out-patient care to hospitalization. Increasing the number of hours that a patient would need to complete testing (from 4 to 12 hours) only had a modest impact on physician decision making. Conclusions: The ABCD 2 score was rarely used in practice. The decision to hospitalize was relatively insensitive to cost of care; 7-day stroke risk only influenced the decision when reduced to virtual certainty (1%). The decision to use out-patient care was more sensitive to cost of care, increases in stroke risk, and compliance in the out-patient setting. These data suggest future studies should focus on acceptable outpatient risks and costs to increase adoption of clinical prediction rules and appropriate decision making for TIA cases.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael De Dios ◽  
Shanaz Sajeed ◽  
Dan Ong Wei Jun ◽  
Amila Clarence Punyadasa

Abstract BACKGROUNDGastroenteritis (GE) is a nonspecific term for various pathologic states of the gastrointestinal tract. Infectious agents usually cause acute gastroenteritis. At present, there are no robust decision-making rules that predict bacterial GE and hence dictate when to start antibiotics in patients presenting with acute GE to the ED. We aim to define a clinical prediction rule to diagnose bacterial gastroenteritis requiring empirical antibiotics in an emergency department setting. METHODSA 2-year retrospective case review was performed on all cases from July 2015 to June 2017 that presented acutely with infectious GE symptoms to the Emergency Department and then had stool cultures performed. The clinical parameters analysed included patient co-morbid conditions, physical examination findings, historical markers, point of care tests and other laboratory work. We then used multivariate logistic regression analysis on each group (Bacterial culture-positive GE and Bacterial culture-negative GE) to elucidate clinical criteria with the highest yield for predicting BGE. RESULTS756 patients with a mean age of 52 years, 52% of whom were female, and 48% male, were recruited into the study. Based on the data from these patients, we suggest using a scoring system to delineate the need for empirical antibiotics in patients with suspected bacterial GE based on six clinical and laboratory variables. A score 0-3 points on the suggests low risk (5.8%) of bacterial GE. A score of 4-5 points confers an intermediate risk of 28.5% and a score of 6-8 points confers a high risk of 66.7%. A cut-off of >5 points may be used to predict culture positive BGE with a 75% sensitivity and 75% specificity. The AUROC for the scoring system (range 0-8) is 0.812+0.016 (95% CI: 0.780-0.843) p-value <0.001. CONCLUSIONWhile this is a pilot study which will require further validation with a larger sample size, our proposed decision-making rule will potentially serve to improve diagnosis of BGE, reduce unnecessary prescribing of antibiotics which will in turn reduce antibiotic associated adverse events and save costs worldwide.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e002150
Author(s):  
Francesca M Chappell ◽  
Fay Crawford ◽  
Margaret Horne ◽  
Graham P Leese ◽  
Angela Martin ◽  
...  

IntroductionThe aim of the study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR) for foot ulceration in people with diabetes.Research design and methodsDevelopment of a CPR using individual participant data from four international cohort studies identified by systematic review, with validation in a fifth study. Development cohorts were from primary and secondary care foot clinics in Europe and the USA (n=8255, adults over 18 years old, with diabetes, ulcer free at recruitment). Using data from monofilament testing, presence/absence of pulses, and participant history of previous ulcer and/or amputation, we developed a simple CPR to predict who will develop a foot ulcer within 2 years of initial assessment and validated it in a fifth study (n=3324). The CPR’s performance was assessed with C-statistics, calibration slopes, calibration-in-the-large, and a net benefit analysis.ResultsCPR scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 had a risk of ulcer within 2 years of 2.4% (95% CI 1.5% to 3.9%), 6.0% (95% CI 3.5% to 9.5%), 14.0% (95% CI 8.5% to 21.3%), 29.2% (95% CI 19.2% to 41.0%), and 51.1% (95% CI 37.9% to 64.1%), respectively. In the validation dataset, calibration-in-the-large was −0.374 (95% CI −0.561 to −0.187) and calibration slope 1.139 (95% CI 0.994 to 1.283). The C-statistic was 0.829 (95% CI 0.790 to 0.868). The net benefit analysis suggested that people with a CPR score of 1 or more (risk of ulceration 6.0% or more) should be referred for treatment.ConclusionThe clinical prediction rule is simple, using routinely obtained data, and could help prevent foot ulcers by redirecting care to patients with scores of 1 or above. It has been validated in a community setting, and requires further validation in secondary care settings.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. e040730
Author(s):  
Gea A Holtman ◽  
Huibert Burger ◽  
Robert A Verheij ◽  
Hans Wouters ◽  
Marjolein Y Berger ◽  
...  

ObjectivesPatients who present in primary care with chronic functional somatic symptoms (FSS) have reduced quality of life and increased health care costs. Recognising these early is a challenge. The aim is to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule for repeated consultations with FSS.Design and settingRecords from the longitudinal population-based (‘Lifelines’) cohort study were linked to electronic health records from general practitioners (GPs).ParticipantsWe included patients consulting a GP with FSS within 1 year after baseline assessment in the Lifelines cohort.Outcome measuresThe outcome is repeated consultations with FSS, defined as ≥3 extra consultations for FSS within 1 year after the first consultation. Multivariable logistic regression, with bootstrapping for internal validation, was used to develop a risk prediction model from 14 literature-based predictors. Model discrimination, calibration and diagnostic accuracy were assessed.Results18 810 participants were identified by database linkage, of whom 2650 consulted a GP with FSS and 297 (11%) had ≥3 extra consultations. In the final multivariable model, older age, female sex, lack of healthy activity, presence of generalised anxiety disorder and higher number of GP consultations in the last year predicted repeated consultations. Discrimination after internal validation was 0.64 with a calibration slope of 0.95. The positive predictive value of patients with high scores on the model was 0.37 (0.29–0.47).ConclusionsSeveral theoretically suggested predisposing and precipitating predictors, including neuroticism and stressful life events, surprisingly failed to contribute to our final model. Moreover, this model mostly included general predictors of increased risk of repeated consultations among patients with FSS. The model discrimination and positive predictive values were insufficient and preclude clinical implementation.


2011 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 366-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Galvin ◽  
C. Geraghty ◽  
N. Motterlini ◽  
B. D. Dimitrov ◽  
T. Fahey

2008 ◽  
Vol 107 (4) ◽  
pp. 1330-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristel J. M. Janssen ◽  
Cor J. Kalkman ◽  
Diederick E. Grobbee ◽  
Gouke J. Bonsel ◽  
Karel G. M. Moons ◽  
...  

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