scholarly journals The More Divergent, the Better? Lessons on Trilemma Policies and Crises for Asia

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Aizenman ◽  
Hiro Ito

This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the extent of policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—we find that emerging market economies have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the smallest degree of policy divergence in the last 15 years. We then investigate whether and to what extent the degree of open macro policy convergence affects the probability of a crisis and find that a developing or emerging market economy with a higher degree of policy divergence is more likely to experience a currency or debt crisis. We also compare the development of trilemma policies around the crisis period for the groups of Latin American crisis countries in the 1980s and the Asian crisis countries in the 1990s. We find that Latin American crisis countries tended to close their capital accounts in the aftermath of a crisis, while that is not the case for the Asian crisis countries. The Asian crisis countries tended to reduce the degree of policy divergence in the aftermath of the crisis, which possibly meant they decided to adopt open macro policies that made their economies less prone to a crisis.

Author(s):  
José Antonio Ocampo ◽  
Gabriel Porcile

This chapter analyses the evolution of industrial policy in the four largest Latin American economies—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia—using Korea as a benchmark. Three phases in industrial policy and industrial transformation are identified: a period of state-led industrialization between the end of the Second World War and around 1980, which came to an end with the debt crisis of the 1980s; the 1990s, when the region abandoned industrial policy and embraced the structural reform agenda; and the commodity boom after 2004, when the region witnessed a timid return of industrial policy, while at the same time world demand favoured the reprimarization of its export structure. The outcomes of these policies in terms of building technological capabilities and diversifying the industrial sector towards knowledge-intensive activities, are analysed using different indicators. The importance of the interactions between structural change, industrial policy, and macroeconomic policies (especially exchange rate and capital account management) are highlighted.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Nikolayev ◽  

The article is devoted to the study of conditions of application and influence of non-traditional monetary policy of central banks of developed countries on national economies and economies of emerging market countries. Based on critical analysis and systematization of basic research on the analysis of non-traditional monetary policy and its impact on the economies of different countries, it is substantiated that non-traditional monetary policy is a set of measures aimed at restoring the transmission mechanism and eliminating financial market imbalances. The main tools of non-traditional monetary policy are - previous management, quantitative easing; credit easing; negative interest rates, qualitative mitigation. Relevant areas of research on the financial performance of economies were also justified, as monetary policy directly affects interest rates, money supply, exchange rates, availability of credit, and through the financial sector to other sectors of the economy. During the aggravation of the economic and debt crisis, which had a negative impact on the Eurozone countries, investors' interest in CEE countries increased due to higher interest rates and the opportunity to make more profits. The study of the impact of the ECB's monetary policy on the financial indicators of Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the ECB's unconventional policy, including quantitative easing aimed at lowering long-term interest rates, affected the yield on government bonds of almost all EU countries, not only member states. euro area, which generally declined after 2014. Non-traditional monetary policy and an increase in the ECB's balance sheet also affect investment flows to CEE countries, but are mainly debt instruments in both direct and portfolio investment. The opposite situation is observed in the Eurozone countries with a high debt burden, especially in Greece and Italy. Despite the fact that the ECB's policy has led the euro area countries with a high level of debt to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, there is a tendency to increase the share of public debt payments to GDP. In this situation, the ECB simply cannot significantly change the purpose of its monetary policy, because any, even small, increase in the discount rate will lead to a new debt crisis in the Eurozone with its epicenter in Italy and Greece. The study of the impact of non-traditional policies of the Bank of Japan, the Fed and the ECB on the economy of Ukraine confirms the hypothesis that the actions of the ECB have the greatest impact on the financial performance of Ukraine. The analysis shows the impact of non-traditional monetary policy on the exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia to the euro, US dollar and Japanese yen, but it was not significant. This is due to the fact that monetary policy in Ukraine only in 2015 actually moved from a fixed exchange rate to a floating exchange rate and began to apply inflation targeting. Announcements of non-traditional monetary policy have also affected government bond yields and stock indices, but the Ukrainian stock market is underdeveloped and has little effect. The main influence was the first programs of non-traditional monetary policy of the ECB, the USA and the Bank of Japan. In times when non-traditional measures were just being introduced and difficult to regulate and predict. Thus, it was proved that, on the one hand, unconventional monetary policy can stimulate economic growth, and on the other hand, create significant risks for further monetary policy opportunities to counter future crises.


2008 ◽  
Vol 206 ◽  
pp. 83-86
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Sylvia Gottschalk ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
...  

The US dollar has strengthened in recent months against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen. It has also gained strength against emerging market currencies, and the US effective exchange rate has appreciated by just over 7 per cent in the past three months. Emerging market declines have been exacerbated in recent weeks by the turbulence on financial markets that has forced stock markets to interrupt trading on several occasions. Figure 13 shows effective exchange rates for the US, Canada, Mexico and Brazil. Central banks in Mexico and Brazil have intervened in currency markets in recent weeks to stem the decline of their currencies, which have dropped against the dollar by nearly 20 per cent in the case of Mexico and 40 per cent in Brazil since the beginning of September. If stock market trading stabilises, much of these losses should prove temporary. Our forecast assumes that a depreciation of 10 per cent in effective terms in the Brazilian real and 5 per cent in the Mexican peso is sustained. While this raises the inflationary outlook for these economies, gains in competitiveness will help moderate the impact of the global recession on Latin American economies. However, a more sustained depreciation will put the banking systems in these countries at risk as it becomes increasingly difficult to service debt in foreign currency.


2008 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 462-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
KRIS JAMES MITCHENER ◽  
MARC D. WEIDENMIER

The Baring Crisis is the nineteenth century's most famous sovereign debt crisis. Using a database of more than 15,000 observations, we assess its effect on emerging market borrowers and find empirical evidence of a regional crisis but not a global crisis. During the crisis, Latin American yield spreads increased by more than 200 basis points relative to the rest of the world, even after controlling for macroeconomic, trade, political-institutional factors, and other country-specific effects. Our evidence suggests that European investors may have sold off or reduced their holdings of Latin American securities in the wake of the Baring Crisis.


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