Outcomes of 30 Years of Economic Transformation in the Post-Soviet Space: Light and Shadows

The article provides a comparative assessment of the socio-economic development results of 12 post-Soviet countries (excluding the Baltic countries) in the period from 1992 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of real GDP and GDP per capita, it is concluded that the most successful were some countries of Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) and Armenia. It is noted that in terms of economic development, significant convergence with Russian indicators has been achieved by Kazakhstan and Belarus. The successful economic dynamics was due to the active role of the state, the regulation of exchange rate dynamics and the achievement of a relatively high rate of investments to GDP at certain stages of economic development. On the whole, the problem of high inflation, which was relevant in the 1990s, has been overcome. Social problems of poverty and inequality persist in individual countries, high dependence on external factors of economic dynamics, instability of the exchange rate dynamics and primitivization of the economy still remain as important problems in the region. It is emphasized that the factors of economic growth that operated in the post-Soviet countries during the period under review are coming to an end, which requires a search for a new economic model.

EXOGENOUS INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS UNDER ELASTIC EXPECTATIONS

<div class="WordSection1"><h1 align="center"><strong style="font-size: 10px;">ABSTRACT</strong></h1></div><p>A theory analyzing the short run dynamics of nominal exchange rates under exogenous interest rates and free imperfect international capital markets is presented. Introducing elastic exchange rate expectations leads to cumulative changes in the spot and forward exchange rates in the same direction. We find that free floating exchange rate regimes are intrinsically unstable, as the nominal exchange rate is an institutional or policy variable that has no ‘fundamental equilibrium’ level. Implications for monetary policy and exchange market interventions of this potential instability are derived. Our results help to explain both the empirical prevalence of dirty floating exchange rate regimes and some aspects of the uncovered interest parity ‘failure’.</p><p> </p><p align="center">TASA DE INTERÉS EXÓGENA Y DINÁMICA DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO CON EXPECTATIVAS ELÁSTICAS</p><p align="center"><strong>RESUMEN </strong></p><p>Presentamos un análisis teórico de la dinámica de corto plazo de los tipos de cambio nominales con tasas de interés exógenas y libres e imperfecta movilidad internacional de capitales. La introducción de expectativas de tipo de cambio elásticas conduce a variaciones acumulativas en los tipos de cambio <em>spot</em> y <em>forward</em> en la misma dirección. Los regímenes de tipo de cambio de flotación libre son intrínsicamente inestables, dado que el tipo de cambio nominal es una variable institucional o de política que no tiene un nivel de “equilibrio fundamental”. Derivamos implicaciones de esta inestabilidad potencial para la política monetaria y las intervenciones en los mercados cambiarios. Los resultados ayudan a explicar la prevalencia de tipos de cambio de flotación sucia y aspectos de la “falla” de la paridad de tasas de interés descubierta.</p>

Information content of order flows in the FX market: importance of nonfundamental factors

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to show that order flows determine exchange rate dynamics because they carry information about nonfundamental factors besides macroeconomic fundamentals.Design/methodology/approachTo understand the role of nonfundamental factors in driving order flows, this study uses two approaches. Initially, Evans and Rime (2016) VAR framework is followed to study the incremental information transmitted by order flow compared to macroeconomic variables. Then, the study uses the settings in which Rime et al. (2010) conduct their empirical work, which gives the researcher more latitude in specifying the identity of the factors that drive order flows.FindingsThe findings evidence that order flows explain the dynamics of the TND/USD exchange rate. The results highlight that order flows convey information about technical strategies, the currency systematic factors and political risk. This study also documents the presence of a Ramadan effect in exchange rates and order flows.Originality/valueThis study makes four contributions to the literature. First, it complements the literature on the FX microstructure of emerging markets. The study investigates the information content carried by order flows, while the previous literature has focused solely on examining the explanatory power of order flows to explain exchange rates in emerging countries. The second contribution is that the study demonstrates formally that order flows determine exchange rates because they transmit information about nonfundamental factors. Third, this study is the first to examine whether order flows convey information about technical analysis. Four, the study relates order flow to nontraditional factors that are relevant to the Tunisian FX market.

The Space of Eurasia and the Challenges of Time: Belorussian Case

The article is focused on ideas, expressed in a new book the complex political and economic processes taking place in the Republic of Belarus require "a game of scaling".Whether counting the participants of protest rallies, or analyzing statements of the authorities and the opposition, or assessing inventory and exchange rate dynamics,Specialists aspire to provide a reliability of the analysis of current processes.However, the strategic analysis and a forecast within the framework of this approach is impossible. The border situation of Belarus cannot be considered exhaustively studied. The borderline changes its quality. Located between socialist Poland and the Soviet republics, Belarus did not move geographically, but the political and geographical changes were fundamental. Belarus found itself in the center of a mosaic space, the key characteristic of which is being located on the frontier. The question is where a new frontier of civilizations will be fixed ‒ near Brest or near Smolensk?The author of the book as well as the author of this article are confident that the informal civilizational border is located near Brest and Grodno.