Unconventional Monetary Policy through Open Market Operations: A Principal Component Analysis

This paper examines the unconventional monetary policies of the Bank of Japan from 2002 to 2019 with a focus on open market operations. We apply a principal component analysis to investigate the complexity of monetary policy. Our results identify four principal components that explain the variance of measures taken by the Bank of Japan and its operation of various facilities: asset purchase measures including Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs), and three different liquidity supply measures. Complexity differs substantially among different governorships of Fukui, Shirakawa (most complex), and Kuroda. We derive some conclusions from the increased complexity with implications for the economy.

Sustainability of the Bank of Japan’s ETF Purchasing Policy

The Bank of Japan is the only central bank that holds enormous amounts of stocks of listed companies by purchasing ETFs via its unconventional monetary policy measures. The Bank of Japan has been buying ETFs for more than a decade and, seemingly, has no awareness that it has become a huge investor in the stock market. This article explains how this policy has potentially distorted market mechanisms and how it is difficult to find an exit strategy.

Evaluating the Unconventional Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan: A DSGE Approach

When the nominal interest rate reaches the zero lower bound (ZLB), a conventional monetary policy, namely, the adjustment of short-term interest rate, may become impractical and ineffective for central banks. Therefore, quantitative easing (QE) is one of the few available policy options of central banks for stimulating the economy and dealing with deflationary pressure. Since February 1999, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has conducted several unconventional monetary policy programs. Considering the scarce research in this field from a structural macroeconomic model approach, a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model with government bonds of different maturities was developed to check the portfolio rebalancing channel of quantitative qualitative easing (QQE) conducted by the BoJ from April 2013 on the basis of the assumption of imperfect asset substitutability. The model was calibrated on the basis of the structure of the Japanese economy in April 2013. The main conclusion is that the BoJ’s asset purchase has a real effect on pushing output and inflation higher, and long-term interest rates lower. Sensitivity simulation analysis shows that, given the same size of asset purchase, the persistence of asset purchase determines the peak effect in the short run. A long-lasting asset purchase can push up inflation higher, and long-term interest rates lower for a relatively longer period, but the long-run effect on output and investment does not have much difference. The policy implication for BoJ is just to announce a long-lasting QE program and make it credible to the market.

The risk of a wage-price spiral in 2021 remains low

Significance The Fed, in common with the ECB and Bank of Japan (BoJ), remains commited to ultra-loose policy this year. All three seem relaxed at the prospect of inflation running above the targeted level this year. Impacts Commodity prices could rise further during 2021 but there is little prospect of them reaching record levels. At this stage, the key risk for central banks is that they tighten too early and thrust economies back to a low-inflation, low-growth trap. A steady rise in prices will reduce the value of debts and allow the banks to normalise policy, but fears of an unsteady rise will persist.

Money flow network among firms’ accounts in a regional bank of Japan

In this study, we investigate the flow of money among bank accounts possessed by firms in a region by employing an exhaustive list of all the bank transfers in a regional bank in Japan, to clarify how the network of money flow is related to the economic activities of the firms. The network statistics and structures are examined and shown to be similar to those of a nationwide production network. Specifically, the bowtie analysis indicates what we refer to as a “walnut” structure with core and upstream/downstream components. To quantify the location of an individual account in the network, we used the Hodge decomposition method and found that the Hodge potential of the account has a significant correlation to its position in the bowtie structure as well as to its net flow of incoming and outgoing money and links, namely the net demand/supply of individual accounts. In addition, we used non-negative matrix factorization to identify important factors underlying the entire flow of money; it can be interpreted that these factors are associated with regional economic activities. One factor has a feature whereby the remittance source is localized to the largest city in the region, while the destination is scattered. The other factors correspond to the economic activities specific to different local places. This study serves as a basis for further investigation on the relationship between money flow and economic activities of firms.

Finance and Japan

This chapter examines the rise of the Japanese government’s financial initiatives in East Asia and their global impact, with an emphasis on the importance of policy ideas, how these ideas change, and how institutions and policy networks filter new ideas. Japan’s approach to regional and global financial governance shifted due to the economic transformation of the region and related to rethinking, especially among the policymakers in the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, of the manner through which Japan should relate with the region on financial matters. The Asian Financial Crisis played a very important role in shifting the foundation of policy debates. The transformation of the Japanese government’s policymaking structure has also contributed to the shifting Japan’s policy priorities.

The Bank of Japan: Central Bank Independence and the Politicization of Monetary Policy

In April 1998, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) gained legal independence. While the primary theoretical justification was to enhance the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility, the newly independent BOJ immediately confronted a different and unexpected problem: a long and persistent deflation. As the government battled economic stagnation, debates over the extent to which the BOJ should prioritize overcoming deflation and the policies that should be employed to this end led to a profound politicization of monetary policy. This culminated in the Prime Minister Abe’s landslide electoral victory at the end of 2012 in which he campaigned on overcoming deflation, and then, once in power, effectively took over control of a previously intransigent BOJ Policy Board to reflate the economy. The democratic electoral process paved the way for a reassertion of control over the still legally independent central bank. From a wider perspective, these developments reflect broader changes in Japanese democracy: the greater influence of electoral incentives on policy and the centralization of executive power.