scholarly journals Testing the Dimensionality of Policy Shocks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Jia Li ◽  
Viktor Todorov ◽  
Qiushi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Nonparametric Test ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Jump Matrix ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Policy Shocks

Abstract This paper provides a nonparametric test for deciding the dimensionality of a policy shock as manifest in the abnormal change in asset returns' stochastic covariance matrix, following the release of a macroeconomic announcement. We use high-frequency data in local windows before and after the event to estimate the covariance jump matrix, and then test its rank. We find a one-factor structure in the covariance jump matrix of the yield curve resulting from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shocks prior to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The dimensionality of policy shocks increased afterwards due to the use of unconventional monetary policy tools.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Gertler ◽  
Peter Karadi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Term Premia ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting “modest” movements in short rates lead to “large” movements in credit costs, which are due mainly to the reaction of both term premia and credit spreads. Finally, we show that forward guidance is important to the overall strength of policy transmission. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52, G01)

Understanding the Impact of Monetary Policy in Korea using a Macro-Finance Term Structure Model with

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-192
Author(s):  
Woon Wook Jang ◽  
Jaehoon Hahn
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Call Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Macro Finance

This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and the macroeconomy using a macro-finance term structure model of Joslin, Priebsch, and Singleton (2012), in which macroeconomic risks are not assumed to be spanned by information about the shape of the yield curve. For model estimation, we apply the Kalman filter to a large number of macroeconomic time series data grouped into output, inflation, and market stress categories and extract three common factors. For the factors determining the shape of the yield curve, we use the call rate, the spread between 10-year government bond yield and the call rate, and a combination of the call rate, 2- and 10-year government bond yields as proxies for the level, slope, and curvature factors. We interpret the call rate as a proxy for both the short rate and the instrument of monetary policy. Empirical results show that the macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on the risk premium associated with monetary policy shocks. Furthermore, we find that monetary policy shocks increase the term premium, which in turn affects the factors determining the yield curve, and such effects on the shape of the yield curve feeds back into the macroeconomic factors. Taken together, empirical findings in this paper can be interpreted as evidence supporting the term premium channel (Ferman, 2011) of monetary policy transmission mechanism.

scholarly journals Robust Inference in Models Identified via Heteroskedasticity

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Simultaneous Equations ◽  
Robust Inference ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Weak Identification ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Intraday Data

Identification via heteroskedasticity exploits variance changes between regimes to identify parameters in simultaneous equations. Weak identification occurs when shock variances change very little or multiple variances change close-toproportionally, making standard inference unreliable. I propose an F-test for weak identification in a common simple version of the model. More generally, I establish conditions for validity of non-conservative robust inference on subsets of the parameters, which can be used to test for weak identification. I study monetary policy shocks identified using heteroskedasticity in high frequency data. I detect weak identification, invalidating standard inference, in daily data, while intraday data provides strong identification.

scholarly journals The impact of monetary policy shocks on the equity risk premium before and after the Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 146-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Poshakwale ◽  
Pankaj Chandorkar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Equity Risk Premium ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Impact

The authors investigate the impact of structural monetary policy shocks on ex-post equity risk premium (ERP) of aggregate and sectoral FTSE indices and 25 Fama-French style value-weighted portfolios. They find that monetary policy shocks negatively affect the ERP but at the sectoral level, the magnitude of the response is heterogeneous. Further, monetary policy shocks have a significant negative (positive) impact on the ERP before (after) the implementation of quantitative easing (QE). The empirical evidence provided in the paper sheds light on the equity market’s asymmetric response to the BoE’s policy before and after the monetary stimulus. Keywords: monetary policy, equity risk premium, quantitative easing, monetary policy shocks, structural vector autoregression, Bank of England, Taylor monetary policy rule, unconventional monetary policy, output gap, inflation gap, Okun’s law. JEL Classification: E5, E30, G0, G1

Time-varying response of treasury yields to monetary policy shocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-442
Author(s):  
Lassaâd Mbarek ◽  
Hardik A. Marfatia ◽  
Sonja Juko
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Effectiveness ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the Treasury bond yields response to monetary policy shocks in Tunisia under a heterogeneous economic environment. Design/methodology/approach Using a traditional fixed coefficient model, the impact of monetary policy changes on the term structure of interest rates for the whole period from January 2006 to December 2016 is estimated first. Then the stability of this relationship by distinguishing two sub-periods around the revolution of January 2011 is studies. To investigate how the relationship between the monetary policy and the Treasury yield curve evolves over time, a time-varying parameter model is estimated. Findings The results show that the impact of monetary policy is more pronounced at the short end of the yield curve relative to the longer end. Furthermore, this impact declines significantly across all maturities following the revolution and exhibits wide time variation. This evidence supports the negative influence of high levels of uncertainty on monetary policy effectiveness and highlights the desirability of more active monetary policy, especially in turbulent environment. Research limitations/implications The impact of uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks needs to be explored further in future research to understand the structural sources of uncertainty and their dynamic interactions with monetary policy and risk aversion in asset markets. Practical implications A more active role of the central bank to influence the yield curve mainly through Treasury bond purchases covering medium and long maturities may be warranted. Communication also needs to be reinforced to ensure predictability of the monetary policy stance. Originality/value This paper extends the empirical literature on the pass-through of monetary policy to interest rates for an emerging country in context of transition by estimating a state-space model to test the time-varying behavior and examine the influence of increased economic uncertainty on monetary policy effectiveness.

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