Tornadoes in Hurricane Harvey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Nowotarski ◽  
Justin Spotts ◽  
Roger Edwards ◽  
Scott Overpeck ◽  
Gary R. Woodall
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Texas Coast ◽  
Unique Challenge ◽  
Marginal Environments

AbstractTropical cyclone tornadoes pose a unique challenge to warning forecasters given their often marginal environments and radar attributes. In late August 2017 Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the Texas coast and produced 52 tornadoes over a record-breaking seven consecutive days. To improve warning efforts, this case study of Harvey’s tornadoes includes an event overview as well as a comparison of near-cell environments and radar attributes between tornadic and nontornadic warned cells. Our results suggest that significant differences existed in both the near-cell environments and radar attributes, particularly rotational velocity, between tornadic cells and false alarms. For many environmental variables and radar attributes, differences were enhanced when only tornadoes associated with a tornado debris signature were considered. Our results highlight the potential of improving warning skill further and reducing false alarms by increasing rotational velocity warning thresholds, refining the use of near-storm environment information, and focusing warning efforts on cells likely to produce the most impactful tornadoes.

Assessment and Treatment of Selective Mutism in a Child With Autism Spectrum Disorder

2020 ◽  
pp. 153465012098345
Author(s):  
Mirela Cengher ◽  
Joy C. Clayborne ◽  
Adrianna E. Crouch ◽  
Julia T. O’Connor
Keyword(s):  
Autism Spectrum Disorder ◽  
Social Interaction ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Behavioral Interventions ◽  
Selective Mutism ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Spectrum Disorder ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Assessment And Treatment

Over 60% of children diagnosed with selective mutism are also diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder. Previous research established that behavioral interventions are effective at increasing speech in children with both diagnoses. However, few studies conducted assessments to determine environmental variables that inhibit speech, and such assessments are necessary for the development of effective and efficient treatments. This case study describes an assessment that evaluated the function(s) of selective mutism. The results confirmed that the participant did not talk to avoid social interaction and that mutism occurred primarily in the presence of multiple, unfamiliar people. Our first treatment focused on increasing tolerance for social interaction, demonstrated by an increase in speech production in the presence of unfamiliar people. Our second treatment focused on increasing qualitative aspects of the participant’s speech (i.e., both responses and initiations). Finally, we taught the participant’s parents to implement the treatment in naturalistic settings, and the participant demonstrated generalization of treatment effects across people and settings. Implications for clinical practice and future research are discussed.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF WORST-CLASS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STORM SURGE, AND ITS RETURN PERIOD -CASE STUDY FOR ISE BAY-

2015 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. I_1513-I_1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoko SHIBUTANI ◽  
Sota NAKAJO ◽  
Nobuhito MORI ◽  
Sooyoul KIM ◽  
Hajime MASE
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Ise Bay

scholarly journals Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: a case study of Southeast China coast

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingchuan Nie ◽  
Qingyong Wuxi ◽  
Jiachun Li ◽  
Feng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coupling Effect ◽  
Storm Tide ◽  
Southeast China ◽  
China Coast ◽  
Water Elevation

Abstract. A methodology for assessing the storm tide inundation under TCI (tropical cyclone intensification) and SLR (sea level rise) is proposed, which integrates the trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis. In the trend analysis, the potential TCI and SLR can be estimated based on the long-term historical data of TC (tropical cyclone) and MSL (mean sea level) considering the non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effect; the numerical simulation is relied on the ADCIRC+SWAN model, which is capable of taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect to improve the precision of water elevation prediction; the water elevation is then analyzed on the GIS platform, the potential inundation regions can be identified. Based on this methodology, a case study for the Southeast China coast, one of the storm surge prone areas in China, is presented. The results show that the high water elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries, the maximal water elevations caused by the typhoon wind of 100-year recurrence period can reach as high as 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Non-stationary TCI and SLR due to climate change can further deteriorate the situation and enhance the risk of inundation there, i.e. the potential inundation area would expand by 108 % to about 798 km2 compared with the situation without considering TCI and SLR. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there.

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