Estimating Willingness to Pay from Survey Data: An Alternative Pre-Test-Market Evaluation Procedure

1987 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trudy A. Cameron ◽  
Michelle D. James

Closed-ended contingent valuation surveys are used to assess demands in hypothetical markets and recently have been applied widely to the valuation of (non-market) environmental resources. This interviewing strategy holds considerable promise for more general market research applications. The authors describe a new maximum likelihood estimation technique for use with these special data. Unlike previously used methods, the estimated models are as easy to interpret as ordinary least squares regression results and the results can be approximated accurately by packaged probit estimation routines.

Author(s):  
Jie Xiao ◽  
Bohdan Kulakowski

This study aims at establishing an accurate yet efficient parameter estimation strategy for developing dynamic vehicle models that can be easily implemented for simulation and controller design purposes. Generally, conventional techniques such as Least Square Estimation (LSE), Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and Instrumental Variable Methods (IVM), can deliver sufficient estimation results for given models that are linear-in-the-parameter. However, many identification problems in the engineering world are very complex in nature and are quite difficult to solve by those techniques. For the nonlinear-in-the-parameter models, it is almost impossible to find an analytical solution. As a result, numerical algorithms have to be used in calculating the estimates. In the area of model parameter estimation for motor vehicles, most studies performed so far have been limited either to the linear-in-the-parameter models, or in their ability to handle multi-modal error surfaces. For models with nondifferentiable cost functions, the conventional methods will not be able to locate the optimal estimates of the unknown parameters. This concern naturally leads to the exploration of other search techniques. In particular, Genetic Algorithms (GAs), as population-based global optimization techniques that emulate natural genetic operators, have been introduced into the field of parameter estimation. In this paper, hybrid parameter estimation technique is developed to improve computational efficiency and accuracy of pure GA-based estimation. The proposed strategy integrates a GA and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Choices of input signals and estimation criterion are discussed involving an extensive sensitivity analysis. Experiment-related aspects, such as imperfection of data acquisition, are also considered. Computer simulation results reveal that the hybrid parameter estimation method proposed in this study shows great potential to outperform conventional techniques and pure GAs in accuracy, efficiency, as well as robustness with respect to the initial guesses and measurement uncertainty. Primary experimental validation is also implemented including interpretation and processing of field test data, as well as analysis of errors associated with aspects of experiment design. To provide more guidelines for implementing the hybrid GA approach, some practical guidelines on application of the proposed parameter estimation strategy are discussed.


TRANSPORTES ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiji Kawamoto

<p>Dois são os objetivos deste trabalho: o primeiro e apresentar uma maneira de calibrar o modelo Semi-compensatório do comportamento de escolha do usuário de transporte de passageiros, e o segundo, relatar um resultado preliminar de calibração. Esse novo modelo foi concebido e desenvolvido a partir do pressuposto de que a escolha do meio de locomoção se faz através da avaliação das utilidades intrínsecas das alternativas disponíveis e das utilidades atribuídas às quantias que se "desembolsam" em cada alternativa. A forma não convencional do modelo (não-compensatório e determinístico) requereu a concepção e o desenvolvimento de um processo para a sua calibração: uma aplicação da técnica de maximização da verossimilhança. Esse processo foi aplicado a dados referentes a um grupo de 95 pessoas (50 funcionários da Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos-USP e 45 funcionários do DER-SP, Regional de Campinas). O resultado da calibração mostrou-se satisfatório, pois aproximadamente 85% das escolhas preditas pelo modelo calibrado coincidiram com as escolhas realizadas pelo grupo estudado.</p><p><strong>Abstract:</strong></p><p>There are two objectives in this paper: the first one is to present an alternative way to calibrate travel behaviour models with semi-compensatory structures; the second one is to analyse some preliminary results of a calibration exercise. This new model has been developed based upon the following assumption: the choice of transport mode is made on the basis of the assessment of the intrinsic utilities of available transport alternatives and the utilities attached to the amount of money needed to travel in each of these alternatives. The non-conventional structure of the model (non-compensatory and deterministic) has required the conception and development of a calibration process: an application of the maximum likelihood estimation technique. This process has been applied to a data base which consisted of information obtained from a group of 95 users (50 of them were staff of the São Carlos Engineering School and the remaining were staff of the São Paulo State Highway Department). The calibration result was considered satisfactory as approximately 85% of the choices predicted by the model has coincided with the observed ones.</p>


Author(s):  
Michael Brusco

Logistic regression is one of the most fundamental tools in predictive analytics. Graduate business analytics students are often familiarized with implementation of logistic regression using Python, R, SPSS, or other software packages. However, an understanding of the underlying maximum likelihood model and the mechanics of estimation are often lacking. This paper describes two Excel workbooks that can be used to enhance conceptual understanding of logistic regression in several respects: (i) by providing a clear formulation and solution of the maximum likelihood estimation problem; (ii) by showing the process for testing the significance of logistic regression coefficients; (iii) by demonstrating different methods for model selection to avoid overfitting, specifically, all possible subsets ordinary least squares regression and l1-regularized logistic regression (lasso); and (iv) by illustrating the measurement of relative predictor importance using all possible subsets.


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