Chapter II. The World Economy

1971 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 16-33
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World

Economic growth in the industrial countries fell short of our expectations during the summer, particularly in Japan and Italy and to a lesser extent in West Germany. Despite the resumption of growth in the United Kingdom and a firmly upward trend of production in North America, the aggregate output of the OECD countries increased only slowly and for the year as a whole the rise in their GNP may not reach 3½ per cent in real terms.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1974 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 46-64
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Policy Objectives

We remarked in our last issue : ‘It is not often that a government finds itself confronted with the possibility of a simultaneous failure to achieve all four main policy objectives—of adequate economic growth, full employment, a satisfactory balance of payments and reasonably stable prices.’ In the context this applied specifically to the United Kingdom, but the possibility is becoming increasingly real for the greater part of Western Europe, with West Germany the most obvious exception, and even for Japan it is less remote than it might quite recently have seemed.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1971 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 22-35
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Growth

Developments in the world economy have on the whole been much as we predicted in February. It is becoming increasingly clear that renewed expansion is under way in the United States at a pace which, even if it falls short of the Administration's hopes, is more than compensating for the slowing down in industrial countries outside North America. This deceleration has become quite marked in Japan as well as Western Europe, but we expect a faster pace to be resumed before the end of the year. We still put real growth in OECD countries at around 4 per cent in 1971, unless there is a prolonged steel strike in the United States. This compares with about 2½ per cent last year, and we expect the rising trend to continue into 1972.

Chapter V. The World Overseas

1967 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 53-80
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
The Other ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World

Growth in industrial countries as a whole again amounted to nearly 5 per cent in 1966 (table 47) but the rate slowed down during the summer after moving ahead quite sharply in the first half of the year (table 34).Industrial production was more or less static in North America after August, and in Europe production has actually fallen slightly, reflecting the declines in Germany and the United Kingdom as well as in some of the smaller countries. The relatively favourable overall result in 1966 arose largely from the diversity of phasing as between different countries. France, Italy and Japan had found it necessary some two years ago to adopt the type of anti-inflationary restrictive policies now being applied in most other industrial countries. They therefore now have reserves of unused labour and capacity which enable them to expand without the inhibitions about wage and price inflation which are afflicting the other main industrial countries.

Chapter III. The World Economy

1978 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 35-56
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Complete Data ◽  
Aggregate Production ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World

The growth of output in the industrial countries continues to lag behind their oflicial targets and our own expectations (see the appendix). More complete data confirm our February estimate that aggregate production in the OECD area increased by only about 3½ per cent in 1977, leaving unemployment higher at the end of the year than at the beginning in all major countries other than the United States. Even allowing for measures of fiscal stimulation in most of the major countries we do not expect much change in either 1978 or 1979. Growth should be rather faster in Western Europe (particularly this year in the United Kingdom and next year in France, Italy and some of the smaller countries), but we expect these accelerations to be roughly balanced by progressively smaller increases in output in the United States.

Chapter III. The World Economy

1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 33-63
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Good Deal ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World

The fall in output in the industrial countries in 1975 was substantially greater than we and most other observers foresaw a year ago.After big revisions of the national accounts for the United States, the fall in aggregate output in the member countries of OECD now works out a good deal smaller on our estimates than it did in November. But the final figure still seems likely to be close to 1¾ per cent, compared with our February forecast of ½ per cent. For industrial production we were much wider of the mark, the actual decline being 8–9 per cent as against the 2 per cent that we predicted. Geographically our error was heavily concentrated among the major European countries including the United Kingdom—on the latest figures we actually under-predicted United States output by a substantial amount—and it appears to have sprung from two main sources.

Chapter 2. The World Economy

1968 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 18-31
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
North America ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
National Output ◽  
Parallel Acceleration

Fuller information confirms the estimates which we made six months ago and repeated in February that the total real national output of the industrial countries increased in 1967 by about 3 per cent and the value of world trade by 5 per cent. But, though the errors were not big in relation to the aggregate for the year, it has now become clear that our assessment of trends in the later months was not entirely accurate. The resumption of fairly rapid economic growth in North America of which we were already aware was in fact accompanied to a significantly greater extent than we previously realised by a parallel acceleration in continental Western Europe.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1967 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 14-25
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World

The growth of world industrial production slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year and in spite of relatively mild weather in Western Europe there must have been an actual fall in the first quarter of 1967. The change of trend has been most marked in West Germany, but also has affected a number of other countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom.

Chapter I. The World Economy

1980 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 6-17
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
World Economy ◽  
General Rule ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Important Exception

In the early months of the year the trend of output in OECD countries was still apparently upward—sharply upward in Japan and Italy—with the United Kingdom probably the only important exception to the general rule. There was, however, a growing number of indications that production was running ahead of demand and consumers' expenditure ahead of real disposable incomes. It seems increasingly clear that a period of readjustment must be expected and in the United States it appears to have begun, though otherwise it is little easier than it was three months ago to assess its likely timing, duration or extent. Our own view is that it is imminent but will be neither protracted nor severe.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1972 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 26-39
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The World

Production in the industrial countries has been increasing a little faster than we suggested in May—notably in the United States, where there was a sharp rise in the rate of economic growth in the second quarter. But our forecast of the growth in the aggregate real output of the members of OECD is still in the 5-5½ per cent range for this year. We put it a little higher for 1973, when we expect a slightly slower rate of expansion in North America to be outweighed by faster growth in Japan and Western Europe.

The Economic Situation: Annual Review : Chapter V. The World Economy

1970 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
pp. 59-84
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
The World

Contrary to general expectations at the beginning of the year, real economic growth in the industrial countries in 1969 was not far below the recent average. Last February we predicted that the rise in their combined national outputs would be 4-4½ per cent. It now looks as though it may have been slightly above the upper limit of this range, owing in effect to the unforeseen rapidity of growth in France and, more especially, West Germany, where the increase appears to have been about 8½ per cent, compared with the official German forecast of 4½ per cent and our own figure of 5½ per cent.

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