Chapter I. The World Economy

1980 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 6-17

In the early months of the year the trend of output in OECD countries was still apparently upward—sharply upward in Japan and Italy—with the United Kingdom probably the only important exception to the general rule. There was, however, a growing number of indications that production was running ahead of demand and consumers' expenditure ahead of real disposable incomes. It seems increasingly clear that a period of readjustment must be expected and in the United States it appears to have begun, though otherwise it is little easier than it was three months ago to assess its likely timing, duration or extent. Our own view is that it is imminent but will be neither protracted nor severe.

1991 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 24-44
Author(s):  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Ray Barrell

In the course of the last 2 years economic performance in the major 7 economies has become less synchronised. In 1988 GNP grew by more than 3.5 per cent in all seven economies, with growth rates either at or close to cyclical highs. However for 1991 we expect negative GNP growth for Canada and the United Kingdom, negligible growth in the United States, growth of around 1.5 per cent in France and Italy, and of over 3 per cent in Germany and Japan. Table 1 shows that GNP growth in the major 7 economies is expected to slow to 1.2 per cent in 1991. Chart 1 highlights the different responses among the major 4 economies.


Policy Papers ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 09 ◽  
Author(s):  

This paper is part of a broader on-going effort to bring a more cross-country perspective to bilateral surveillance, taking advantage of a cluster of Article IV consultations with five systemically important economies concluded in July. With the five economies—the United States, the Euro area, China, Japan, and the United Kingdom—accounting for two-thirds of global output and three quarters of capital flows, the nature of linkages and consistency of policy responses across the systemic five (S5) has important implications for the world economy.


1978 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 35-56

The growth of output in the industrial countries continues to lag behind their oflicial targets and our own expectations (see the appendix). More complete data confirm our February estimate that aggregate production in the OECD area increased by only about 3½ per cent in 1977, leaving unemployment higher at the end of the year than at the beginning in all major countries other than the United States. Even allowing for measures of fiscal stimulation in most of the major countries we do not expect much change in either 1978 or 1979. Growth should be rather faster in Western Europe (particularly this year in the United Kingdom and next year in France, Italy and some of the smaller countries), but we expect these accelerations to be roughly balanced by progressively smaller increases in output in the United States.


1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 33-63

The fall in output in the industrial countries in 1975 was substantially greater than we and most other observers foresaw a year ago.After big revisions of the national accounts for the United States, the fall in aggregate output in the member countries of OECD now works out a good deal smaller on our estimates than it did in November. But the final figure still seems likely to be close to 1¾ per cent, compared with our February forecast of ½ per cent. For industrial production we were much wider of the mark, the actual decline being 8–9 per cent as against the 2 per cent that we predicted. Geographically our error was heavily concentrated among the major European countries including the United Kingdom—on the latest figures we actually under-predicted United States output by a substantial amount—and it appears to have sprung from two main sources.


1980 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 8-26

The United Kingdom economy remained almost stagnant in 1979 with GDP being only 0.6 per cent higher than in 1978. Not only is this a dismal end to a generally depressed period of seven years but the outlook for the beginning of the 1980s is even worse, as we discuss in chapter II on the home economy. In comparison with the United States, Japan, West Germany, France and the OECD countries as a whole the UK performance has been slow, as is clear from chart I. However if similar comparisons with the other countries had been made in 1969 or 1959 the UK performance would also have been seen to be relatively slow. This picture of a stagnant aggregate economy in 1979 covers up an underlying picture of considerable fluctuation in the components of the economy.


1967 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 14-25

The growth of world industrial production slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year and in spite of relatively mild weather in Western Europe there must have been an actual fall in the first quarter of 1967. The change of trend has been most marked in West Germany, but also has affected a number of other countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom.


1974 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 23-37

The world economic position and prospects have worsened further in the last three months. In the United States and Japan, in particular, recessionary conditions are proving to be more marked and more prolonged than we had expected, and it looks as though by the end of the year all the major industrial countries, with the possible exception of France, will have experienced at least one quarter in which output has fallen or at best shown no appreciable rise. The other developed countries have fared better, but we no longer expect there to be any growth of output in the OECD area either in the second half of the year or in the year as a whole. In 1975 the position should be rather better, at least by the second half. We expect OECD countries' aggregate GNP to grow by about 2 per cent year-on-year and nearly 3 per cent between the fourth quarters of 1974 and 1975.


Author(s):  
Mary Gilmartin ◽  
Patricia Wood ◽  
Cian O'Callaghan

Questions of migration and citizenship are at the heart of global political debate with Brexit and the election of Donald Trump having ripple effects around the world. Providing new insights into the politics of migration and citizenship in the United Kingdom and the United States, this book challenges the increasingly prevalent view of migration and migrants as threats and of formal citizenship as a necessary marker of belonging. Instead the book offers an analysis of migration and citizenship in practice, as a counterpoint to simplistic discourses. It uses cutting-edge academic work on migration and citizenship to address three themes central to current debates: borders and walls, mobility and travel, and belonging. Through this analysis, a clearer picture of the roots of these politics emerges as well as of the consequences for mobility, political participation and belonging in the 21st century.


Subject MiFID II implementation and compliance Significance The EU’s flagship investor protection reform -- the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) -- will come into force on January 3, 2018, Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner responsible for financial stability, confirmed on October 17, saying that there would not be a further delay. Despite already having been given an extra year's extension, banks are struggling to comply in time because of the directive's complexity. Regulators, too, are behind in expanding their capacity to enforce it. Impacts Firms across the world that do any of their business within the EU will have to comply, not just those registered in the EU. All firms trading in financial instruments must comply but those where this is a small part of their business may be caught unawares. MiFID II will come into effect before the United Kingdom leaves the EU and is likely to be written into UK law post-Brexit. The United States is keen to deregulate, but US firms whose EU activity is not compliant will be punished, possibly harming US-EU relations.


1971 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 22-35

Developments in the world economy have on the whole been much as we predicted in February. It is becoming increasingly clear that renewed expansion is under way in the United States at a pace which, even if it falls short of the Administration's hopes, is more than compensating for the slowing down in industrial countries outside North America. This deceleration has become quite marked in Japan as well as Western Europe, but we expect a faster pace to be resumed before the end of the year. We still put real growth in OECD countries at around 4 per cent in 1971, unless there is a prolonged steel strike in the United States. This compares with about 2½ per cent last year, and we expect the rising trend to continue into 1972.


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