Chapter I. The Home Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 6-17
Keyword(s):  
Slow Growth ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
Wage Inflation

The phase of relatively slow growth, that started early in 1985, continued at least up to the second quarter of this year—the last quarter for which there are full national accounts. GDP was probably then some 1½ or 2 per cent higher than a year before; the slightly higher figure is suggested by the output estimate, the lower one by the average estimate. This increase depended almost wholly on a rise of 5 per cent in consumers' expenditure, whose real incomes rose rapidly as price inflation slowed down and wage inflation did not. Exports barely changed. So did public consumption. Fixed investment increased between the second quarters of 1985 and 1986, but not between the first halves of the two years—a comparison less affected by fluctuations in leasing expenditure in anticipation of changes in capital allowances. Investment in stocks was also constant, comparing half years.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1978 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
pp. 7-23
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
Private And Public

Total real output stagnated completely in 1977. Private and public consumption and gross fixed investment all fell, but this was slightly more than offset by relatively buoyant exports and by some restocking. Despite the very small increase in total final demand, the volume of imports rose by about 4 1/2 per cent, leaving gross domestic product virtually unchanged from its 1976 level. Unemployment rose, albeit erratically, by under 100 thousand during the year, and stood at just under 1.4 million in January of this year (Great Britain, excluding school leavers, seasonally adjusted). The rate of consumer price inflation began to fall in the second half of 1977; the consumer price index is estimated to have been just under 13 per cent higher than a year earlier in the last quarter. The balance of payments on current account moved into surplus in the second half of the year, but revisions to the official estimates of invisible trade mean that the surplus for the year as a whole is now estimated to have been only about £100 million.

The Economic Situation: Chapter I. The Home Economy

1970 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Keyword(s):  
Export Growth ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
The Other ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Exact Amount

The national accounts now published for the fourth quarter of 1969 confirm the estimate given in February's Review that output then was moving ahead a little faster, accelerating the recovery which had followed the first quarter's temporary drop in activity. Each of the three available GDP measures agrees in indicating this movement, although as usual, there is some difference as to the exact amount. As expected, the momentum of export growth slackened, but not by as much as anticipated; on the other hand imports proved to have risen quite strongly against our assumption of some fall and the level of investment proved rather lower than expected. However, perhaps the most important unexpected development indicated by the accounts for the fourth quarter of last year was the strong recovery of stockbuilding.

scholarly journals The Taylor principle is valid under wage stickiness

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Blasselle ◽  
Aurélien Poissonnier
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Time ◽  
Limit Case ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Wage Stickiness ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Monetary Policy Rule ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Wage Inflation

AbstractWe consider the textbook neo-Keynesian model with staggered prices and wages in discrete time. We prove analytically that the Taylor principle holds in this case. When both contracts exhibit sluggish adjustment to market conditions, the policy maker faces a trade-off between stabilizing three welfare relevant variables: output, price inflation and wage inflation. We consider a monetary policy rule designed accordingly: the central banker can react to both inflations and the output gap. In addition to generalizing the Taylor principle we show that the frontier of determinacy embeds the frontier derived with staggered prices only, generalizes the frontier of determinacy in the limit case of continuous time and is symmetric in price and wage inflations.

Price inflation and wage inflation

1988 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Kwasi Fosu ◽  
Shamsul Huq
Keyword(s):  
Price Inflation ◽  
Wage Inflation

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 5-20
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Fixed Investment

There were three forces behind the expansion that got underway last year. There was a burst of consumer spending, probably because inflation was falling and credit more easily obtainable. Fixed investment rose, chiefly because housebuilding was stimulated by lower interest rates and public investment increased. And there was a changeover from a substantial decumulation of stocks to moderate accumulation.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1988 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 6-22
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Significant Deterioration

Comparing the first half of this year with the first half of 1987, domestic demand rose very rapidly, probably by about 8 per cent. Consumer spending, after accelerating for some years, had reached a rate of growth of around 6 per cent. This was now reinforced by a sharp rise in expenditure on fixed investment, which may have been about 10 per cent over this period. This surge in demand was met by a good response from domestic supply, gross domestic product rising by about 5 per cent. But at the same time the boom conditions contributed to a significant deterioration in the balance of payments. A small surplus on current account in the first half of last year has been turned into a deficit at an annual rate of about £11 billion.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1974 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 7-22
Keyword(s):  
National Accounts ◽  
The Third

The economy has continued to move broadly in line with our expectations three months ago, output in the third quarter standing only marginally higher than the level reached a year earlier. The usual annual revision of the national accounts in October has not materially altered the picture of the economy in earlier quarters either.

Chapter III. Industrial Production

1972 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Strike Activity ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
High Level

The industrial situation in 1971 was characterised by exceptionally slow growth in most sectors, by stagnation and decline in a few; by a drop in the high level of strike activity, though not in all sectors; by rapidly rising unemployment, particularly during the second half of the year; and by some signs, during the last few months, of a modest slowing down of the high rate of wage inflation which prevailed in 1970 and most of 1971. The small increase in production and the substantial fall in the number of people in work were accompanied by an unusually large increase in output per head (table 1).

Chapter I. The Economy in 1978

1979 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 13-24
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Public

The overall pattern of changes in real expenditure and output was markedly different in 1978 from that of 1977 (see chart 1). In 1977, largely because of the undertakings given in the Letter of Intent to the IMF of December 1976, fiscal policy was deliberately restrictive. The stance of fiscal policy was made harsher still by the public expenditure shortfall produced by the operation of the relatively unfamiliar cash limits. There was a fairly small fall in public authorities' current spending and much larger falls in capital expenditures. Private consumption, too, fell as stages II and III of the pay policy operated. Trade to 6 per cent of the labour force. Retail price inflation did, however, fall fractionally from 16.5 per cent in 1976 to 15.9 per cent in 1977 (and to 13 per cent through the year).

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 5-20
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Primary Stimulus ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
Dividing Line

The dividing line in recent economic trends came at the beginning of last year when a two-year phase of slow growth came to an end. Total output, which had risen at a rate of only 1½ per cent a year between the first quarter of 1981 and the fourth quarter of 1982, rose by 2½-3 per cent during 1983. This change of tempo coincided with an upturn in the world economy, but owed little to it initially. Exports followed rather than led a recovery which was based mainly on consumer spending, particularly on durables. Most of this spending was financed by borrowing, but the primary stimulus probably came from falling inflation.

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