The U.S. Inflation Process: Does Nominal Wage Inflation Cause Price Inflation, Vice-versa, or Neither?

1999 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 12-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas I. Palley
2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Blasselle ◽  
Aurélien Poissonnier

AbstractWe consider the textbook neo-Keynesian model with staggered prices and wages in discrete time. We prove analytically that the Taylor principle holds in this case. When both contracts exhibit sluggish adjustment to market conditions, the policy maker faces a trade-off between stabilizing three welfare relevant variables: output, price inflation and wage inflation. We consider a monetary policy rule designed accordingly: the central banker can react to both inflations and the output gap. In addition to generalizing the Taylor principle we show that the frontier of determinacy embeds the frontier derived with staggered prices only, generalizes the frontier of determinacy in the limit case of continuous time and is symmetric in price and wage inflations.


1988 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Kwasi Fosu ◽  
Shamsul Huq

1986 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 6-17

The phase of relatively slow growth, that started early in 1985, continued at least up to the second quarter of this year—the last quarter for which there are full national accounts. GDP was probably then some 1½ or 2 per cent higher than a year before; the slightly higher figure is suggested by the output estimate, the lower one by the average estimate. This increase depended almost wholly on a rise of 5 per cent in consumers' expenditure, whose real incomes rose rapidly as price inflation slowed down and wage inflation did not. Exports barely changed. So did public consumption. Fixed investment increased between the second quarters of 1985 and 1986, but not between the first halves of the two years—a comparison less affected by fluctuations in leasing expenditure in anticipation of changes in capital allowances. Investment in stocks was also constant, comparing half years.


1986 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 3-4

Consumers' real incomes and their expenditure are rising quite fast, the slowdown in price inflation unaccompanied yet by any slowdown in wage inflation. But the increase in investment demand has slackened and exports have stagnated since early last year. For the past 12 months or more total output has grown comparatively slowly as a result. It was probably about 1 ½ per cent higher in the second quarter than a year before. Manufacturing production may not have increased at all. These developments are broadly in line with the forecasts we were making a year ago.


1993 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 303-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
A . Erinc Yeldan

The paper analyses the structural causes of the recent Turkish inflationary episode. It is argued that monetary policies based on credit tightening alone are not likely to yield the desired target of price stabilisation. Instead. it is hypothesised that the underlying sources of price inflation are affected by income inequality and conflicting claims on national output; and that excessive credit expansion serves mainly to accommodate the inertial inflation thereby originated in the real sector. Given this hypothesis. the paper employs a computable general equilibrium model to investigate four distinct sources of structural inflation for the Turkish economy: (i) the profit/rent inflation based on monopolistic mark-Ups over prime costs; (ii) imported inflation due to the import-dependent structure of the domestic industry; (iii) cost-push and demand inflation due to urban wage claims; and (iv) inflation that results from the fiscal pressures of the government's budget deficits. The general equilibrium model is in the Keynesian tradition in determining the production level by aggregate demand constraints. Furthermore. it accommodates oligopolistic mark-up rules and working capital expenses for price determination. and nominal wage fixity to determine the level of employment. The general equilibrium analysis of the macro economy suggests that. over the analysed period. conflicting claims of various social classes on national output and conflicting rates of intersectoral accumulation warranted by competing producer groups have become important sources of disequilibria in the domestic economy; and that the distributional conflict among socio-economic classes had a direct impact on the formation of price movements.


1990 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 91-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.G. Fisher ◽  
D.S. Turner ◽  
K.F. Wallis ◽  
J.D. Whitley

The nature of the association between inflation and the level of unemployment has been a persistent issue of controversy over the last three decades. Initially, attention focussed on the statistical relationship between nominal wage inflation and unemployment— the Phillips curve—which could be seen equally as a relationship between price inflation and unemployment, if prices are a constant mark-up on wages. This was quickly adopted as a menu for policy choice, describing the trade-off between increases in unemployment and reductions in inflation. By the 1970s, however, the question was whether a long-run trade-off existed at all, the OECD economies having experienced rising unemployment and, simultaneously, rising inflation. The subsequent re-examination of labour market behaviour introduced the concept of an equilibrium rate (the natural rate) of unemployment which, in the monetarist view, was not amenable to demand management policies. More recent developments reflect a growing concern with the supply side of the economy, including the question of what determines the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).


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