Effects of the pandemic on the natural rate of unemployment in Russia

The article examines unemployment and the impact on the unemployment rate of coronavirus and quarantine restrictions, as well as ways to maintain the unemployment rate no higher than "natural." As well as the peculiarities of employment and unemployment in Russia in 2020-2021. and the following measures to reduce it.

Market Power, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve

We explore the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the United States (1949-2019) through both Bayesian and spectral lenses. We employ Bayesian vector autoregression (“BVAR”) to expose empirical interrelationships between unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Generally, we do find short-run behavior consistent with the Phillips curve, though it tends to break down over the longer term. Emphasis is also placed on Phelps’ and Friedman’s NAIRU theory using both a simplistic functional form and BVAR. We find weak evidence supporting the NAIRU theory from the simplistic model, but stronger evidence using BVAR. A wavelet analysis reveals that the short-run NAIRU theory and Phillips curve relationships may be time-dependent, while the long-run relationships are essentially vertical, suggesting instead that each relationship is primarily observed over the medium-term (2-10 years), though the economically significant medium-term region has narrowed in recent decades to roughly 4-7 years. We pay homage to Phillips’ original work, using his functional form to compare potential differences in labor bargaining power attributable to labor scarcity, partitioned by skill level (as defined by educational attainment). We find evidence that the wage Phillips curve is more stable for individuals with higher skill and that higher skilled labor may enjoy a lower natural rate of unemployment.

The time-varying long-run rate of unemployment in Colombia

After the failure of the Phillips curve to explain the simultaneous ocurrence of rising inflation and unemployment, the classical approach to the theory of unemployment and inflation reemerged (see Friedman 1968; Phelps 1967, 1968). Milton Friedman (1968) defined the natural rate of unemployment as the level that would be ground out by the Walrasian system of general equilibrium equations, provided there is imbedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets, including market imperfections, stochastic variability in demand and supplies, the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor avialabilities, the cost of mobility, and so on.

Unemployment Hysteresis Revisited: The Case of Turkey

This study aims to investigate the stability of unemployment rate in Turkey with the data set covering approximately a century and starting from 1923. The stability of the unemployment rate is examined the unit root tests, the variance ratio tests and the fractional integration models by following the studies in the literature. Almost all tests and models indicate that the unemployment rate series is not stationary. These findings show that the shocks in the economy and the stabilization policies implemented bring about permanent changes in the natural rate of unemployment. While the unemployment hysteresis leads to increasing costs in reducing inflation, it also reveals the necessity of structural reforms to reduce increased unemployment as a result of inflation control or changes in structural factors. In order to eliminate the impact of this hysteresis on economy, it is necessary to give weight to the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, which in the short term may be costly, but this impact can be eliminated in the long term.