A Multi-Level Investment Demand Assessment Model for Renewable-Dominated Power System Planning

To achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the integration of diversified renewable energy will be the principal feature of the planning framework of the smart grid, and the planning direction and focus of power systems would shift to the network transmittability and flexibility enhancement. This paper presents an infrastructure investment demand assessment model based on multi-level analysis method for the renewable-dominated power system planning. First, for the load side, the composite capacity ratio is used to assess the capacity demand of power transformation infrastructure for satisfying the load growth. Then, the renewable energy permeability is adopted as the basis to assess the extensional transmittability capacity for the integration of high renewables. Furthermore, the capacity demand of flexible transmission lines for power grid flexibility enhancement is also estimated. Finally, the amount of unit investment for source-network-load infrastructure capacities can be predicted based on the least square generation adjunctive network and support vector machine (LSGAN-SVM) algorithm. The performance of the proposed model has been tested and benchmarked on a practical-sized power system to verify its effectiveness and feasibility.

impact of the transnationalization process on the consumer market of Ukraine

During the research it was found that globalization in no way affects the content of monopoly capital, which had changed its form because of existence of transnationalization process. The increasing number of transnational corporations not only enhances engagement with the state at the nowadays process of globalization. Minimization the negative consequences of transnational corporations on the consumer market, providing the country’s food security suggested the implementation of a strategy of import substitution and reasonable protectionism. It triggers upgrades foreign economic strategies, improves institutional and organizational and economic efforts of state regulation to ensure the protection of the boundaries of the consumer market. Here are target goals are defined: growth of own production; increase in investment demand; increasing non-raw exports through the export of high-tech, knowledge-based goods and services; intensification of measures within the system of integrated export support.

House Price Forecasting from Investment Perspectives

Housing market dynamics have primarily shifted from consumption- to investment-driven in many countries, including Australia. Building on investment theory, we investigated market dynamics by placing investment demand at the center using the error correction model (ECM). We found that house prices, rents, and interest rates are cointegrated in the long run under the present value investment framework. Other economic factors such as population growth, unemployment, migration, construction activities, and bank lending were also important determinants of the housing market dynamics. Our forecasting results show that the Sydney housing market will continue to grow with no significant price decline in the foreseeable future.

The factors of post-covid recovery in the growth of Ukrainian economy in 2021-2022

Given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, the study focuses on the higher risk of negative long-term consequences of the pandemic in developing economies (particularly in Ukraine). This is due to the limited fiscal support of economies in these countries, in contrast to the numerous measures taken by the governments of developed countries to support citizens and businesses during the corona crisis. The devastating long-term effects of the coronary crisis on the economies and populations of poorer countries will continue until governments take steps towards economic recovery and promotion of economic growth. Based on the identification of the main drivers of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016-2019, as well as the generalization of the experience of post-COVID economic recovery in other countries (including Australia, USA, EU, Japan and advanced Asian countries), the study proposes ways to restore Ukraine’s economy and minimize adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The author proposes to promote the recovery of the Ukrainian economy through expanding domestic (both consumer and investment) demand and intensifying innovation-based development. As shown by the analysis of international experience, consumer demand under the pandemic conditions should be encouraged, in particular through the development of domestic tourism; assistance to small businesses in diversifying their sales channels; promotion of demand in the online market. The author points out that in order to promote investment demand it is necessary to emphasize the development of infrastructure, introduction of temporary investment incentives, and transfer of losses received in previous tax periods. It is proposed to intensify the innovative development of Ukraine by creating an environment favorable to the development of small innovative enterprises (startups), increasing research and development costs, and integrating business, education, and research organizations.

THE FACTORS OF POST-COVID RECOVERY IN THE GROWTH OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN 2021-2022

Given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, the study focuses on the higher risk of negative long-term consequences of the pandemic in developing economies (particularly in Ukraine). This is due to the limited fiscal support of economies in these countries, in contrast to the numerous measures taken by the governments of developed countries to support citizens and businesses during the corona crisis. The devastating long-term effects of the coronary crisis on the economies and populations of poorer countries will continue until governments take steps towards economic recovery and promotion of economic growth. Based on the identification of the main drivers of economic growth in Ukraine in 2016-2019, as well as the generalization of the experience of post- COVID economic recovery in other countries (including Australia, USA, EU, Japan and advanced Asian countries), the study proposes ways to restore Ukraine’s economy and minimize adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The author proposes to promote the recovery of the Ukrainian economy through expanding domestic (both consumer and investment) demand and intensifying innovation-based development. As shown by the analysis of international experience, consumer demand under the pandemic conditions should be encouraged, in particular through the development of domestic tourism; assistance to small businesses in diversifying their sales channels; promotion of demand in the online market. The author points out that in order to promote investment demand it is necessary to emphasize the development of infrastructure, introduction of temporary investment incentives, and transfer of losses received in previous tax periods. It is proposed to intensify the innovative development of Ukraine by creating an environment favorable to the development of small innovative enterprises (startups), increasing research and development costs, and integrating business, education, and research organizations.

Dynamic behavior of a nonlinear macro-financial system

We investigate dynamic behavior of the macro- financial models governed by a system of three first order differential equation involving interest rate, price exponent and investment demand. Using this mathematical model, all the possible behavior that a model shows in the operation of macro-financial system were examined, such as equilibria, stability and Hopf-bifurcations. We find out the ranges of parameters involved in the system under which the equilibria exist the relationship between the parameters and Hopf-bifurcation. Due to changes in conditions in parameters in this financial system, all the behavior of the model as well as the effects of adjustment of the macro-economic policies and adjustment of some parameter on the whole financial system behavior were discussed by applying Ruth-Hurwitz theorem. Hence, It provides better understanding of the lever function of all types of financial policies.

Dynamic behavior of a nonlinear macro-financial system

We investigate dynamic behavior of the macro- financial models governed by a system of three first order differential equation involving interest rate, price exponent and investment demand. Using this mathematical model, all the possible behavior that a model shows in the operation of macro-financial system were examined, such as equilibria, stability and Hopf-bifurcations. We find out the ranges of parameters involved in the system under which the equilibria exist the relationship between the parameters and Hopf-bifurcation. Due to changes in conditions in parameters in this financial system, all the behavior of the model as well as the effects of adjustment of the macro-economic policies and adjustment of some parameter on the whole financial system behavior were discussed by applying Ruth-Hurwitz theorem. Hence, It provides better understanding of the lever function of all types of financial policies.

MORTGAGE LENDING AS A WAY TO INCREASE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN RUSSIA

This article discusses the issue of bringing the indicator «Housing Affordability Ratio» to an indicator that would reflect the number of years required to buy a home. A statistical analysis is carried out on the modifications of the indicator «Housing affordability coefficient», on the demand for mortgage loans in the regional context. The analysis of the demand for mortgage loans, as well as the level of housing security of the population in the regional context, is carried out. The relationship between the mortgage rate and the level of housing prices is analyzed. An assessment of the impact of the policy to reduce the interest rate on mortgage loans on the level of housing prices is given. The following problems of housing security in the Russian Federation are identified: regional disparities in housing security, the growth of investment demand for housing in the context of macroeconomic instability as a factor of slowing down the growth of housing security, threats to the implementation of targeted measures to support the provision of housing for the population. Possible ways to increase housing affordability are analyzed.

Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity

We provide a new channel through which monetary policy has distributional consequences at business cycle frequencies. We show that an unexpected monetary easing increases labor income inequality between high-skilled and less-skilled workers. To rationalize these findings, we build a New Keynesian DSGE model with asymmetric search-and-matching (SAM) frictions and capital-skill complementarity (CSC) in production. We show that CSC on its own introduces a dynamic demand amplification mechanism: the increase in high-skilled employment after a monetary expansion makes complementary capital more productive, encouraging a further rise in investment demand and creating a multiplier effect. SAM asymmetries magnify this channel. (JEL E32, E52, E24, E12, E25, J63)