Substance Abuse Among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism Over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 683-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Looman ◽  
Jeffrey Abracen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Substance Abuse ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Lifetime History ◽  
Prediction Of Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk Assessment ◽  
History Of ◽  
Actuarial Risk

Limitations in actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: a methodological note

2004 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leam Craig ◽  
Kevin Browne ◽  
Ian Stringer ◽  
Anthony Beech
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Actuarial Risk Assessment ◽  
Actuarial Risk

scholarly journals Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments

2007 ◽  
Vol 190 (S49) ◽  
pp. s60-s65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen D. Hart ◽  
Christine Michie ◽  
David J. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Actuarial Risk Assessment ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
The Individual

BackgroundActuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) estimate the probability that individuals will engage in future violence.AimsTo evaluate the ‘margins of error’ at the group and individual level for risk estimates made using ARAIs.MethodAn established statistical method was used to construct 95% CI for group and individual risk estimates made using two popular ARAIs.ResultsThe 95% CI were large for risk estimates at the group level; at the individual level, they were so high as to render risk estimates virtually meaningless.ConclusionsThe ARAIs cannot be used to estimate an individual's risk for future violence with any reasonable degree of certainty and should be used with great caution or not at all. In theory, reasonably precise group estimates could be made using ARAIs if developers used very large construction samples and if the tests included few score categories with extreme risk estimates.

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