scholarly journals Estimating the economic impact of a political conflict on tourism: The case of the Catalan separatist challenge

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Álvarez-Díaz ◽  
Manuel González-Gómez ◽  
María Soledad Otero-Giráldez
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Moving Average Model

As an industry, tourism tends to be extremely responsive and vulnerable to political instabilities. Recently, a political conflict occurred in Spain, a leader in international tourism. In October 2017, the regional parliament of Catalonia asserted its independence from Spain, engendering a negative impact on the tourism sector of Catalonia. The main goal of our study is to assess the economic impact of the Catalan separatist challenge on the region’s tourism sector during the last quarter of 2017. To this end, we conducted a counterfactual analysis, based on forecasts generated by a seasonal autoregressive moving average model and an artificial neural network. The forecasts allowed us to calculate the projected number of international and domestic tourist visitors that would have travelled to Catalonia, had the separatist challenge not occurred. According to our results, the Catalan tourist sector effectively forfeited close to €200 million in revenue from the international tourism market, and around €27 million in revenue from the domestic market. These amounts differ from the economic gains attained by the other Spanish Mediterranean regions that compete with Catalonia to attract tourists.

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of polar motion using MSSA method

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Jin ◽  
Xin Liu ◽  
Jinyun Guo ◽  
Yi Shen
Keyword(s):  
Polar Motion ◽  
Rotation Axis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Rotational Axis ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average Model ◽  
System Service ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Polar Motion Prediction

AbstractPolar motion is the movement of the Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust, reflecting the influence of the material exchange and mass redistribution of each layer of the Earth on the Earth's rotation axis. To better analyze the temporally varying characteristics of polar motion, multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was used to analyze the EOP 14 C04 series released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS) from 1962 to 2020, and the amplitude of the Chandler wobbles were found to fluctuate between 20 and 200 mas and decrease significantly over the last 20 years. The amplitude of annual oscillation fluctuated between 60 and 120 mas, and the long-term trend was 3.72 mas/year, moving towards N56.79 °W. To improve prediction of polar motion, the MSSA method combining linear model and autoregressive moving average model was used to predict polar motion with ahead 1 year, repeatedly. Comparing to predictions of IERS Bulletin A, the results show that the proposed method can effectively predict polar motion, and the improvement rates of polar motion prediction for 365 days into the future were approximately 50% on average.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document