A Point-Based Model to Predict Absolute Risk of Revision in Anatomic Shoulder Arthroplasty

Background Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) has demonstrated good long-term survivorship but early implant failure can occur. This study identified factors associated with shoulder arthroplasty revision and constructed a risk score for revision surgery following shoulder arthroplasty. Methods A validated algorithm was used to identify all patients who underwent anatomic TSA between 2002 and 2012 using population-based data. Demographic variables included shoulder implant type, age and sex, Charlson comorbidity score, income quintile, diagnosis, and surgeon arthroplasty volume. The associations of covariates with time to revision were measured while treating death as a competing risk and were expressed in the Shoulder Arthroplasty Revision Risk Score (SARRS). Results During the study period, 4079 patients underwent TSA. Revision risk decreased in a nonlinear fashion as patients aged and in the absence of osteoarthritis with no influence from surgery type or other covariables. The SARRS ranged from −21 points (5-year revision risk 0.75%) to 30 points (risk 11.4%). Score discrimination was relatively weak 0.55 (95% confidence interval: 0.530.61) but calibration was very good with a test statistic of 5.77 ( df = 8, P = .762). Discussion The SARRS model accurately predicted the 5-year revision risk in patients undergoing TSA. Validation studies are required before this score can be used clinically to predict revision risk. Further study is needed to determine if the addition of detailed clinical data including functional outcome measures and the severity of glenohumeral arthrosis increases the model’s discrimination.

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A population-based comparison of joint survival of hemiarthroplasty versus total shoulder arthroplasty in osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis

The Bone & Joint Journal ◽

10.1302/0301-620x.101b4.bjr-2018-0620.r1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 101-B (4) ◽

pp. 454-460 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

P. L. C. Lapner ◽

M. D. Rollins ◽

C. Netting ◽

M. Tuna ◽

A. Bader Eddeen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Shoulder Arthroplasty ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Total Shoulder Arthroplasty ◽

Population Based ◽

Competing Risk ◽

Income Quintile ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Comorbidity Index ◽

Health Ratio ◽

Adjusted Association

Aims Few studies have compared survivorship of total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) with hemiarthroplasty (HA). This observational study compared survivorship of TSA with HA while controlling for important covariables and accounting for death as a competing risk. Patients and Methods All patients who underwent shoulder arthroplasty in Ontario, Canada between April 2002 and March 2012 were identified using population-based health administrative data. We used the Fine–Gray sub-distribution hazard model to measure the association of arthroplasty type with time to revision surgery (accounting for death as a competing risk) controlling for age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index, income quintile, diagnosis, and surgeon factors. Results During the study period, 5777 patients underwent shoulder arthroplasty (4079 TSA, 70.6%; 1698 HA, 29.4%), 321 (5.6%) underwent revision, and 1090 (18.9%) died. TSA patients were older (TSA mean age 68.4 years (sd 10.2) vs HA mean age 66.5 years (sd 12.7); p = 0.001). The proportion of female patients was slightly lower in the TSA group (58.0% vs 58.4%). The adjusted association between surgery type and time to shoulder revision interacted significantly with patient age. Compared with TSA patients, revision was more common in the HA group (adjusted-health ratio (HR) 1.214, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.53) but this did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion Although there was a trend towards higher revision risk in patients undergoing HA, we found no statistically significant difference in survivorship between patients undergoing TSA or HA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:454–460.

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