The incidence of COVID-19 infection following emergency use authorization of BBIBP-CORV inactivated vaccine in frontline workers in the United Arab Emirates

Based on the findings from the Phase III clinical trials of inactivated SARS COV-2 Vaccine, (BBIBP-CORV) emergency use authorization (EUA) was granted for the vaccine to frontline workers in the UAE. A prospective cohort study was conducted among frontline workers to estimate the incidence rate and risk of symptomatic COVID-19 infection 14 days after the second dose of inoculation with BBIBP-CORV inactivated vaccine. Those who received two doses of the BBIBP-CORV vaccine in the period from 14th of September 2020 (first dose) to 21st of December 2020 (second dose) were followed up for COVID-19 infections. 11,322 individuals who received the two-dose BBIBP-CORV vaccine were included and were followed up post the second dose plus fourteen days. The incidence rate of symptomatic infection was 0.08 per 1000-person days (95% CI 0.07, 0.10). The estimated absolute risk of developing symptomatic infection was 0.97% (95% CI 0.77%, 1.17%). The confirmed seroconversion rate was 92.8%. There were no serious adverse events reported and no individuals suffered from severe disease. Our findings show that vaccinated individuals are likely to remain protected against symptomatic infection or becoming PCR positive for SARS COV 2 following the second dose of the vaccination.

A tool for translating polygenic scores onto the absolute scale using summary statistics

There is growing interest in the clinical application of polygenic scores as their predictive utility increases for a range of health-related phenotypes. However, providing polygenic score predictions on the absolute scale is an important step for their safe interpretation. We have developed a method to convert polygenic scores to the absolute scale for binary and normally distributed phenotypes. This method uses summary statistics, requiring only the area-under-the-ROC curve (AUC) or variance explained (R2) by the polygenic score, and the prevalence of binary phenotypes, or mean and standard deviation of normally distributed phenotypes. Polygenic scores are converted using normal distribution theory. We also evaluate methods for estimating polygenic score AUC/R2 from genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics alone. We validate the absolute risk conversion and AUC/R2 estimation using data for eight binary and three continuous phenotypes in the UK Biobank sample. When the AUC/R2 of the polygenic score is known, the observed and estimated absolute values were highly concordant. Estimates of AUC/R2 from the lassosum pseudovalidation method were most similar to the observed AUC/R2 values, though estimated values deviated substantially from the observed for autoimmune disorders. This study enables accurate interpretation of polygenic scores using only summary statistics, providing a useful tool for educational and clinical purposes. Furthermore, we have created interactive webtools implementing the conversion to the absolute (https://opain.github.io/GenoPred/PRS_to_Abs_tool.html). Several further barriers must be addressed before clinical implementation of polygenic scores, such as ensuring target individuals are well represented by the GWAS sample.

A Primary Screening Method for Liver Cancer in Chronic Hepatitis B Carriers: A Prospective Community-Based Cohort Study

BackgroundPatients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) were invited to receive ultrasound and alpha-protein examination directly in China. However, not all HBV carriers need to be subjected to further tests. This study aimed to develop a feasible primary screening method to narrow down potential high-risk individuals of liver cancer among populations with HBV.MethodsBased on a prospective community-based cohort, potential risk factors were selected as the predictors, including age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, liver cancer family history, liver diseases in mothers, source of water, body mass index (BMI), and psychological trauma. Cox proportional regression model was applied to predict the 3-year absolute risk of liver cancer and derive risk scores. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plot were used to assess the performance of the model. Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation.ResultsAge, sex, BMI, alcohol consumption, liver diseases in mothers, and psychological trauma were independent risks of liver cancer. The 1- to 3-year AUROC of the prediction model was 71.15% (95% CI, 66.88–75.42), 71.16% (95% CI, 67.42–74.90), and 72.95% (95% CI, 64.20–81.70), respectively. The predicted risk was calibrated well with the observed liver cancer risk. Bootstrap resampling showed that C-index was 0.70 (0.67–0.74). A 32-point risk score was also developed and a score over 5 was identified for patients at extremely high risk.ConclusionsA user-friendly primary screening method was created that could estimate the 3-year absolute risk of liver cancer and identify extremely high-risk individuals among the population with HBV.

Risk of mortality and reoperation in hip fracture patients undergoing cemented versus uncemented hemiarthroplasty

Aims The aim of this study was to assess the association of mortality and reoperation when comparing cemented and uncemented hemiarthroplasty (HA) in hip fracture patients aged over 65 years. Methods This was a population-based cohort study on hip fracture patients using prospectively gathered data from several national registries in Denmark from 2004 to 2015 with up to five years follow-up. The primary outcome was mortality and the secondary outcome was reoperation. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality and subdistributional hazard ratios (sHRs) for reoperations are shown with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results A total of 17,671 patients with primary HA were identified (9,484 uncemented and 8,187 cemented HAs). Compared to uncemented HA, surgery with cemented HA was associated with an absolute risk difference of 0.4% for mortality within the period zero to one day after surgery and an adjusted HR of 1.70 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.38). After seven days, there was no longer any association, with an adjusted HR of 1.07 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.28). This continued until five years after surgery with a HR of 1.01 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.06). There was a higher proportion of reoperations due to any reason after five years in the uncemented group with 10.2% compared to the cemented group with 6.1%. This yielded an adjusted sHR of 0.65 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.75) and difference continued up until five years after the surgery, demonstrating a sHR of 0.70 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.83). Conclusion In a non-selected cohort of hip fracture patients, surgery with cemented HA was associated with a higher relative mortality during the first postoperative day compared to surgery with uncemented HA, but there was no difference after seven days up until five years after. In contrast, surgery with cemented HA was associated with lower risk of reoperation up to five years postoperatively compared with surgery with uncemented HA. There was a higher relative mortality on the first postoperative day for cemented HA versus uncemented HA. There was no difference in mortality after seven days up until five years after surgery. There were 6.1% reoperations for cemented HA compared to 10.2% for uncemented HA after five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(1):127–133.

Risk of drug-related upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the total population of the Netherlands: a time-trend analysis

ObjectiveMany prescribed and over-the-counter medications, for example, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Recently, a decrease in prescribing of NSAIDs was observed in the Netherlands, but whether a similar decreasing trend could be observed in the incidence of severe UGIB (either fatal or requiring hospitalisation), contingent on medication prescription, is unknown.DesignWe conducted a cohort study using Dutch national statistics on pharmacy claims, hospitalisation and mortality between 2013 and 2018. We explored the incidence of sex-specific and age-specific severe UGIB in four (sub)populations: (A) total population, (B) without a filled prescrption for NSAIDs, (C) without filled prescriptions for NSAIDs and antithrombotic agents, (D) without any risk factors for UGIB.ResultsThe cumulative incidence of severe UGIB did not decrease throughout the study period, regardless of the subgroup analysis. In the total population, it was 199 per 100 000 inhabitants (95% CI 197 to 201) in 2013–2014 and 260 (95% CI 258 to 263) in 2017–2018. The absolute risk of severe UGIB was 50% lower in the subgroup B than in the full cohort. It decreased further by 50% in the subgroup D when compared with subgroup B. The risk of severe UGIB was 1.5–1.9 fold higher in young women than in young men; an indication of over-the-counter NSAIDs use being more prevalent in women than men in this age group.ConclusionWe found no evidence to support a relationship between reduced prescribing of NSAIDs and the incidence of severe UGIB in the Netherlands since 2013. The relationship was also not observed when we removed the effect of risk factors.

Optimal portfolios for the DC pension fund with mispricing under the HARA utility framework

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This paper studies the optimal portfolio selection for defined contribution (DC) pension fund with mispricing. We adopt the general hyperbolic absolute risk averse (HARA) utility to describe the risk performance of the pension fund managers. The financial market comprises a risk-free asset, a pair of mispriced stocks, and the market index. Using the dynamic programming approach, we construct the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation and obtain the explicit expressions for optimal portfolio choices with two methods. Finally, numerical analysis is presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the optimal portfolios to parameters of the financial market and contribution process. <b>200</b> words.</p>

The Importance of Risk Factors, Methods of Their Calculation and Evaluation, Prognosis in Medicine (Literature Review; Examples of Their Use in Own Clinical Practice) – Second Notice

Introduction. Despite the latest advances in modern medicine, the direct etiological factors of many diseases remain unknown or it is impossible to determine the significance of each of them in their occurrence, so the theory of risk factors is extremely relevant for both theoretical and practical medicine. There are also often situations in which it is necessary to determine the optimal tactics of patient care, because preventive, curative and rehabilitation activities of the doctor require timely prediction of the occurrence probability, further course of the pathological process, its complications, recurrences under the influence of certain environmental factors, threatening and terminal stages, side effects of drugs. Therefore, the need for a practical solution to these problems has become the basis for the theory of risk factors and prognosis methods. The aim of the study. Describe the importance of risk factors and methods of their calculation and evaluation, prognosis in medicine, using literature sources, provide specific examples of their use in own clinical practice. Materials and methods. Content analysis, method of system and comparative analysis, bibliosemantic method of studying the current scientific researches concerning studying of the importance of risk factors and a technique of their calculation and estimation, prognosis in medicine were used. Sources were searched in scientometric databases: PubMed, Medline, Springer, Google Scholar, Research Gate by keywords: risk factors, one-way analysis, multi-factor analysis. 54 literary sources in English and Ukrainian, which highlight the importance of risk factors and methods of their calculation and evaluation, prognosis in medicine were selected and analyzed, we describe the results of their use in our own clinical practice. Results. The concept of risk, as the probability of an adverse event or outcome, is most often used in analytical studies, which are planned to identify the causes and their prevalence of certain conditions. "Risk" cannot be measured directly by the results of information evaluation in one person, but is calculated on the basis of selective observation of a group of persons who are under the influence (exposed group) of a certain factor. Risk factors are potentially pathogenic factors, in contact with which a person may develop a disease. A full analysis of pathological processes, assessment of risk factors and actual risks are impossible without prognosis, as well as multivariate analysis, which is often based on the probabilistic method of A. Wald or the survival curves construction. In practical health care, cases of medical and social research and in clinical studies, it is often necessary to identify the trends (predict) in changes of a certain condition. Conclusions. Determining the risk factors, calculating the actual risks and prognosis play an important role in medicine, because in the doctor's practice there are daily situations that need to determine the optimal tactics taking into account trends, course, severity and results of treatment, therefore, their definition/calculation must be clear and understandable. Depending on the case, the doctor can use the analysis of the score for certain factors, create risk groups, develop a monitoring plan etc. As a result, it becomes possible to create a plan of preventive measures and timely correction of treatment. Keywords: risk, relative risk, absolute risk, chance, forecast.

Intravitreal injections as a leading cause of acute postoperative endophthalmitis—a regional survey in England

Background To evaluate the characteristics, treatment patterns and outcomes of acute postoperative endophthalmitis. Methods Patients presenting with acute postoperative endophthalmitis between January 2017 to December 2019 were identified from hospital records in this multicentre retrospective cohort study. Clinical records were reviewed for visual acuity (VA) at various timepoints, cause of endophthalmitis, microbiological results, treatments and complications. Results Forty-six eyes of 46 patients were included. Intravitreal injections were the leading cause of acute postoperative endophthalmitis (n = 29; 63%), followed by cataract surgery (n = 8; 17%), vitreoretinal surgery (n = 7; 15%), and secondary intraocular lens insertion (n = 2, 4%). The absolute risk of endophthalmitis was 0.024% (1:4132) for intravitreal injections, 0.016% (1:6096) for cataract surgery, and 0.072% (1:1385) for vitreoretinal surgery. The majority of patients (n = 38; 83%) had better VA at 6 months compared to presentation, although fewer (n = 13; 28%) maintained similar or better VA compared to before the precipitating surgery. Twenty-four cases yielded positive culture results, of which staphylococcus epidermidis was the most commonly isolated organism. Microbiological yield was not associated with better final visual outcomes. Patients who underwent therapeutic vitrectomy (n = 15; 33%) had poorer VA at presentation, but subsequently achieved visual outcomes comparable to those who received medical treatment alone. There was no difference in time to presentation, visual outcome and retinal detachment rates among the different causative procedures. Conclusion Intravitreal injections were the most common cause of endophthalmitis in our region, primarily because of their higher frequency compared to other intraocular procedures. In this cohort, the primary procedure had no effect on presentation, management or visual outcomes.

Influence of Timing of Postoperative Weight-Bearing on Implant Failure Rate Among Older Patients With Intertrochanteric Hip Fractures: A Propensity Score Matching Cohort Study

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine whether immediate weight-bearing as tolerated increased the risk of implant failure and decreased functional outcomes compared with restricted weight-bearing.Methods: From January 2010 to December 2018, 1,125 consecutive patients (≥65 years) with intertrochanteric fractures were identified. Of them, 130 patients were excluded, resulting in 995 patients in final cohort (563 receiving immediate weight-bearing and 432 receiving restricted weight-bearing). Propensity score (PS) matching yielded 403 patient pairs. Primary outcome was implant failure at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were implant failure at 3 months, functional outcomes at 12 months, and time to full weight-bearing.Results: Among 806 patients who were matched by PS, the mean age was 77.8 years (SD, 7.6), and 603 patients (74.8%) were women. After matching, there was no significant difference between immediate (10.0% [39/389]) and restricted (9.1%, [35/385]) weight-bearing for implant failure at 12 months (absolute risk difference, 0.93% [95% CI, −3.26 to 5.13%]; RR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.69 to 1.80]; p = 0.66). Additionally, no significant difference was seen for implant failure at 3 months and functional outcomes at 12 months. Patients with immediate weight-bearing had shorter time to full weight-bearing (mean [SD], 87.6 days [7.5] vs. 121.3 days [11.0]; mean difference, −33.7 [95% CI, −35.0 to −32.3]; p &lt; 0.001).Conclusions: Among older patients with intertrochanteric fractures, receipt of immediate weight-bearing as tolerated did not increase risks of implant failure or worsen functional outcomes compared with receipt of restricted weight-bearing. However, patients receiving immediate weight-bearing had a shorter time to full weight-bearing.