Recursive partitioning analysis of patients with oligometastatic non-small cell lung cancer: a retrospective study

Background Local consolidative treatment (LCT) is important for oligometastasis, defined as the restricted metastatic capacity of a tumor. This study aimed to determine the effects and prognostic heterogeneity of LCT in oligometastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Methods This retrospective study identified 436 eligible patients treated for oligometastatic disease at the Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital during 2009–2016. A Cox regression analysis was used to identify potential predictors of overall survival (OS). After splitting cases randomly into training and testing sets, risk stratification was performed using recursive partitioning analysis with a training dataset. The findings were confirmed using a validation dataset. The effects of LCT in different risk groups were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results The T stage (p = 0.001), N stage (p = 0.008), number of metastatic sites (p = 0.031), and EGFR status (p = 0.043) were identified as significant predictors of OS. A recursive partitioning analysis was used to establish a prognostic risk model with the following four risk groups: Group I included never smokers with N0 disease (3-year OS: 55.6%, median survival time [MST]: 42.8 months), Group II included never smokers with N+ disease (3-year OS: 32.8%, MST: 26.5 months), Group III included smokers with T0–2 disease (3-year OS: 23.3%, MST: 19.4 months), and Group IV included smokers with T3/4 disease (3-year OS: 12.5%, MST: 11.1 months). Significant differences in OS according to LCT status were observed in all risk groups except Group IV (p = 0.45). Conclusions Smokers with T3/4 oligometastatic non-small cell lung cancer may not benefit from LCT.