5017 Background: The majority of men with prostate cancer are diagnosed with cancers with low mortality. Such men are treated with radical prostatectomy, external beam radiotherapy, or brachytherapy and followed by serum PSA evaluations. Some men with a rising PSA therapy will have local recurrence or metastasis, but many will have no other evidence of recurrent disease other than a rising PSA. The PSA doubling time has been used to determine which of these men deserve adjuvant hormonal ablation, radiation therapy, or observation. We hypothesize that additional biomarkers will predict which men with a rising PSA post-definitive therapy would benefit from additional therapy. Methods: We designed a custom array containing 526 RNA targets whose expression has been reported to be altered in association with prostate cancer progression. We included targets from Mayo Clinic prostate cancer research. Together with a second commercial array, 530 genes implicated in prostate cancer progression and 420 other cancer-related genes were evaluated. A case-control design was used to test the association of the expression results with outcome. Cases were men post-radical prostatectomy who developed systemic progression within 5 years after PSA recurrence (N=213). Controls were matched men post-radical prostatectomy with PSA recurrence but no evidence of clinical progression within 5 years (N=213). Results: Of 426 eligible patients, paraffin blocks were available on 418 (98.1%). RNA was prepared from all 418 blocks, and both arrays were both successful on 405 (96.9%) RNAs. Upon univariate analysis, 40 genes were highly significantly over- or under-expressed in the cases versus controls (1x10-22 < p < 1x10-7). Recursive partitioning (RP) selected 4 genes (TPX2, FAM13C1, TOPO2A and TSP2) that distinguished cases from controls. Random Forest analysis selected 24 genes (including 3 of the RP 4). A multivariable ROC analysis using these 24 genes generated an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75–0.84). Conclusions: A specific gene expression pattern was significantly associated with systemic progression after PSA recurrence. The measurement of gene expression pattern may be useful for determining which men may benefit from additional therapy after PSA recurrence. No significant financial relationships to disclose.
Nomogram to Predict Insignificant Prostate Cancer at Radical Prostatectomy in Korean Men: A Multi-Center Study
