Bayesian updating the resistance estimate of existing aging bridges with service load history

Author(s):  
C. Wang ◽  
Q.W. Li
Author(s):  
Lesley A. Janosik ◽  
Stephen F. Duffy

This paper, which is the second of two in a series, exercises the viscoplastic constitutive model developed by the authors in the previous article (Janosik and Duffy, 1998). The model accounts for time-dependent phenomena (e.g., creep, rate sensitivity, and stress relaxation) in monolithic ceramics. Additionally, the formulation exhibits a sensitivity to hydrostatic stress, and allows different behavior in tension and compression. Here, the constitutive equations formulated for the flow law (i.e., the Strain rate) and the evolutionary law have been incorporated into computer algorithms for predicting the multiaxial inelastic (creep) response of a given homogeneous state of stress. Numerically simulated examples illustrate the model’s ability to capture the time-dependent phenomena suggested above. For each imposed service (load) history considered, creep curves and viscoplastic flow surfaces are examined to demonstrate the model’s ability to capture the inelastic creep deformation response. No attempt is made here to assess the accuracy of the model in comparison to experiment. A quantitative assessment is reserved for a later date, after the material constants have been suitably characterized for a specific ceramic material.


2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Skorupa ◽  
Tomasz Machniewicz

Application of the Strip Yield Model to Crack Growth Predictions for Structural SteelA strip yield model implementation by the present authors is applied to predict fatigue crack growth observed in structural steel specimens under various constant and variable amplitude loading conditions. Attention is paid to the model calibration using the constraint factors in view of the dependence of both the crack closure mechanism and the material stress-strain response on the load history. Prediction capabilities of the model are considered in the context of the incompatibility between the crack growth resistance for constant and variable amplitude loading.


Author(s):  
Spyros Galanis

AbstractAmbiguity sensitive preferences must fail either Consequentialism or Dynamic Consistency (DC), two properties that are compatible with subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating, while forming the basis of backward induction and dynamic programming. We examine the connection between these properties in a general environment of convex preferences over monetary acts and find that, far from being incompatible, they are connected in an economically meaningful way. In single-agent decision problems, positive value of information characterises one direction of DC. We propose a weakening of DC and show that one direction is equivalent to weakly valuable information, whereas the other characterises the Bayesian updating of the subjective beliefs which are revealed by trading behavior.


Author(s):  
Andrea Morone ◽  
Rocco Caferra ◽  
Alessia Casamassima ◽  
Alessandro Cascavilla ◽  
Paola Tiranzoni

AbstractThis work aims to identify and quantify the biases behind the anomalous behavior of people when they deal with the Three Doors dilemma, which is a really simple but counterintuitive game. Carrying out an artefactual field experiment and proposing eight different treatments to isolate the anomalies, we provide new interesting experimental evidence on the reasons why subjects fail to take the optimal decision. According to the experimental results, we are able to quantify the size and the impact of three main biases that explain the anomalous behavior of participants: Bayesian updating, illusion of control and status quo bias.


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