Forward Price Modelling

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Viviana Fanelli
Keyword(s):  
Forward Price

Financial Factors Affecting Price-to-Earnings Ratios in Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-61
Author(s):  
Natalia Popa Antalovschi ◽  
Raymond A. K. Cox
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Financial Factors ◽  
Natural Logarithm ◽  
Forward Price

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to ascertain which financial factors affect the price-to-earnings ratios of Canadian firms. Methodology: A sample of 578 Canadian firms, across 11 industries, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange during 2011 to 2018 is examined. Stock prices and financial statements accounts data is collected from S & P Capital IQ. We compute 27 financial factors to use as independent variables to regress on the price-to-earnings ratio dependent variables employing the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) utilizing the software program’s forced, forward, and backward selection methods. Robustness tests are conducted using alternative dates (after the fiscal year end) to discover which model of financial factors best explains the forward price-to-earnings ratio as well as other statistical methods such as analysis of variance. Results: We find a unique model for each of the 3 models based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio date. The financial factors that explain each of the dates after the end of the fiscal year (1 month, 2 months, and 3 months) are the 4 variables: net profit margin, return on investment, total asset turnover, and the natural logarithm of the total assets. For model 3 (1 month after fiscal year end), in addition to the previous 4 factors, the dividends per share is part of the regression equation. All 3 models have strong statistically significant results at an alpha level of one percent. Further, industry effects are deduced and presented. Unique contribution to theory, policy, and practice: The results are unique to a Canadian sample of firms post- International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption. Companies can utilize the empirical findings to manage their financial performance to maximize their price-to-earnings ratio. A product of a firm’s higher price-to-earnings ratio is a lower cost of capital which expands the corporation’s investment opportunities. Investors can apply this research to develop investment strategies hinged on price-to-earnings ratios to augment investment returns.

Equilibrium Price Dynamics of Emission Permits

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 1653-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Hitzemann ◽  
Marliese Uhrig-Homburg
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Equilibrium Price ◽  
Contingent Claims ◽  
Emission Permits ◽  
Emission Permit ◽  
Environmental Markets ◽  
Forward Price ◽  
Highly Nonlinear

This article presents a stochastic equilibrium model for environmental markets that allows us to study the characteristic properties of emission permit prices induced by the design of today’s cap-and-trade systems. We characterize emission permits as highly nonlinear contingent claims on economy-wide emissions and reveal their hybrid nature between investment and consumption assets. Our model makes predictions about the dynamics and volatility structure of emission permit prices, the forward price curve, and the implications for option pricing in this market. Empirical evidence from existing emissions markets shows that the model explains the stylized facts of emission permit prices and related derivatives.

The Forward Price of Gold

1938 ◽  
Vol 48 (192) ◽  
pp. 748
Author(s):  
Paul Einzig
Keyword(s):  
Forward Price

Financial market buoyancy is fragile amid rising risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Forward Price ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Financial market momentum. Significance Global bond and equity markets continue to rally after making their largest annual gains since 2010 last year. Markets are brushing off a plethora of risks, from the escalation in tensions between Tehran and Washington to concerns about weak global growth, particularly in Europe. While valuations are becoming dangerously stretched -- the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the benchmark S&P 500 index is at the highest since 2011 -- the absence of a credible catalyst for a sharp sell-off is helping to underpin positive sentiment. Financial conditions remain exceptionally loose. Impacts Demand for government bonds is building momentum and the ten-year US treasury yield is just 40 basis points above its all-time low of 2017. Emerging-market bond and equity fund inflows have momentum and while several risks could curb this, a sustained reversal is unlikely. The Shanghai stock market has lost 5% since Wuhan’s coronavirus outbreak spread beyond China on January 13; further falls are likely. Despite low market volatility, government debt markets are much more pessimistic than equity markets about global growth prospects.

scholarly journals The P/E Ratio And Profitability

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Wan-Ting (Alexandra) Wu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
Forward Price ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Sale Growth ◽  
Excess Stock Returns

<p>This paper examines the relation between the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and profitability. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of Ohlson and Zhan (2006), this paper finds a U-shaped relation between the forward P/E ratio and return on equity (ROE). Besides, firms with high P/E ratios tend to have lower ROE in the subsequent years, and their ROE is very volatile and wide-distributed. Using the GSCORE from Mohanram (2005), this paper separates winners from losers among high P/E firms. Firms with high GSCORE yield higher earnings growth, sale growth, ROE, and excess stock returns in the following years.</p>

A Resolution to Valuation Conflicts of Swaptions/Caps and OIS/LIBOR

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Lognormal Distribution ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Forward Rate ◽  
Adjustment Problem ◽  
Libor Market Model ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Forward Price ◽  
Adjustment Term

In this article, the authors provide a unified valuation framework under which a multicurve economy can be established and caps/floors and swaptions can be consistently priced. Furthermore, if a lognormal distribution is employed for the forward price (or 1 plus forward rate), then a “model-free” volatility calibration can be achieved, and all swaptions and caps/floors are perfectly repriced. This article leverages earlier work by Chen, Hsieh, and Huang (2017) who fix a crucial drift-adjustment problem of the traditional LIBOR market model (LMM) where the LIBOR rates follow a lognormal distribution. By assuming 1 + LIBOR to be lognormal (hence LIBOR is shifted lognormal), Chen, Hsieh, and Huang achieve an exact and deterministic drift-adjustment term. In this article, they extend the model to provide a perfect calibration to both swaptions and caps/floors (which is not doable under the traditional LMM), and by using a foreign currency analogy, they show that the model supports multiple curves, which is a key element to overnight index swap (OIS) discounting.

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