PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE MAXIMAL LOAD OF INDUSTRIAL MACHINES

This study describes the statistical analysis of peak forces of industrial washing machines. The data source comes from twelve different machines. The measurements are done using a force gauge installed in places for fastening screws. A new software based on LabView has been developed to gauge the acting forces. To determine extreme force values, various probability distributions are applied. Furthermore, a convex combination of lognormal distribution is used in more complicated cases. The parameters of the lognormal mixtures are determined using modified an Expectation-maximization algorithm. Finally, the achieved results are interpreted with regard to the engineering design and to the operating reliability.

The Neutrosophic Lognormal Model in Lifetime Data Analysis: Properties and Applications

The lognormal distribution is more extensively used in the domain of reliability analysis for modeling the life-failure patterns of numerous devices. In this paper, a generic form of the lognormal distribution is presented that can be applied to model many engineering problems involving indeterminacies in reliability studies. The suggested distribution is especially effective for modeling data that are roughly symmetric or skewed to the right. In this paper, the key mathematical properties of the proposed neutrosophic lognormal distribution (NLD) have been derived. Throughout the study, detailed examples from life-test data are used to confirm the mathematical development of the proposed neutrosophic model. The core ideas of the reliability terms, including the neutrosophic mean time failure, neutrosophic hazard rate, neutrosophic cumulative failure rate, and neutrosophic reliability function, are addressed with examples. In addition, the estimation of two typical parameters of the NLD by mean of maximum likelihood (ML) approach under the neutrosophic environment is described. A simulation experiment is run to determine the performance of the estimated parameters. Simulated findings suggest that ML estimators effectively estimate the unknown parameters with a large sample size. Finally, a real dataset on ball bearings failure times has been considered an application of the proposed model.

Lorenz and Polarization Orderings of the Double-Pareto Lognormal Distribution and Other Size Distributions

Polarization indices such as the Foster-Wolfson index have been developed to measure the extent of clustering in a few classes with wide gaps between them in terms of income distribution. However, Zhang and Kanbur (2001) failed to empirically find clear differences between polarization and inequality indices in the measurement of intertemporal distributional changes. This paper addresses this ‘distinction' problem on the level of the respective underlying stochastic orders, the polarization order (PO) in distributions divided into two nonoverlapping classes and the Lorenz order (LO) of inequality in distributions. More specifically, this paper investigates whether a distribution F can be either more or less polarized than a distribution H in terms of the PO if F is more unequal than H in terms of the LO. Furthermore, this paper derives conditions for the LO and PO of the double-Pareto lognormal (dPLN) distribution. The derived conditions are applicable to sensitivity analyses of inequality and polarization indices with respect to distributional changes. From this application, a suggestion for appropriate two-class polarization indices is made.

The impacts of climate change on rainfall modeling in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul

The most significant and influential meteorological element in environmental conditions and human activities is precipitation. The objective of this study was to adjust eight probability distributions to monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, using a time series of data (1983-2013) by the National Meteorological Water Agency (ANA). The performance evaluation of different probability distribution models was assessed by the quality of fit of the selected probability distributions for precipitation data. Quality tests as chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Anderson-Darling (AD), the information criteria as Akaike (AIC) and the Bayesian criterion (BIC) were used. Then the mean root square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) were applied. The analyzes were made monthly, annually and by seasons. The 3-parameter Lognormal distribution performs the best for all twelve months and provides the best-fit to the monthly rainfall data. Thus characterizing a dry period that runs from May to September and a rainy period between the months of October and April, it was observed that the 3-parameter Lognormal distribution has best adjustment for spring and summer, and for winter and autumn the 2-parameter Gamma and 3-parameter Gamma distribution performed better. For annual observations, the function that best fits is 3-parameter Weibull distribution.

Confidence Intervals for the Coefficient of Quartile Variation of a Zero-inflated Lognormal Distribution

There are many types of skewed distribution, one of which is the lognormal distribution that is positively skewed and may contain true zero values. The coefficient of quartile variation is a statistical tool used to measure the dispersion of skewed and kurtosis data. The purpose of this study is to establish confidence and credible intervals for the coefficient of quartile variation of a zero-inflated lognormal distribution. The proposed approaches are based on the concepts of the fiducial generalized confidence interval, and the Bayesian method. Coverage probabilities and expected lengths were used to evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches via Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the simulation studies show that the fiducial generalized confidence interval and the Bayesian based on uniform and normal inverse Chi-squared priors were appropriate in terms of the coverage probability and expected length, while the Bayesian approach based on Jeffreys' rule prior can be used as alternatives. In addition, real data based on the red cod density from a trawl survey in New Zealand is used to illustrate the performances of the proposed approaches. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01289 Full Text: PDF