Some Practical Aspects of Model Application for Real-Time Operational Forecasting

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols are an important element of Earth's climate system and have significant impacts on the environment and on human health. Global aerosol modeling has been increasingly used for operational forecasting and as support for decision making. For example, aerosol analyses and forecasts are routinely used to provide air quality information and alerts in both civilian and military applications. The growing demand for operational aerosol forecasting calls for additional observational data that can be assimilated into models to improve model accuracy and predictive skill. These factors have motivated the development, testing, and release of a new near real-time (NRT) level 2 (L2) aerosol product from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on NASA's Terra platform. The NRT product capitalizes on the unique attributes of the MISR aerosol retrieval approach and product contents, such as reliable aerosol optical depth as well as aerosol microphysical information. Several modifications are described that allow for rapid product generation within a 3 h window following acquisition of the satellite observations. Implications for the product quality and consistency are discussed and compared to the current operational L2 MISR aerosol product. Several ways of implementing additional use-specific retrieval screenings are also highlighted.

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An Analysis of NCEP Tropical Cyclone Vitals and Potential Effects on Forecasting Models

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-11-00063.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 27 (3) ◽

pp. 744-756 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Sam Trahan ◽

Lynn Sparling

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Real Time ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽

Special Focus ◽

Structure Information ◽

Forecasting Models ◽

The North ◽

Operational Forecasting ◽

Ensemble Systems

Abstract This study analyzes the Tropical Cyclone Vitals Database (TCVitals), which contains cyclone location, intensity, and structure information, generated in real time by forecasters. These data are used to initialize cyclones in several NCEP operational forecasting models via bogusing and vortex relocation methods. In many situations, time is of the essence and the TCVitals database represents the best real-time estimate of the cyclone state possible in real time, given the limitations of available data and time constraints inherent in real-time forecasting. NCEP and other users of TCVitals have a responsibility to work around the inevitable limitations of what forecasters can do for TCVitals in real time. With ensemble systems becoming available, a way to do that will soon be available. However, the TCVitals’ limitations must first be quantitatively understood so that model developers can take them into account. That is the motivation for the present study, which compares the TCVitals storm location and intensity to postseason reanalysis values found in the best-track database and statistically compares the TCVitals storm depth to 946 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) overpasses. All storms of tropical depression strength or stronger in all basins are analyzed, with a special focus on National Hurricane Center TCVitals for the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins, the main areas of responsibility for NCEP. In addition, the sensitivity to TCVitals on the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model is examined by rerunning the 2011 HWRF for the 2010 North Atlantic season twice: once with TCVitals input and once with best-track input.

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Real time epidemic modeling using Richards model: application for the Covid-19 outbreak in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Journal of Physics Conference Series ◽

10.1088/1742-6596/1751/1/012025 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1751 ◽

pp. 012025

Author(s):

M N Huda ◽

Sifriyani ◽

Fitriani

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Epidemic Modeling ◽

Model Application ◽

Richards Model ◽

East Kalimantan

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Introducing the MISR Level 2 Near Real-Time Aerosol Product

10.5194/amt-2021-71 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marcin L. Witek ◽

Michael J. Garay ◽

David J. Diner ◽

Michael A. Bull ◽

Felix C. Seidel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Atmospheric Aerosols ◽

Predictive Skill ◽

Aerosol Retrieval ◽

Improve Model ◽

Operational Forecasting ◽

Military Applications ◽

Aerosol Modeling ◽

Earth’S Climate ◽

Level 2

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols are an important element of Earth’s climate system, and have significant impacts on the environment and on human health. Global aerosol modeling has been increasingly used for operational forecasting and as support to decision making. For example, aerosol analyses and forecasts are routinely used to provide air quality information and alerts in both civilian and military applications. The growing demand for operational aerosol forecasting calls for additional observational data that can be assimilated into models to improve model accuracy and predictive skill. These factors have motivated the development, testing, and release of a new near real-time (NRT) level 2 (L2) aerosol product from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on NASA’s Terra platform. The NRT product capitalizes on the unique attributes of the MISR aerosol retrieval approach and product contents, such as reliable aerosol optical depth as well as aerosol microphysical information. Several modifications are described that allow for rapid product generation within a three-hour window following acquisition of the satellite observations. Implications for the product quality and consistency are discussed as compared to the current operational L2 MISR aerosol product. Several ways of implementing additional use-specific retrieval screenings are also highlighted.

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