Misspecified change-point estimation problem for a Poisson process

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (A) ◽  
pp. 122-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali S. Dabye ◽  
Yury A. Kutoyants

Consider an inhomogeneous Poisson process X on [0, T] whose unknown intensity function ‘switches' from a lower function g∗ to an upper function h∗ at some unknown point θ∗. What is known are continuous bounding functions g and h such that g∗(t) ≤ g(t) ≤ h(t) ≤ h∗(t) for 0 ≤ t ≤ T. It is shown that on the basis of n observations of the process X the maximum likelihood estimate of θ∗ is consistent for n →∞, and also that converges in law and in pth moment to limits described in terms of the unknown functions g∗ and h∗.

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (A) ◽  
pp. 122-130
Author(s):  
Ali S. Dabye ◽  
Yury A. Kutoyants

Consider an inhomogeneous Poisson process X on [0, T] whose unknown intensity function ‘switches' from a lower function g∗ to an upper function h∗ at some unknown point θ ∗. What is known are continuous bounding functions g and h such that g∗ (t) ≤ g(t) ≤ h(t) ≤ h∗ (t) for 0 ≤ t ≤ T. It is shown that on the basis of n observations of the process X the maximum likelihood estimate of θ ∗ is consistent for n →∞, and also that converges in law and in pth moment to limits described in terms of the unknown functions g∗ and h ∗.


2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1215-1233 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. V. Chernoyarov ◽  
Yu. A. Kutoyants ◽  
A. Top

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 694-714 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. K. Jandhyala ◽  
P. Liu ◽  
S. B. Fotopoulos ◽  
I. B. MacNeill

AbstractA comprehensive change-point analysis of annual radiosonde temperature measurements collected at the surface, troposphere, tropopause, and lower-stratosphere levels at both the South and North Polar zones has been done. The data from each zone are modeled as a multivariate Gaussian series with a possible change point in both the mean vector as well as the covariance matrix. Prior to carrying out an analysis of the data, a methodology for computing the large sample distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the change point is first developed. The Bayesian approach for change-point estimation under conjugate priors is also developed. A simulation study is carried out to compare the maximum likelihood estimator and various Bayesian estimates. Then, a comprehensive change-point analysis under a multivariate framework is carried out on the temperature data for the period 1958–2008. Change detection is based on the likelihood ratio procedure, and change-point estimation is based on the maximum likelihood principle and other Bayesian procedures. The analysis showed strong evidence of change in the correlation between tropopause and lower-stratosphere layers at the South Polar zone subsequent to 1981. The analysis also showed evidence of a cooling effect at the tropopause and lower-stratosphere layers, as well as a warming effect at the surface and troposphere layers at both the South and North Polar zones.


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