scholarly journals Welfare Cost of Business Cycles with Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and a Preference for Robustness

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Ellison ◽  
Thomas J. Sargent
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Consumption Risk ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Consumption Fluctuations

The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of uninsured idiosyncratic consumption risk. It is known from Barillas, Hansen, and Sargent (2009) to increase if agents care about robustness to model misspecification. We calculate the cost of business cycles in an economy where agents face idiosyncratic consumption risk and fear model misspecification, finding that idiosyncratic risk has a greater impact on the cost of business cycles if agents already fear model misspecification. Correspondingly, endowing agents with fears about misspecification is more costly when there is already idiosyncratic risk. (JEL D81, E13, E21, E32)

Individual Consumption Risk and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1488-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano De Santis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Welfare Gain ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Consumption Insurance ◽  
Consumption Risk ◽  
Consumption Fluctuations ◽  
Overall Risk

We measure the welfare gain from removing aggregate consumption fluctuations in a model where each individual faces incomplete consumption insurance. We show that, because this welfare gain is a convex function of the overall consumption risk—aggregate plus idiosyncratic—each individual faces, to gauge the magnitude of the gain, it is important to match individuals' overall risk prior to any policy. In an economy calibrated to match individuals' overall risk, even removing 10 percent of aggregate fluctuations can result in a large welfare gain. Further, large gains do not necessarily depend on the countercyclical nature of idiosyncratic risk. (JEL E21, E32)

scholarly journals Overcoming Adverse Selection: How Public Intervention Can Restore Market Functioning

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Tirole
Keyword(s):  
Mechanism Design ◽  
Adverse Selection ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Public Intervention ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost

The paper provides a first analysis of market jump starting and its two-way interaction between mechanism design and participation constraints. The government optimally overpays for the legacy assets and cleans up the market of its weakest assets, through a mixture of buybacks and equity injections, and leaves the firms with the strongest legacy assets to the market. The government reduces adverse selection enough to let the market rebound, but not too much, so as to limit the cost of intervention. The existence of a market imposes no welfare cost. (JEL D82, D83, G01, G31, H81)

scholarly journals Banks, Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Leibrecht ◽  
Johann Scharler
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
International Diversification ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Consumption Risk

Abstract In this article, we explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk in a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk.

scholarly journals International Co-movements and Business Cycles Synchronization Among Advanced Economies: A SPBVAR Evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Antonio Pacifico
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Institutional Issues ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Dynamic Panels ◽  
Structural Panel

This paper provides new empirical insights in order to give a relevant contribution to the more recent literature on international transmission of shocks and on business cycles synchronization across developed economies, with a particular emphasis in the most recent recession and post-crisis consolidation. Interdependence, commonality and heterogeneity in macroeconomic-financial linkages are also identified in order to depict the perplexed nature of modern economies. A time-varying Structural Panel Bayesian Vector Autoregression (SPBVAR) model is developed to deal with model misspecification and unobserved heterogeneity problems when studying multicountry dynamic panels. The results argue for significant synchronization behind a relevant consolidation without delay. Additionally, consolidation is needed to underpin confidence in fiscal solvency at the country level and prevent adverse international externalities. My evidence calls for more integrated macroprudential and financial stability policies. It also shows that, when formulating policies or forecasting, additional transmission channels and economic-institutional issues through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the GDP growth need to be accounted for in muticountry setups.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document