Individual Consumption Risk and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 1488-1506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano De Santis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Welfare Gain ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Consumption Insurance ◽  
Consumption Risk ◽  
Consumption Fluctuations ◽  
Overall Risk

We measure the welfare gain from removing aggregate consumption fluctuations in a model where each individual faces incomplete consumption insurance. We show that, because this welfare gain is a convex function of the overall consumption risk—aggregate plus idiosyncratic—each individual faces, to gauge the magnitude of the gain, it is important to match individuals' overall risk prior to any policy. In an economy calibrated to match individuals' overall risk, even removing 10 percent of aggregate fluctuations can result in a large welfare gain. Further, large gains do not necessarily depend on the countercyclical nature of idiosyncratic risk. (JEL E21, E32)

scholarly journals Welfare Cost of Business Cycles with Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and a Preference for Robustness

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Ellison ◽  
Thomas J. Sargent
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Consumption Risk ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Consumption Fluctuations

The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of uninsured idiosyncratic consumption risk. It is known from Barillas, Hansen, and Sargent (2009) to increase if agents care about robustness to model misspecification. We calculate the cost of business cycles in an economy where agents face idiosyncratic consumption risk and fear model misspecification, finding that idiosyncratic risk has a greater impact on the cost of business cycles if agents already fear model misspecification. Correspondingly, endowing agents with fears about misspecification is more costly when there is already idiosyncratic risk. (JEL D81, E13, E21, E32)

scholarly journals News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 993-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Franck Portier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Widespread Belief ◽  
Way Of Thinking ◽  
The Many

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of the role of news in business cycles can be established. (JEL D83, D84, E13, E32, O33)

scholarly journals Banks, Financial Markets and International Consumption Risk Sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Leibrecht ◽  
Johann Scharler
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
International Diversification ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Consumption Risk

Abstract In this article, we explore how characteristics of the domestic financial system influence the international allocation of consumption risk in a sample of OECD countries. Our results show that the extent of risk sharing achieved does not depend on the overall development of the domestic financial system per se. Rather, it depends on how the financial system is organized. Countries characterized by developed financial markets are less exposed to idiosyncratic risk, whereas the development of the banking sector contributes little to the international diversification of consumption risk.

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