Development of a conceptual model for research on cyclical variation of patient reported outcome measurements (PROMs) in patients with chronic conditions: a scoping review

Background Although circadian, seasonal, and other cycles have been observed for a number of chronic conditions, their impact on patient reported outcomes measurements (PROMs) has not been systematically explored, rendering our understanding of the effect of time of measurement on PROM scores very limited. The aim was to conduct a scoping review to determine what is known about how intra-individual cyclical variation might affect the way individuals with chronic conditions respond to patient-reported outcome measures. Methods A protocol of a systematic scoping review was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42017058365). We developed a search strategy based on previous relevant reviews and implemented it in: MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. No restrictions were placed on article types and backward and forward citation searches were conducted. Screening and data extraction were independently completed by up to four reviewers. An adapted version of CASP criteria was used to appraise the quality of included articles. Concepts that were important in understanding the impact of cyclical variation on PROM scores were elicited from the papers and iteratively refined through discussion amongst the authors. Results 2420 references resulted from the searches, with 33 articles meeting the inclusion criteria. Most study designs included observational research (particularly ecological momentary assessment), 2 were RCTs and 2 were systematic reviews. Studies mainly focused on specific health conditions: mental health, respiratory and musculoskeletal. There was a lack of qualitative research and theoretical framework to explore these concepts more fully. Five overarching concepts emerged: variation in outcomes, variation of scores, psychological status, individual factors, and environmental/situational factors. A conceptual model was developed outlining the relationships between these concepts. Conclusions There is empirical evidence that supports cyclical variation in PROM scores across different chronic conditions, with potential very significant implications for administration and interpretation of PROMs. The proposed conceptual model can support further research in this area.

Modelling cyclical variation in the cost pass-through: a regime-dependent approach

In this study a regime-dependent ARDL model is developed in order to investigate how labour costs feed through into prices conditional on the business cycle position. Its estimates enable inference on the cyclical behaviour of markups. The proposed methodology is applied to the Polish industrial sectors. The obtained estimates point to procyclicality as the prevailing pattern of markup adjustment. Thus, overall markups in the Polish industry seem to have a mitigating effect on business cycle fluctuations. The degree of procyclicality seems, however, to be positively correlated with the degree of the industry’s competitiveness.

New Evidence on Cyclical Variation in Average Labor Costs in the United States

We provide new evidence on the cyclicality of employers' real labor costs using BLS establishment job data for the 1982–2018 period. Average straight-time wages have become countercyclical since the financial crisis and the subsequent Great Recession. So have benefit expenditures and overall labor costs, as well as major benefit expenditures, including health insurance and Social Security. Consistent with prior literature, we find that total earnings—the sum of straight-time wages, bonuses, and overtime earnings—were procyclical before 2008; even earnings have become countercyclical since then. The increasing countercyclicality of labor costs is largely attributable to periods with below-trend GDP.

The Forage Fish Rollercoaster

The Forage Fish Rollercoaster. Forage fish are the small fishes such as sardines, anchovy, mackerel, and herring that are among the most abundant fish in the sea and form the base of the fish food chain. They are often the dominant food for predatory fish, marine mammals, and marine birds. Forage fish are used both for direct human consumption and for the production of fishmeal and fish oil used as livestock and aquaculture feed. Many species of forage fish have shown vast cyclical variation in abundance long before industrial fishing began, and this complicates understanding how fishing affects their abundance. A recent concern is the effect that fishing of forage fish has on the abundance of their predators.