A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lock-down, Testing, and Tracing

We study the optimal lock-down for a planner who controls the fatalities of COVID-19 while minimizing the output costs of the lock-down. The policy prescribes a severe lock-down beginning a few weeks after the outbreak, covering almost 50 percent of the population after a month, with a total duration shy of 4 months. The intensity of the optimal lock-down depends on the gradient of the fatality rate with respect to the infected and the availability of antibody testing, which yields a welfare gain of 2 percent of GDP. We also study test-tracing-quarantine, which we show to be complementary to lock-down. (JEL E23, I12, I15, I18)

Measurement of inequality of opportunity: A normative approach

We develop a normative approach to the measurement of inequality of opportunity. That is, we measure inequality of opportunity by the welfare gain obtained in moving from the actual income distribution to the optimal income distribution of the total available income. Our study brings together the main approaches in the literature: we axiomatically characterize social welfare functions, we obtain prominent allocation rules as their optima, and we derive familiar classes of inequality of opportunity measures. Our analysis captures moreover the key philosophical distinctions in the literature: ex post versus ex ante compensation, and liberal versus utilitarian reward.

Measuring the efficiency of VAT reforms: a demand system simulation approach

Using an estimated demand model, we simulate household-level demand responses to the recent Slovak value added tax (VAT) reform and its hypothetical alternatives. We use simulation results, instead of the standard approximate measures, for constructing an improved efficiency indicator of tax reforms as a ratio of welfare and fiscal revenue effects and call it marginal welfare gain (MWG). We also contribute to the literature on optimal structure of indirect taxes and on marginal tax reforms with new evidence of actual and hypothetical reforms that could increase the welfare of households at zero fiscal costs. Regarding the general policy implications of our results, we conclude that using a demand model to rank commodities according to their MWGs can be helpful for designing both efficient and equitable VAT reforms.

Cost efficiency and welfare performance of banks: evidence from an emerging economy

PurposeThe study examines the relationship between the consequential social cost of market power (i.e. welfare performance of banks) and cost efficiency using data covering the period 2009 to 2017 from the Ghanaian banking industry.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effect (FE) panel regression and the quantile regression (QR) approaches to control for heterogeneity and provide increased room for policy relevance. The two-stage least squares instrumental variables (2SLS-IV) regression is used to ensure the robustness of the findings against the problem of possible reverse causality.FindingsThe results indicate a positive relationship between banks' welfare performance and cost efficiency, which suggests that greater cost efficiency hedges welfare losses. In other words, welfare gains and cost-efficient banks are not mutually exclusive. Also, the results show evidence that the sensitivity of welfare gain to cost efficiency depends on the knowledge of local market dynamics. Further, the findings from the QR estimation suggest that, but for welfare loss at low (Q.25) to the median (Q.50) quantiles, cost efficiency is a necessary and sufficient condition to hedge the welfare losses.Practical implicationsThe results demonstrate that financial consumer protection cannot be achieved without cost efficiency in the presence of both foreign banks and high market knowledge. Therefore, our paper suggests an integrated cost efficiency policy approach that has the complementary effect of a robust information sharing mechanism and incentives to hedge against welfare losses in the banking sector of emerging economies. Moreover, if welfare gain is synonymous with cost-efficient banks, then the presence of a quiet life is typical of financial consumer protection.Originality/valueThis study provides insight into the importance of cost efficiency to the public policy of financial consumer protection in an era of foreign banks' dominance. From the review of prior literature, this paper is the first to apply the QR estimation technique to examine the effect of cost efficiency throughout the conditional distribution of bank welfare performance rather than just the conditional mean effect of cost efficiency.

Optimal dynamic matching

We study a dynamic matching environment where individuals arrive sequentially. There is a trade‐off between waiting for a thicker market, allowing for higher‐quality matches, and minimizing agents' waiting costs. The optimal mechanism cumulates a stock of incongruent pairs up to a threshold and matches all others in an assortative fashion instantaneously. In discretionary settings, a similar protocol ensues in equilibrium, but expected queues are inefficiently long. We quantify the welfare gain from centralization, which can be substantial, even for low waiting costs. We also evaluate welfare improvements generated by alternative priority protocols.

Russia in world trade: Between globalism and regionalism

The article examines Russia’s participation in world trade and trade policy, using trade data for 1996–2017 and simulations of a numerical world trade model where Russia is divided into domestic regions. Since the mid-1990s, Russia’s foreign trade has grown much faster than the world average. This was accompanied by rapid deterioration in the trade balance for manufacturing, and fast redirection of imports, with more from China and relatively less from others, especially Eastern Europe. Only 1/8 of Russia’s foreign trade in 2017 was with Eastern Europe. This is why Russia can gain more from trade integration with the world beyond Eastern Europe, according to the model simulation analysis. For Russian domestic regions, multilateral liberalization among all countries has a similar effect across all of them, with a welfare gain due to lower import prices. For the commodity-exporting regions of Russia, preferential free trade agreements (FTAs) have a similar impact. For the more industrialized Russian regions, on the other hand, FTAs lead to manufacturing growth, rising wages and higher prices, and a larger welfare gain. According to the model simulations, trade integration promotes industrial diversification, with manufacturing growth also in some commodity regions. The results indicate that external liberalization is particularly important for the central parts of Russia; with Volga and West Siberia generally obtaining the strongest manufacturing boost from trade integration.

The Role of Storage and Trade in Food Security

This paper examines the role of storage and trade on food security with respect to milled rice in India for the period 1966–2013. Data on food balances, prices, and population obtained from FAOSTAT allow for the observation of the status quo with storage and trade. Then, using a spatial equilibrium framework, the outcomes without storage or trade are simulated. Our results are consistent with the literature with respect to welfare effects. Storage results in net welfare gains to society, although producers gain while consumers lose. Producers receive a welfare gain from net exports while consumers gain from net imports. From a food security perspective, the use of storage has provided benefits to consumers by increasing stability in the market, as seen through decreased standard deviation in both domestic rice prices and per capita availability. The results are mixed with respect to stability from trade.

Is Crop Insurance Creating Welfare Gain in North-east China? How to Improve Policy Implementation?

The article evaluates the expected welfare gain from voluntary partial government-subsidized maize insurance in north-east China. A total of 356 maize-growing households’ risk preferences from Linkou County of Heilongjiang province are examined and their expected welfare gains were analysed by the expected utility theory with each farmer’s unique risk preference. The research found that 217 out of 356 households are rational decision-makers and most of them are risk averse. In term of expected welfare gain, the research pointed out that providing the existing crop insurance creates a welfare gain of about CNY 177 per hectare. However, this estimated welfare gain might be reduced to only CNY 124 per hectare if the local government decided to provide 100 per cent insurance premium subsidy with a lower level of protection at the same fiscal budget. Further, the results indicated that about 36 per cent of the rational households made wrong decisions in buying the crop insurance, and households with fewer family members and a lower portion of non-farming income are more likely to make wrong decisions. Additional education may help these farmers to make better decisions and increase future welfare gain to a potential level of about CNY 275 per hectare on average.

Household Welfare Implications of Better Fertilizer Access and Lower Use Inefficiency: Long-Term Scenarios for Ethiopia

High population growth in Ethiopia is aggravating farmland scarcity, as the agrarian share of the population stays persistently high, and also creates increasing demand for food and non-food biomass. Based on this fact, this study investigates welfare implications of intensification measures like interventions that improve access and use efficiency to modern farming inputs. Using a dynamic meso-economic modeling framework for Ethiopia, ex-ante scenarios that simulate a) decreased costs of fertilizer use and b) elevated efficiency of fertilizer application for all crops are run for a period of 20 years. Fertilizer-yield response functions are estimated (based on results from an agronomic crop model and actual survey data) and embedded into the economic model in order to get realistic marginal returns to fertilizer application. This is our novel methodological contribution in which we introduce how to calculate input use inefficiency based on attainable yield levels from agronomic crop model and actual yield levels. Simultaneous implementation of these interventions lead to annual yield increases of 8.7 percent for an average crop farmer compared to the current level. Increased fertilizer application is also found to be profitable for an average farmer despite price reduction for crops following increased market supply. As a result of price and income effects of the interventions, all household types exhibit welfare gain. Non-farming households, being net consumers, enjoy lower costs of living. Rural farming households enjoy even higher welfare gain than non-farming households because they consume a higher share from crop commodities that become cheaper, and because their farming profits increase.