Belief Elicitation with a Synchronized Lottery Choice Menu That Is Invariant to Risk Attitudes
2016 ◽
Vol 8
(1)
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pp. 110-139
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Keyword(s):
This paper uses a Bayesian information processing task to compare belief elicitation mechanisms including a quadratic scoring rule, a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak pricing procedure, and a two-stage menu of lottery choices that is structured to identify a precise point of probability indifference. The choice menu yields a higher incidence of correct Bayesian responses and lower belief error averages. Unlike the quadratic scoring rule, the binary payoffs for the lottery choice mechanism are synchronized to provide theoretical incentive-compatibility regardless of risk attitudes. In addition, the choice menu structure is more transparent and intuitive than the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak procedure. (JEL C91, D44, D81, D83)
2014 ◽
Vol 44
(11)
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pp. 2809-2819
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1998 ◽
Vol 13
(1)
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pp. 1-9
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1992 ◽
Vol 7
(3)
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pp. 175-181
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Keyword(s):
1996 ◽
Vol 51B
(3)
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pp. P155-P165
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Keyword(s):
1964 ◽
Vol 68
(6)
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pp. 612-614
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