Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence
2015 ◽
Vol 7
(4)
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pp. 189-222
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Keyword(s):
In a dynamic model with sunk export costs, a firm's export investment is lower under trade policy uncertainty, and credible preferential trade agreements (PTAs) increase trade even if current tariffs are low. Exploring Portugal's accession to the European Community as a policy uncertainty shock we find that the trade reform accounted for a large fraction of Portuguese exporting firms' entry and sales; the accession removed uncertainty about future EC trade policies; and this uncertainty channel accounted for a large fraction of the predicted growth. Our approach can be applied to other PTAs and sources of policy uncertainty. (JEL D22, F12, F14, F15, G31, L11)
2015 ◽
Vol 7
(4)
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pp. 1-42
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Keyword(s):
2017 ◽
Keyword(s):
2018 ◽
Vol 114
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pp. 96-115
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Keyword(s):
2019 ◽
pp. 153-171