Estimating the Impact of Cumulative Rules of Origin on Trade Costs: An Application to Mega-regional Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs), focusing on the impact of cumulative rules of origin (ROO) on trade costs. Using a gravity regression model, we estimate the effect of various cumulative ROO systems on the measured trade costs. We apply these estimates to static and capital accumulation computable general equilibrium models to compare the effects of mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region—namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and Free Trade Areas in the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We find that mega-regional FTAs may not be a viable alternative to a multilateral trading system or bilateral FTAs unless less restrictive cumulative ROO are adopted. Successful FTAs depend on an appropriate cumulative ROO provision system rather than their membership expansion.

Information Frictions, Internet, and the Relationship between Distance and Trade

We examine how the adoption of information communication technology affects bilateral trade. The context is a public program in Norway that rolled out broadband access points leading to plausibly exogenous variation in the availability and adoption of broadband by firms. We find that broadband makes trade patterns more sensitive to distance and economic size. These results are consistent with a model of trade with variable elasticity of demand. The model predicts that adoption of a technology that lowers information frictions enlarges the choice set of exporters and importers. This makes demand more elastic with respect to trade costs and thus distance. (JEL D83, F14, L86, O33)

Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity

Exploiting changes in the geography of economic integration in Europe, this paper quantifies the effects of Brexit from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity. By isolating the directional treatment effects of EU agreements for the UK, the analysis reveals important heterogeneity across agreements, sectors, and within pairs. We find that these directional effects matter for the size and distribution of the welfare effects of Brexit—the withdrawal of the UK from EU agreements resulting into a return of trade costs to the situation quo ante. We make this point with the help of a modern multi-sector trade model that is able to capture inter- and intranational production networks. In line with other papers, the welfare costs of Brexit are higher in the UK than in most other EU countries. However, heterogeneity tends to attenuate overall costs while giving rise to substantial heterogeneity between EU27 members and sectors. A scenario that could shift bargaining power eliminates asymmetries in the costs of Brexit as soon as the UK fully liberalizes its market.

Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence

We evaluate the aggregate effects of changes in trade barriers when these changes can be implemented slowly over time and trade responds gradually to changes in trade barriers because firm-level trade costs make exporting a dynamic decision. Our model shows how expectations of changes in trade barriers affect the economy. We find that while decreases in trade barriers increase economic activity, expectations of lower future trade barriers temporarily decrease investment, hours worked, and output. Further- more, canceling an expected decline in future trade barriers raises investment and output in the short run but substantially lowers medium-run growth. These effects are larger when the expected reform is bigger. In the data, we find that countries with more trade growth after the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) rounds decreased investment and hours worked in the years leading to the tariff cuts, as predicted by our model.

The Impact of Trade Cost on Readymade Garment Export: The Case of Bangladesh

The main purpose of this study is to understand whether the trade cost influences the export of Readymade Garment (RMG) export of Bangladesh. Theoretically, with an increase in the volume of exported goods, the costs will also increase. Therefore, this study is to examine the impact of trade costs on the readymade garment export performance of Bangladesh for the period of 2007 -2015. This study applied two types of panel data models: pooled OLS model and the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure have been employed in the estimation. The main contribution of the paper compared to other studies on Bangladesh lies in its approach in addressing the impact of trade costs on exports and using PPML gravity equation estimation. The results of the study indicate that trade costs have a significant negative impact on exports of Bangladesh. The major findings show that trade cost has a negative and significant impact on Bangladesh's bilateral RMG export performance. This implies that the Bangladeshi government should work to reduce domestic trade costs in order to boost efficiency and sustainably promote RMG export.