Estimating the Impact of Cumulative Rules of Origin on Trade Costs: An Application to Mega-regional Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs), focusing on the impact of cumulative rules of origin (ROO) on trade costs. Using a gravity regression model, we estimate the effect of various cumulative ROO systems on the measured trade costs. We apply these estimates to static and capital accumulation computable general equilibrium models to compare the effects of mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region—namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and Free Trade Areas in the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We find that mega-regional FTAs may not be a viable alternative to a multilateral trading system or bilateral FTAs unless less restrictive cumulative ROO are adopted. Successful FTAs depend on an appropriate cumulative ROO provision system rather than their membership expansion.

‘New Age’ Preferential Trade Agreements and Global Value Chains: A Comparative Sectoral Analysis

The past three decades witnessed a simultaneous proliferation in the number of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and the network of global value chains (GVCs). The rise in the number of PTAs has been accompanied by inclusion of ‘deeper’ provisions such as services, competition, intellectual property rights (IPR), etc. This study aims to explain the differential impact PTA ‘depth’ on trade in value added as well as the heterogeneous results observed across industries based on their distinctive characteristics. For this purpose, an augmented gravity equation with three-way fixed effects is estimated, using a relatively newer dataset for the time period 2000-2015 for 64 countries. The results conclude that the PTA ‘depth’ determined by nontariff and ‘behind-the-border’ provisions leads to greater participation of member countries in GVCs. Furthermore, it is shown that value added trade for a sector like automotive, which has higher product differentiation, intra-industry trade, IPR and FDI linkages is most impacted by the PTA ‘depth’.

The Impact of Trade Agreement and War on Specific Indonesia-China Bilateral Trade

This research aims to evaluate the impact of trade agreements and trade war on specific Indonesia-China bilateral trade on four export-import commodities during 2014 - 2019. The methodology used are both descriptive analysis and RCA and EPD analysis. The entire analysis section tries to focus on important periods of economic relations between Indonesia and China, namely the implementation of the 2015 ACFTA and trade war. The results of the study indicate that Indonesia's selected export commodities have huge potential to be developed in bilateral trade with China, especially to maximize the benefits of ACFTA. The implementation of ACFTA 2015 has a positive impact on the growth of the four selected commodities as well as on its competitive analysis. The results of RCA analysis show the four commodities remain including highly competitive, even for palm oil tends to be specialized for Indonesia, however there are differences from EPD analysis results where the two Indonesian export commodities (Animal or Vegetable Fats/ HS15 and Mineral Fuels/ HS27) before the trade war was in the rising star position, it became a lost opportunity, but for the two imported Indonesian commodities, there was no change in staying in the rising star position.

Beihilfenkontrolle zwischen Supranationalität und Intergouvernementalität

The Brexit experience sheds new light on the question of whether credible state aid regulation must by its nature be supranational. Following a review of the disciplines of EU state aid law and WTO subsidy law, which shape international subsidy law, it is explained why the introduction of bi- and plurilateral control regimes beyond the WTO is necessary from the EU's point of view and which hurdles these efforts must overcome. Finally, on the basis of an overall analysis of EU (free trade) agreements, a concentric circle model of state aid law is developed, which reveals the link between type of agreement, market integration, geographical proximity and the impact of EU law on the state aid rules agreed with the treaty partners.

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement and the Mega-Regional Trade Agreements (MRTAs): what are the underlying challenges and prospects for Africa-South-South trade?

This study examines the possible challenges and prospects of the recent signing of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement on South-South trade. The recent ratification of the agreement by the African Union (AU) Heads of Government and the establishment of the mega-regional trade agreements (MRTAs) by the major global trading economies are the biggest since the establishment of the WTO. One of these regional and continental agreements' principal objectives is to further strengthen trade terms and balance of trade statistics between member nations. Whereas almost all the regional and continental blocs have to a large extent, achieved the purpose of their trade agreements, Africa stands out as the only region whose intra-trade value still constitutes less than 15% of global trade share. Many reasons have been adduced to be responsible for the weak trade performance, one of which is weak regional integration. This study, therefore, concludes that for Africa to achieve significant improvement in global trade, the region needs to encourage regional trade, which will act as a catalyst for transforming the domestic economies and lay a robust foundation for healthy regional competition and integration

Making Trade Agreements Work for Women Empowerment:

In the recent years, there has been an upsurge in the number of FTAs that are mainstreaming gender equality concerns in their trade agreements. But is gender mainstreaming enough, and does it mean that countries that “mainstream” gender equality concerns in their trade agreements also “adopt” actions to address these concerns? What is gender mainstreaming in trade policy context? How can trade agreements help in fostering women empowerment? What kinds of relevant provisions have already been included in existing trade agreements, and what remains undone? This article seeks to respond to these questions

Negotiating Trade in Services with China from the Uruguayan Perspective

We focus on trade in services, and we aim at assessing the concessions made by China when negotiating trade agreements. Additionally, we shed light on the opportunities that Uruguay may have in exporting services to China in case of signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The debate on this issue started in 2016 when Uruguayan President Vázquez visited China and with Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the possibility of signing a FTA. Since then, opposing arguments have been put forward. Unfortunately, the lack of bilateral information on trade in services is a limitation for this kind of studies. It is highlighted that there will be additional large gains which would emerge from trade in goods, cooperation or investments.