The Economic Effects of Free Trading Policies Within an Integrated Economy Between Philippines and the Asean-6 Member States

The analysis of the effects that free trade has within the context of the Philippines and its fellow co-members within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was purposed as a conduit for greater insight on trade relations between the nations of what is being considered as a fast-growing unified economy. In a more specific lens, the paper identifies how the Philippines and its fellow nations within the bloc conduct free trade while also carefully examining the number of goods that are being imported and exported. The study will use a Quantitative research design to find the changes in exports and imports as well as to point out the association between the dependent and independent variables. The study also determines the effect of trade policy. The research is a cross-country study exclusive to ASEAN-6, namely Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, and the period of the study is from the year 1993 – 2015. The researchers used Ordinary Least Squares and showed a high degree of predictability between the dependent and independent variables. The findings confirm that there exists a significant degree of negative correlation between the import and inflation, tariff and FDI. On the other hand, there is a significant positive correlation between the FDI and import of 4 ASEAN countries, namely Brunei, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia, besides a negative correlation between FDI and import of Malaysia. While the tariff and inflation of the Philippines and imports come up with a negative relationship, so this brings us to the conclusion that the independent variables are affected by the policy of free trade but for the good of the economies of the countries involved. With the result of the study, it is expected that further examination of this topic will expound more as the zeitgeist affecting the ASEAN bloc continues to tentatively change. The policy-makers should build an inclusive and sustainable trading system by identifying priorities for improvement and clarifying the design of new trade rules. The policy-makers should also come up with indicators, trade facilitation performance of different countries, information on the level of trade in services restrictiveness, and also records on export restrictions.

FUTURE PREDICTION OF THE EXPANSION OF BUILT-UP AREAS IN BATAM FREE TRADE ZONE (FTZ) USING LAND CHANGE MODELER

The establishment of Batam City as a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) encourages the city’s growth, as manifested in massive built-up area expansion. The aim of this paper was to analyze the pattern of built-up area expansion in FTZ Batam in 2035 based on the corresponding pattern from 2000 to 2015. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was the instrument used to determine and analyze land cover changes in 2000–2015, from which future changes or built-up area expansion in 2035 were predicted using the validated 2020 land cover map as reference. The validation test based on the Kappa Index of Agreement yielded 96%. The prediction results showed that, compared with 2020, the built-up area in 2035 would have increased by 31.8% and expanded towards the outskirts of FTZ Batam. This sprawl follows the location of the primary activity centers in the FTZ, as allocated in Presidential Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia No. 87 of 2011. A new expansion is expected to continue into existing open space and extensive untouched forest areas. These research findings provide a concept that can be utilized to formulate certain policies and regional planning in the future.

Estimating the Impact of Cumulative Rules of Origin on Trade Costs: An Application to Mega-regional Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region

We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs), focusing on the impact of cumulative rules of origin (ROO) on trade costs. Using a gravity regression model, we estimate the effect of various cumulative ROO systems on the measured trade costs. We apply these estimates to static and capital accumulation computable general equilibrium models to compare the effects of mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region—namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and Free Trade Areas in the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We find that mega-regional FTAs may not be a viable alternative to a multilateral trading system or bilateral FTAs unless less restrictive cumulative ROO are adopted. Successful FTAs depend on an appropriate cumulative ROO provision system rather than their membership expansion.

CIS: FREE TRADE MARKET AND FOOD SECURITY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The authors in the article analyzed the CIS customs legislation, particularly the provision of tariff preferences to declarants of food and agricultural products in the conditions of free trade of the CIS countries. The authors also evaluated the impact of the market of these goods on the food security of Russia. The authors highlighted fragments of the history of creation, development of the CIS, modern relations, strategy and prospects for improvement.