scholarly journals Research on the Impacts of Hidden Short-term International Capital Flows on China’s Economy

Author(s):  
Ying DU ◽  
Jia RUAN
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 77
Author(s):  
Ning Wu

With the continuous development of global economic integration and financial markets, international capital flows more and more frequently, the frequent flow of international capital will inevitably affect the yield of Chinese stock market. This article uses short-term international capital inflows SS and Shanghai composite index R as research objects. Based on monthly data from January 2002 to October 2017, VAR model was constructed using Eviews8.0 to study the impact of short-term international capital flows on Chinese stock market. Empirical studies have found that short-term international capital flow is the granger cause of changes in the Shanghai composite index yield, while the yield of Chinese stock market will not affect short-term international capital flows. At the end of this paper, relevant suggestions are put forward according to the conclusions.


2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
JUNYI SHI

In this paper, we use the improved direct method and improved residual method to re-measure the annual scale and to measure the quarterly scale of the short-term international capital flows based on the Chinese Balance of Payment table. At the same time, we use the residual method to estimate the monthly scale of the Chinese short-term international capital flows as well. Then we explain and test these calculated results. Next we apply the results to the lead–lag analysis of macro-economy. To judge whether the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator, we apply the Kullback–Leibler information method and cross-correlation analysis method to analyze the lead–lag relationship between the short-term international capital flows and macro-economy by selecting some representative macroeconomic indicators as a reference. Our empirical analysis shows that in China, the short-term international capital flow is a leading indicator to macro-economy and a coincident indicator to Purchasing Managers’ Index. In the end, we give some conclusions and policy proposals.


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