Exchangeable Processes: de Finetti’s Theorem Revisited

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 1153-1163
Author(s):  
Ehud Lehrer ◽  
Dimitry Shaiderman
Keyword(s):  
Representation Theorem ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Stationary Process ◽  
Infinite Sequence ◽  
Convex Combination ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Frequency Dependent ◽  
Distributed Processes ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if the joint distribution of any finite subsequence is invariant to permutations. De Finetti’s representation theorem states that every exchangeable infinite sequence is a convex combination of independent and identically distributed processes. In this paper, we explore the relationship between exchangeability and frequency-dependent posteriors. We show that any stationary process is exchangeable if and only if its posteriors depend only on the empirical frequency of past events.

scholarly journals On the Joint Distribution of Stopping Times and Stopped Sums in Multistate Exchangeable Trials

2014 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 483-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Boutsikas ◽  
D. L. Antzoulakos ◽  
A. C. Rakitzis
Keyword(s):  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Stopping Time ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Stopping Times ◽  
Independent Interest ◽  
Exchangeable Random Variables ◽  
Stopped Sums ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

Let T be a stopping time associated with a sequence of independent and identically distributed or exchangeable random variables taking values in {0, 1, 2, …, m}, and let ST,i be the stopped sum denoting the number of appearances of outcome 'i' in X1, …, XT, 0 ≤ i ≤ m. In this paper we present results revealing that, if the distribution of T is known, then we can also derive the joint distribution of (T, ST,0, ST,1, …, ST,m). Two applications, which have independent interest, are offered to illustrate the applicability and the usefulness of the main results.

scholarly journals Joint Distributions of Counts of Strings in Finite Bernoulli Sequences

2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 758-772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred W. Huffer ◽  
Jayaram Sethuraman
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Process ◽  
Random Vector ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Infinite Sequence ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Finite Sequence ◽  
Factorial Moments ◽  
Bernoulli Random Variables ◽  
Joint Distributions ◽  
Bernoulli Sequence

An infinite sequence (Y1, Y2,…) of independent Bernoulli random variables with P(Yi = 1) = a / (a + b + i - 1), i = 1, 2,…, where a > 0 and b ≥ 0, will be called a Bern(a, b) sequence. Consider the counts Z1, Z2, Z3,… of occurrences of patterns or strings of the form {11}, {101}, {1001},…, respectively, in this sequence. The joint distribution of the counts Z1, Z2,… in the infinite Bern(a, b) sequence has been studied extensively. The counts from the initial finite sequence (Y1, Y2,…, Yn) have been studied by Holst (2007), (2008b), who obtained the joint factorial moments for Bern(a, 0) and the factorial moments of Z1, the count of the string {1, 1}, for a general Bern(a, b). We consider stopping the Bernoulli sequence at a random time and describe the joint distribution of counts, which extends Holst's results. We show that the joint distribution of counts from a class of randomly stopped Bernoulli sequences possesses the mixture of independent Poissons property: there is a random vector conditioned on which the counts are independent Poissons. To obtain these results, we extend the conditional marked Poisson process technique introduced in Huffer, Sethuraman and Sethuraman (2009). Our results avoid previous combinatorial and induction methods which generally only yield factorial moments.

scholarly journals Joint Distributions of Counts of Strings in Finite Bernoulli Sequences

2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (03) ◽  
pp. 758-772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred W. Huffer ◽  
Jayaram Sethuraman
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Process ◽  
Random Vector ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Infinite Sequence ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Finite Sequence ◽  
Factorial Moments ◽  
Bernoulli Random Variables ◽  
Joint Distributions ◽  
Bernoulli Sequence

An infinite sequence (Y 1, Y 2,…) of independent Bernoulli random variables with P(Y i = 1) = a / (a + b + i - 1), i = 1, 2,…, where a > 0 and b ≥ 0, will be called a Bern(a, b) sequence. Consider the counts Z 1, Z 2, Z 3,… of occurrences of patterns or strings of the form {11}, {101}, {1001},…, respectively, in this sequence. The joint distribution of the counts Z 1, Z 2,… in the infinite Bern(a, b) sequence has been studied extensively. The counts from the initial finite sequence (Y 1, Y 2,…, Y n ) have been studied by Holst (2007), (2008b), who obtained the joint factorial moments for Bern(a, 0) and the factorial moments of Z 1, the count of the string {1, 1}, for a general Bern(a, b). We consider stopping the Bernoulli sequence at a random time and describe the joint distribution of counts, which extends Holst's results. We show that the joint distribution of counts from a class of randomly stopped Bernoulli sequences possesses the mixture of independent Poissons property: there is a random vector conditioned on which the counts are independent Poissons. To obtain these results, we extend the conditional marked Poisson process technique introduced in Huffer, Sethuraman and Sethuraman (2009). Our results avoid previous combinatorial and induction methods which generally only yield factorial moments.

scholarly journals On the Joint Distribution of Stopping Times and Stopped Sums in Multistate Exchangeable Trials

2014 ◽  
Vol 51 (02) ◽  
pp. 483-491
Author(s):  
M. V. Boutsikas ◽  
D. L. Antzoulakos ◽  
A. C. Rakitzis
Keyword(s):  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Stopping Time ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Stopping Times ◽  
Independent Interest ◽  
Exchangeable Random Variables ◽  
Stopped Sums ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

Let T be a stopping time associated with a sequence of independent and identically distributed or exchangeable random variables taking values in {0, 1, 2, …, m}, and let S T,i be the stopped sum denoting the number of appearances of outcome 'i' in X 1, …, X T , 0 ≤ i ≤ m. In this paper we present results revealing that, if the distribution of T is known, then we can also derive the joint distribution of (T, S T,0, S T,1, …, S T,m ). Two applications, which have independent interest, are offered to illustrate the applicability and the usefulness of the main results.

scholarly journals The number of failed components in a coherent working system when the lifetimes are discretely distributed

Metrika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Jasiński
Keyword(s):  
Random Variables ◽  
Continuous Case ◽  
Coherent System ◽  
Coherent Systems ◽  
Discrete Random Variables ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

AbstractIn this paper, we study the number of failed components of a coherent system. We consider the case when the component lifetimes are discrete random variables that may be dependent and non-identically distributed. Firstly, we compute the probability that there are exactly i, $$i=0,\ldots ,n-k,$$ i = 0 , … , n - k , failures in a k-out-of-n system under the condition that it is operating at time t. Next, we extend this result to other coherent systems. In addition, we show that, in the most popular model of independent and identically distributed component lifetimes, the obtained probability corresponds to the respective one derived in the continuous case and existing in the literature.

A note on Spitzer's lemma and its application to the maximum of partial sums of dependent random variables

1976 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 361-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Solari ◽  
J. E. A. Dunnage
Keyword(s):  
Infinite Sequence ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Finite Sequence ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Dependent Random Variables ◽  
Finite Segment ◽  
Exchangeable Random Variables ◽  
Partial Sum

We give an expression for the expectation of max (0, S1, …, Sn) where Sk is the kth partial sum of a finite sequence of exchangeable random variables X1, …, Xn. When the Xk are also independent, the formula we give has already been obtained by Spitzer; and when the sequence is a finite segment of an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables, it is a consequence of a theorem of Hewitt.

Prophet Inequalities for Independent and Identically Distributed Random Variables from an Unknown Distribution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Correa ◽  
Paul Dütting ◽  
Felix Fischer ◽  
Kevin Schewior
Keyword(s):  
Stopping Time ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Random Order ◽  
Secretary Problem ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Optimal Stopping Theory ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

A central object of study in optimal stopping theory is the single-choice prophet inequality for independent and identically distributed random variables: given a sequence of random variables [Formula: see text] drawn independently from the same distribution, the goal is to choose a stopping time τ such that for the maximum value of α and for all distributions, [Formula: see text]. What makes this problem challenging is that the decision whether [Formula: see text] may only depend on the values of the random variables [Formula: see text] and on the distribution F. For a long time, the best known bound for the problem had been [Formula: see text], but recently a tight bound of [Formula: see text] was obtained. The case where F is unknown, such that the decision whether [Formula: see text] may depend only on the values of the random variables [Formula: see text], is equally well motivated but has received much less attention. A straightforward guarantee for this case of [Formula: see text] can be derived from the well-known optimal solution to the secretary problem, where an arbitrary set of values arrive in random order and the goal is to maximize the probability of selecting the largest value. We show that this bound is in fact tight. We then investigate the case where the stopping time may additionally depend on a limited number of samples from F, and we show that, even with o(n) samples, [Formula: see text]. On the other hand, n samples allow for a significant improvement, whereas [Formula: see text] samples are equivalent to knowledge of the distribution: specifically, with n samples, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and with [Formula: see text] samples, [Formula: see text] for any [Formula: see text].

Central Limit Theorems for Interchangeable Processes

1958 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 222-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Blum ◽  
H. Chernoff ◽  
M. Rosenblatt ◽  
H. Teicher
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Probability Measure ◽  
Central Limit ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Central Limit Theorems ◽  
Probability Measures ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Positive Integers

Let {Xn} (n = 1, 2 , …) be a stochastic process. The random variables comprising it or the process itself will be said to be interchangeable if, for any choice of distinct positive integers i 1, i 2, H 3 … , ik, the joint distribution of depends merely on k and is independent of the integers i 1, i 2, … , i k. It was shown by De Finetti (3) that the probability measure for any interchangeable process is a mixture of probability measures of processes each consisting of independent and identically distributed random variables.

scholarly journals On the law of the iterated logarithm in the infinite variance case

1980 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Maller
Keyword(s):  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Infinite Variance ◽  
Iterated Logarithm ◽  
The Law ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

AbstractThe main purpose of the paper is to give necessary and sufficient conditions for the almost sure boundedness of (Sn – αn)/B(n), where Sn = X1 + X2 + … + XmXi being independent and identically distributed random variables, and αnand B(n) being centering and norming constants. The conditions take the form of the convergence or divergence of a series of a geometric subsequence of the sequence P(Sn − αn > a B(n)), where a is a constant. The theorem is distinguished from previous similar results by the comparative weakness of the subsidiary conditions and the simplicity of the calculations. As an application, a law of the iterated logarithm general enough to include a result of Feller is derived.

On the ordered partial sums of real random variables

1977 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lajos Takács
Keyword(s):  
Random Variables ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Markov Sequence ◽  
Stieltjes Transforms ◽  
Independent And Identically Distributed

In 1952 Pollaczek discovered a remarkable formula for the Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of the distributions of the ordered partial sums for a sequence of independent and identically distributed real random variables. In this paper Pollaczek's result is proved in a simple way and is extended for a semi-Markov sequence of real random variables.

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