scholarly journals Population Forecast with Focus on Emigration: Scenarios for the Case of Peripheral Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Aleksejs Homutiņins ◽  
Viktorija Šipilova ◽  
Ludmila Aleksejeva

Sustainable decision-making and policies for regional development need clear understanding of future trends in population change. Emigration as one of the core factors of population change causes the greatest uncertainty in the demographic forecasts. Population change due to emigration is bright especially in peripheral regions what strengthens their unfavourable socio-economic conditions. Within the present study, the authors forecast population change due to emigration in peripheral region with high emigration rates. The authors offer three scenarios – current, half of current, and zero emigration, which demonstrate how differentiated population change due to emigration may be in case of different suppositions. Such approach focuses on the issue at local level. For numerical expression of population change, the authors apply simulation model based on system dynamics methods. Forecast results of future population change due to emigration in each scenario may be as a basis for timely inclusion of issues in regional development policies. 

Author(s):  
Felix Angel POPESCU ◽  

Regional development is a field of research and a discipline of study that transcends several fields of social sciences, and can be studied by students in the fields of administrative, political, economic, social and humanistic sciences and others that include this subject in the curriculum. Regional development is also an attribute of public administration in all Member States of the European Union, as well as outside Europe, with ministries dedicated to implementing balanced regional development policies. Therefore, the book written by the author Daniela Antonescu, “Dezvoltarea regională. Teorie și practică” [Regional development. theory and practice], published by Lumen Publishing House in Iași, Romania, in 2019, who I consider a great specialist in this field (as she is the organizer of a conference on this topic, that attracts specialists from Romania and abroad), addresses a broad public of readers: both researchers and teachers concerned with development issues, as well as civil servants, members of national governments or parliaments, MEPs, members of other international fora, concerned with regional development, which includes not only the region as a territory but also subdivisions at local level: county, municipality / city, commune, village, on a case-by-case basis.


Author(s):  
Michaela Staníčková ◽  
Lukáš Melecký

Regional development policies based on local potential triggers a shift in the economic structure of territories. Exogenous and endogenous factors determine potential of regional development and it is necessary to use different indicators and methods to its evaluation. For the paper purpose, it is required to define metropolitan and peripheral functions as well as urban areas in the form of geographic models, depicting their spatial distribution in the European Union (EU). Nowadays, regions are increasingly becoming the drivers of the economy. All regions possess development opportunities – however, use these options enough, and hence the competitiveness of regions must be efficient enough. The paper focuses on dividing the EU NUTS 2 regions based on geographic models of the European economy into efficient and inefficient ones and identifying an optimal benchmark for inefficient regions as a strategy for enhancing their economic structure to measure regional efforts and progress.


2009 ◽  
pp. 263-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Ricardo Cavalcante ◽  
Simone Uderman

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