The Behavior of Divorce Rates: A Smooth Transition Regression Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Marko Korhonen ◽  
Mikko Puhakka
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Model ◽  
Divorce Rate ◽  
Large Change ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Divorce Laws ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Divorce Rates ◽  
Over Time

AbstractWe explore the behavior of the divorce rates in 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2010. Many studies have found persistence in divorce rates after changes in divorce laws. We formulate a nonlinear model to explain the behavior of divorce rates, over time, after a large change in divorce rate, including changes in divorce laws.We argue that the stationary smooth transition regression (STR) approach is useful in analyzing divorce rates. We reject the persistence result and, in addition, provide evidence on asymmetries in divorce rates. This suggests that one should be careful when interpreting the effects of the changes in divorce rates (especially changes in the divorce and family laws) on divorce rates.

scholarly journals Who Reacts to Less Restrictive Divorce Laws?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Fallesen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Divorce Rate ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High School Degree ◽  
Divorce Laws ◽  
Divorce Rates ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To study how divorce behavior in Denmark changed following a July 2013 reform that repealed mandatory separation periods for uncontested divorces, instead allowing for immediate administrative divorce.Background: Most countries have mandatory separation periods that couples undergo before they can divorce. Separation allows couples a grace-period, during which they may reconcile and stay together. Yet, the impact of separation periods on divorce risk remains understudied. Methods: Using monthly time series data on divorce rates from 2007-2018 (T=144), the research brief estimates the size and shape of the policy impact of the July 2013 reform. Using monthly administrative population data on all ever-married couples (N*T=40,431,848) the study further calculates the average characteristics of married couples in Denmark who would have remained together absent the reform.Results: After an initial spike in the divorce rate driven by couples divorcing earlier, the divorce rate settled at a 9.7 percent higher level compared to pre-reform. Couples who divorced because of the reform had been married for fewer years, were ethnic Danish, and had high school degree as highest educational level.Conclusion: Mandatory separation periods keep a minor, but substantial, share of potential divorcees together.

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