Capital structure, stock exchanges in Chile: 2007 to 2016

PurposeThe article consists of analyzing the behavior of the determinants of the capital structure of Chilean companies between 2007 and 2016. The objective of this study was achieved through a typology of research based on bibliographic, documentary, exploratory and explanatory, considering annual financial reports from Economática in the chosen period.Design/methodology/approachAs this is a research study with a quantitative approach, the statistical tools used were descriptive analysis, Pearson correlation, variance inflation factor (VIF) and panel regression.FindingsThe results show that Chilean companies (240) have higher and costly long-term debt. These companies have high averages in current liquidity, return to shareholders, growth in sales and assets and market-to-book (MTB). Long-term debt was highlighted with an explanatory power of 85%. Current liquidity was highlighted as being significant in most of the indebtedness proposed in the survey, failing to register brands like this in expensive short-term and long-term indebtedness. It is noticed that flip flops companies are more prone to the pecking order theory (POT). The gap occupied by this study is linked to research involving South American countries, especially the Chilean market, and the determinants of the capital structure.Originality/valueAs future research, it is suggested to include other types of variables related to indebtedness and the same action for its determinants, in addition to the speed technique of adjusting corporate debts.

Value-at-risk predictive performance: a comparison between the CaViaR and GARCH models for the MILA and ASEAN-5 stock markets

PurposeThis paper tests the accuracies of the models that predict the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the Market Integrated Latin America (MILA) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) emerging stock markets during crisis periods.Design/methodology/approachMany VaR estimation models have been presented in the literature. In this paper, the VaR is estimated using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models under normal, skewed-normal, Student-t and skewed-Student-t distributional assumptions and compared with the predictive performance of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CaViaR) considering the four alternative specifications proposed by Engle and Manganelli (2004).FindingsThe results support the robustness of the CaViaR model in out-sample VaR forecasting for the MILA and ASEAN-5 emerging stock markets in crisis periods. This evidence is based on the results of the backtesting approach that analyzed the predictive performance of the models according to their accuracy.Originality/valueAn important issue in market risk is the inaccurate estimation of risk since different VaR models lead to different risk measures, which means that there is not yet an accepted method for all situations and markets. In particular, quantifying and forecasting the risk for the MILA and ASEAN-5 stock markets is crucial for evaluating global market risk since the MILA is the biggest stock exchange in Latin America and the ASEAN region accounted for 11% of the total global foreign direct investment inflows in 2014. Furthermore, according to the Asian Development Bank, this region is projected to average 7% annual growth by 2025.

Do public and internal debt cause income inequality? Evidence from Kenya

PurposeThis study aims to determine whether there is an effect of internal and public debt on income inequality in Kenya for the period 1970–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe relationship is examined by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Toda Yamamoto causality by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).FindingsOur findings suggest that both internal and public debt harm inequality in Kenya in the long term. Furthermore, a one-way causality from internal debt to income inequality is also obtained while no causality relationship is found to exist between public debt and income inequality. Based on these findings, the study recommends that to reduce income inequality levels in Kenya, other methods of financing other than debt financing should be preferred because debt financing is not pro-poor.Originality/valueThis study is unique based on the fact that no previous paper has analysed the debt and inequality relationship in Kenya. To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first study to analyse the applicability of redistribution effect of debt in Kenya. The study is also different in that it provides separate analysis for public debt and internal debt on their effects on income inequality.

The impact of customer performance on IMC outcomes: firm size moderation in the inter-country context

PurposeTaking the customer-centric nature of integrated marketing communications (IMC), this article investigates the specific role of customer performance in IMC effectiveness in various size companies applying inter-country context.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of the primary data from developed (Spain) and developing (Belarus) economies. A total of 540 manager respondents participated in the survey. The article uses structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis for analysis.FindingsWhen taking into consideration, customer performance affects the IMC outcome on the market and financial performance. The customer performance role varies in firms of various sizes and small- and medium -sized enterprises (SMEs) operating both in developed and developing economies.Research limitations/implicationsThe research underlines the significant role of customer performance in IMC implementation, which stimulates further investigation on the topic. It also closes the gap in the IMC outcomes analysis in SMEs operating in developed and developing economies.Practical implicationsCustomer evaluation plays a vital role in the IMC outcomes for market growth and financial returns. SMEs and larger companies implement IMC with different levels of effectiveness. SMEs with IMC implementation can gain an advantage over larger rivals and improve their market position. Moreover, the study generalizes the results by applying inter-country context.Originality/valueThis is a pioneering study of the complex IMC outcomes model under firms' size moderate conditions. The research applies an inter-country context.

Quadrinomial trees with stochastic volatility to value real options

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to propose a detailed methodology to estimate, model and incorporate the non-constant volatility onto a numerical tree scheme, to evaluate a real option, using a quadrinomial multiplicative recombination.Design/methodology/approachThis article uses the multiplicative quadrinomial tree numerical method with non-constant volatility, based on stochastic differential equations of the GARCH-diffusion type to value real options when the volatility is stochastic.FindingsFindings showed that in the proposed method with volatility tends to zero, the multiplicative binomial traditional method is a particular case, and results are comparable between these methodologies, as well as to the exact solution offered by the Black–Scholes model.Originality/valueThe originality of this paper lies in try to model the implicit (conditional) market volatility to assess, based on that, a real option using a quadrinomial tree, including into this valuation the stochastic volatility of the underlying asset. The main contribution is the formal derivation of a risk-neutral valuation as well as the market risk premium associated with volatility, verifying this condition via numerical test on simulated and real data, showing that our proposal is consistent with Black and Scholes formula and multiplicative binomial trees method.

Deviations from fundamental value and future closed-end country fund returns

PurposeThis article examines whether deviations from fundamental value or closed-end country fund's discounts or premiums forecast future share price returns or net asset returns.Design/methodology/approachThe main empirical (econometric) tool is a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The authors model share price returns and net asset returns as a function of their lagged values, the discounts or premiums, and a control variable for local market returns. The authors also conduct Dickey Fuller and Granger causality tests as well as impulse response functions.FindingsIt was found that deviations from fundamental value do predict share price returns. This predictability is contrary to weak-form market efficiency. Premiums or discounts predict net asset returns but weakly.Originality/valueThe findings point to the idea that the closed-end fund market is somewhat predictable and inefficient (in its weak form) since the market appears to be able to anticipate a fund's future returns using information contained in the premiums (or discounts). In particular, the market has the ability to anticipate future behaviour because growing premiums forecast declining share price returns for one or two periods ahead.

Factors driving IPO variability: evidence from Pakistan stock exchange

PurposeThe objectives of this study are twofold. First, it intends to investigate the symmetric link between initial public offering (IPO) variability and the determinants of the stock market index, treasury bill rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment. Second, this study intends to examine the asymmetric link between IPO variability and the aforementioned determinants, namely the stock market index, treasury bill rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment.Design/methodology/approachData from 1992 to 2018 were gathered from the country of Pakistan in order to achieve the above objectives. Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests were employed to determine the data's stationarity properties. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) model was utilized to examine the symmetric links, and the Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (NARDL) was employed to determine the asymmetric links. While the long-run co-integration was examined using the ARDL bound test, the short-run dynamics were tested using the error correction method (ECM).FindingsThe macroeconomic variables of the stock market index, treasury bill rate, inflation, GDP growth rate and foreign direct investment are found to pose significant short-run and long-run symmetric and asymmetric effects on IPO variability. These results indicate the significance of the aforementioned variables in enhancing IPO variability. The findings also demonstrate the typical reactions of inflation, GDP and FDI towards negative and positive shocks in IPO variability and inflation. This evidence implies that Pakistan's poor capital market development is reflected in the country's weak macroeconomic factors. At the same time, the reduced IPO variability in the country also reflects the lack of confidence among prospective issuers and investors due to Pakistan's weak macroeconomic indicators.Originality/valueThis is the first study of its kind to properly investigate the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's IPO variability.

Linkages between gold and Latin American equity markets: portfolio implications

PurposeThe authors aim to examine the mean and volatility linkages between the gold market and the Latin American equity markets in the entire sample period and two crises periods, namely the US financial crisis and the Chinese crash.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the return and volatility spillovers, the authors employ VAR-BEKK-GARCH model on the daily data of four emerging Latin American equity markets which include Peru, Chile, Brazil and Mexico, which ranges from January 2000 to June 2018.FindingsThe results show that the return transmissions vary across the stock markets and the crises periods. The volatility transmission is found to be bidirectional between the gold and stock markets of Brazil and Chile during the US financial crisis. Furthermore, the volatility spillover is unidirectional from Brazil to gold and from gold to Peru stock market during the Chinese crash. We also calculate the optimal weights hedge ratios for gold and stock portfolio. The result suggests that portfolio managers need to increase the weight of gold for the equity portfolios of Peru and Mexico during the US financial crisis. Furthermore, during the Chinese crisis, investors may raise the investment in gold for the equity portfolios of Brazil and Chile. Finally, the cheapest hedging strategy is CHIL/GOLD during the US financial crisis, whereas MEXI/GOLD during the Chinese crash.Practical implicationsThese findings have useful insights for portfolio diversification, asset pricing and risk management.Originality/valueThe study's outcome provides policymakers and investors with in-depth insights regarding hedging, risk management and portfolio management.

The use of the mobile phone in the rural zones of Peru

PurposeThe main objective of the research is to examine whether the possession and the consumption of the service of a mobile telephone by the families of rural zones has improved their wellbeing in the last 10 years (2007–2016).Design/methodology/approachA quantitative analysis of panel data is proposed in order to analyze the effect of the use of the mobile telephone in rural zones by region of Peru during the last 10 years and capture the unobservable heterogeneity during the said period. In this manner, it is hoped to investigate the effect of the increased use of said technology in Peru.FindingsThe results obtained show that the increase in the acquisitions of mobile telephones in rural zones has had a positive impact on the wellbeing of households. Continuous business innovation driven by citizens’ needs and the greater accessibility of mobile telephones are the main reasons based on the Peruvian context under study.Originality/valueIn Peru, there has been an explosive increase in users of mobile telephones in the last 10 years. The use of this technology may be arriving in rural households before other basic services, provoking individual and social changes and creating new employment and income opportunities. This would support the recent recognition of the mobile telephone as an essential tool for development, especially in underdeveloped countries.