In Full-Information Estimates, Long-Run Risks Explain at Most a Quarter of P/D Variance, and Habit Explains Even Less

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-381
Author(s):  
Andrew Y. Chen ◽  
Fabian Winkler ◽  
Rebecca Wasyk

Author(s):  
Eric M. Aldrich ◽  
A. Ronald Gallant
Keyword(s):  
Long Run ◽  


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun Yong Kim ◽  
Konark Saxena
Keyword(s):  
Long Run ◽  




2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Barro ◽  
Tao Jin
Keyword(s):  
Long Run ◽  


2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 279-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
NICOLAS QUEROU

We consider a repeated regulation model in an oligopoly under asymmetric information with pollution. An iterative procedure is proposed where the regulator designs stationary taxes, and firms are not required to be perfectly rational. They can form and update simple beliefs about their competitors' aggregate output at each period. Two versions of the mechanism are provided depending on whether firms behave adaptively or with perfect foresight. Conditions under which the procedure converges to a unique steady state are provided. It is proved that there exists a suitable stationary tax policy that enables the firms to adjust to socially optimal choices in the long run. The tax rates of both versions are typically strictly less than the ones that result from a full information, Nash implementation. Moreover, in the myopic case, the tax rate decreases as the number of firms increases. We discuss problems relating to the potential implementation of the procedure.



2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (9) ◽  
pp. 2680-2697 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry G. Epstein ◽  
Emmanuel Farhi ◽  
Tomasz Strzalecki

Though risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution have been the subjects of careful scrutiny, the long-run risks literature as well as the broader literature using recursive utility to address asset pricing puzzles has ignored the full implications of their parameter specifications. Recursive utility implies that the temporal resolution of risk matters and a quantitative assessment thereof should be part of the calibration process. This paper gives a sense of the magnitudes of implied timing premia. Its objective is to inject temporal resolution of risk into the discussion of the quantitative properties of long-run risks and related models. (JEL D81, G11, G12)



2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Schlag ◽  
Michael Semenischev ◽  
Julian Thimme


2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Caio Almeida ◽  
Diego Brandao

We study the temporal structure of risk prices, risk exposures and expected market returns for Brazil assuming the economy follows a long run risks model. The model consists on an endowment economy where aggregate consumption and dividend growth contain predictable components, and a representative agent has Epstein-Zin recursive preferences with CES specification. We show that aggregate consumption in Brazil is sufficiently predictable to generate risk premia associated with Epstein-Zin preferences in excess of traditional compensations induced by power utility. Moreover, risk compensation is dominated by permanent shocks both in the short and long run, as Epstein-Zin preferences mitigate the price of temporary shocks' risk.



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