Face mask mandates and risk compensation: an analysis of mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh

IntroductionConcerns have been raised about the potential for risk compensation in the context of mask mandates for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. However, the debate about the presence or absence of risk compensation for universal mandatory mask-wearing rules—especially in the context of COVID-19—is not settled yet.MethodsMobility is used as a proxy for risky behaviour before and after the mask mandates. Two sets of regressions are estimated to decipher (any) risk-compensating effect of mask mandate in Bangladesh. These include: (1) intervention regression analysis of daily activities at six types of locations, using pre-mask-mandate and post-mandate data; and (2) multiple regression analysis of daily new COVID-19 cases on daily mobility (lagged) to establish mobility as a valid proxy.Results(1) Statistically, mobility increased at all five non-residential locations, while home stays decreased after the mask mandate was issued; (2) daily mobility had a statistically significant association on daily new cases (with around 10 days of lag). Both significances were calculated at 95% confidence level.ConclusionCommunity mobility had increased (and stay at home decreased) after the mandatory mask-wearing rule, and given mobility is associated with increases in new COVID-19 cases, there is evidence of risk compensation effect of the mask mandate—at least partially—in Bangladesh.

COVID-19 vaccination, risk-compensatory behaviours, and social contacts in four countries in the UK

The physiological effects of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) are well documented, yet the behavioural effects are largely unknown. Risk compensation suggests that gains in personal safety, as a result of vaccination, are offset by increases in risky behaviour, such as socialising, commuting and working outside the home. This is potentially problematic because transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is driven by contacts, which could be amplified by vaccine-related risk compensation behaviours. Here, we show that social behaviours were overall unrelated to personal vaccination, but - adjusting for variation in mitigation policies - were responsive to the level of vaccination in the wider population: individuals in the UK were risk compensating when rates of vaccination were rising. This effect was observed across four nations of the UK, each of which varied policies autonomously.

The Roles of Mental Construal Level Theory in the Promotion of University Students' Pro-environmental Behaviors

Although green technological innovation is designed to combat climate change, recent research suggests that increased attention to technological innovations might decrease climate change risk perception and reduce pro-environmental behaviors due to the feeling of being assured, which is referred to as risk compensation behavior. Although there has been a growing interest in reducing the risk compensation effect related to climate change, the academic literature in this area is very limited. In this study, we propose a psychological intervention to mitigate a sample of university students' (N = 1,500) irrational response to green technological innovation so as to promote their pro-environmental behaviors. Our experiments identify students' mental construal level as an important psychological factor that, when combined with a proper message framing strategy of introducing new green technologies, can remedy their irrational response to new green technologies. Our findings suggest that highlighting the new technology as playing a preventive/promotional role related to climate change can mitigate risk compensation behavior and eventually promote students' pro-environmental behaviors when they are at a high/low mental construal level.

Oral Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical effectiveness, safety, adherence and risk compensation in all populations

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of the effectiveness and safety of oral Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV.MethodsDatabases (PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials) were searched up to 5/7/2020. RCTs were included that compared oral tenofovir-containing PrEP to placebo, no treatment or alternative medication/dosing schedule. The primary outcome was the rate ratio (RR) of HIV infection using a modified intention-to-treat analysis. All analyses were stratified a priori by population: men who have sex with men (MSM), serodiscordant couples, heterosexuals and people who inject drugs (PWID).The quality of individual studies was assessed using the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool and the certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE.ResultsOf 2,803 unique records, 15 RCTs met our inclusion criteria. Over 25,000 participants were included, encompassing 38,289 person-years of follow-up data.PrEP was found to be effective in MSM (Rate Ratio [RR] 0.25, 95% CI: 0.1-0.61; Absolute Rate Difference [ARD] -0.03, 95% CI: -0.01 to -0.05), serodiscordant couples (RR 0.25, 95% CI: 0.14-0.46; ARD -0.01, 95% CI: -0.01 to -0.02) and PWID (RR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.29-0.92; ARD - 0.00, 95% CI: -0.00 to -0.01), but not in heterosexuals (RR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.46-1.29).Efficacy was strongly associated with adherence (p<0.01). PrEP was found to be safe, however unrecognised HIV at enrolment increased the risk of viral drug mutations. Evidence for risk compensation or an increase in STIs was not found.DiscussionPrEP is safe and effective in MSM, serodiscordant couples and PWID. Additional research is needed prior to recommending PrEP in heterosexuals. Data were limited by poor adherence in several studies. No RCTs were identified for other high-risk groups, such as trangender women and sex workers.PROSPERO IDCRD42017065937Article SummaryStrengths and limitations of this studyA systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs was conducted of the efficacy and safety of oral PrEP to prevent HIV following best practice guidelines (PRISMA guidelines and GRADE framework)Observational studies were excluded from this review, and as such, PrEP effectiveness may be lower in real-world settingsChange in sexual behaviour, or ‘risk compensation’, is difficult to ascertain based on RCT evidence aloneDue to substantial variation in adherence across studies, findings should be interpreted with caution.

Face Mask Use Conditionally Decreases Compliance With Physical Distancing Rules Against COVID-19: Gender Differences in Risk Compensation Pattern

Background In the context of the COVID-19 emergency, the concern has been raised that people may compensate the reduction in risk ensured by mask use with an increase in risk induced by lower adherence to physical distancing rules. Purpose The paper investigates if people compensate risk in this manner when their interaction partner wears a face mask, examining if risk compensation further depends on gender, signaled social status and perceived race. Methods An experiment was conducted in two waves (June, n = 1396 and September 2020, n = 1326) in front of the traffic lights of four busy roads in Paris. A confederate asked a randomly selected pedestrian for directions following a script and keeping the recommended distance. Confederates were locally recognizable as Blacks or Whites and alternatively presented themselves with a costume indicative of high or low social status. An observer recorded whether the pedestrian kept the recommended distance. Results Both in June and September, men are less likely to comply with the distancing rule when the confederate wears the face mask, and particularly so when the confederate signals high status. When the confederate wears the mask, female pedestrians observe less the one-meter rule in September than in June. Conclusions Men’s risk compensatory behavior is constant over time. In contrast, women’s depends on the time period.