Estimation of Incurred but Not yet Reported Claims Based on Poisson Distributed Reporting Delay

Background: For diseases like Covid-19, where it has been difficult to identify the true number of infected people, or where the number of known cases is heavily influenced by the number of tests performed, hospitalizations and deaths play a significant role in understanding the epidemic and in determining the appropriate response. However, the Covid-19 deaths data reported by some countries display a significant weekly variability, which can make the interpretation and use of the death data in analysis and modeling difficult. Methods: We derive the mathematical relationship between the series of new daily deaths by reporting date and the series of deaths by death date. We then apply this formalism to the corresponding time-series reported by Sweden during the Covid-19 pandemic. Results: The practice of reporting new deaths daily, as is standard procedure during an outbreak in most countries and regions, should be viewed as a time-dependent filter, modulating the underlying true death curve. After having characterized the Swedish reporting process, we show how smoothing of the Swedish reported daily deaths series results in a curve distinctly different from the true death curve. We also comment on the use of nowcasting methods. Conclusions: Modelers and analysts using the series of new daily deaths by reporting date should take extra care when it is highly variable and when there is a significant reporting delay. It might be appropriate to instead use the series of deaths by death date combined with a nowcasting algorithm as basis for their analysis.

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An Approach for Assessing the Distribution of Reporting Delay in Portuguese AIDS Data

New Advances in Information Systems and Technologies - Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-31307-8_66 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 641-649 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alexandra Oliveira ◽

A. Rita Gaio ◽

Joaquim Pinto da Costa ◽

Luís Paulo Reis

Keyword(s):

Reporting Delay

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Claims Reserving in Continuous Time; A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach

Astin Bulletin ◽

10.2143/ast.26.2.563216 ◽

1996 ◽

Vol 26 (2) ◽

pp. 139-164 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Svend Haastrup ◽

Elja Arjas

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Approach ◽

Posterior Distribution ◽

Continuous Time ◽

Marked Point ◽

Marked Point Process ◽

Nonparametric Bayesian ◽

Occurrence Time ◽

One Dimensional ◽

The Individual ◽

Reporting Delay

AbstractOccurrences and developments of claims are modelled as a marked point process. The individual claim consists of an occurrence time, two covariates, a reporting delay, and a process describing partial payments and settlement of the claim. Under certain likelihood assumptions the distribution of the process is described by 14 one-dimensional components. The modelling is nonparametric Bayesian. The posterior distribution of the components and the posterior distribution of the outstanding IBNR and RBNS liabilities are found simultaneously. The method is applied to a portfolio of accident insurances.

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Improving reporting delay and lifetime of a WSN using controlled mobile sinks

Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing ◽

10.1007/s12652-018-0901-5 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 1433-1441 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Vicky Kumar ◽

Ashok Kumar

Keyword(s):

Mobile Sinks ◽

Reporting Delay

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Performance reporting delay in local government: a global south view

International Journal of Public Sector Management ◽

10.1108/ijpsm-06-2019-0177 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (4) ◽

pp. 477-496 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Charles Wharton Kaye-Essien

Keyword(s):

Local Government ◽

Local Governments ◽

Local Level ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Monitoring And Evaluation ◽

Global South ◽

Content Type ◽

Performance Reporting ◽

Reporting Delays ◽

Reporting Delay

PurposeThe object of this paper is to understand how central–local relations and internal technical characteristics contribute to performance reporting delays at the local level in a Global South context.Design/methodology/approachThe paper develops and tests four propositions using a combination of secondary data analyses and semistructured interviews with 30 local government officials.FindingsThe findings indicate that delays in performance reporting are generally high in pre-election years because leadership commitments at the local level largely shift toward national politics (campaigning for re-election of the president). Additional reporting delays were found to be the result of low financial capacity to maintain appropriate data collection and management systems, lack of highly trained monitoring and evaluation experts at the local level and lack of sanctions for noncompliance.Research limitations/implicationsThe fact that some types of Districts (large municipalities and metro areas with access to large financial resources) were excluded from the analysis induces some bias to the findings. The choice of 30 out of a total 260 local governments limits the analyses to only 12% of views and perceptions of local government reporting delay. Additionally sourcing responses from a few monitoring and evaluation (M&E) personnel out of hundreds of mid- to upper-level employees limited the breath of discussions that could have resulted from a broader study.Practical implicationsThe results of this paper suggest that any attempt at imposing sanctions on late reporting may not be very successful since national party politics, which lie outside the control of municipalities, is one of the main factors that drive reporting delay. Rather than imposing sanctions, government should consider incentivizing the reporting process. On the other hand, since internally generated funds (IGF) and the M&E team are factors that lie within the control of the municipality, any attempt to decrease reporting delay should first focus on improving local revenues and strengthening municipal M&E capacity building.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the existing literature by offering directions for approaching performance reporting delay in two ways. First, it emphasizes central–local relations as an important political determinant of performance reporting delay. Second, it explores reporting delay in Ghana's local governments and therefore provides useful insights from a Global South perspective.

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