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Author(s):  
Robert McCrossin

The ratio of males to females with ASD is generally quoted as 4:1 though it is believed that there are biases preventing females being diagnosed and that the true ratio is lower. These biases have not been clearly identified or quantified. Starting with a clinical dataset of 1711 children <18 years old four different methods were employed in an inductive study to identify and quantify the biases and calculate the proportion of females missed. A mathematical model was constructed to compare the findings with current published data. The true male to female ratio appears to be 3:4. Eighty per cent of females remain undiagnosed at age 18 which has serious consequences for the mental health of young women.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Åke Brännström ◽  
Henrik Sjödin ◽  
Joacim Rocklöv

At the outset of an epidemic, available case data typically underestimate the total number of infections due to insufficient testing, potentially hampering public responses. Here, we present a method for statistically estimating the true number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths and estimates of the infection fatality ratio; assuming that the time from infection to death follows a known distribution. While the method is applicable to any epidemic with a significant mortality rate, we exemplify the method by applying it to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in March 2020 was likely to be at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, with the degree of underestimation among the countries considered being particularly high in the United Kingdom.


Author(s):  
Shahzad Rasheed Qureshi ◽  
Nazakat Hussain Memon ◽  
Sadia Qamar Arain ◽  
Ghulam Shah Nizamani ◽  
Majid Ali Abbasi ◽  
...  

Aim: The world is affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. This virus has emerged as a human pathogen that can cause symptoms ranging from fever to Pneumonia, but it remains asymptomatic or mild. To better understand the virus's ongoing spread, identify those who have been infected, and track the immune response, accurate and robust immunological monitoring and SARS-CoV-2 detection assays are needed. Methods: The estimation of serology tests to assess the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in COVID- 19 patients at Asian Institute of Medical Sciences (AIMS) and Isra University & hospital. 1229 patients were selected including males and females with the age being 25 to 65 years living in the territories from 1st August to 30th November 2020. The anti-SARS-CoV-2 test was performed by an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay analyzer. Results: Out of 1229 participants 206 (17%) were positive with COVID-19, and 1023 (83%) were negative. The results further revealed that a higher percentage of positive COVID-19 were detected in males in all age groups as compared to females, and most of them are affected at age of 46-65 years male 40 (24.69%) and female 14(17.5%). Conclusion: The seroprevalence of SARS-COV-2 antibodies has increased in the old age population, which may aid in determining the true number of infected cases. Although the current study is based on a small sample of participants, the findings suggest a study with a larger population to implement stronger and targeted interventions.


Pharmaceutics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2001
Author(s):  
Laura E. McCoubrey ◽  
Stavriani Thomaidou ◽  
Moe Elbadawi ◽  
Simon Gaisford ◽  
Mine Orlu ◽  
...  

Over 150 drugs are currently recognised as being susceptible to metabolism or bioaccumulation (together described as depletion) by gastrointestinal microorganisms; however, the true number is likely higher. Microbial drug depletion is often variable between and within individuals, depending on their unique composition of gut microbiota. Such variability can lead to significant differences in pharmacokinetics, which may be associated with dosing difficulties and lack of medication response. In this study, literature mining and unsupervised learning were used to curate a dataset of 455 drug–microbiota interactions. From this, 11 supervised learning models were developed that could predict drugs’ susceptibility to depletion by gut microbiota. The best model, a tuned extremely randomised trees classifier, achieved performance metrics of AUROC: 75.1% ± 6.8; weighted recall: 79.2% ± 3.9; balanced accuracy: 69.0% ± 4.6; and weighted precision: 80.2% ± 3.7 when validated on 91 drugs. This machine learning model is the first of its kind and provides a rapid, reliable, and resource-friendly tool for researchers and industry professionals to screen drugs for susceptibility to depletion by gut microbiota. The recognition of drug–microbiome interactions can support successful drug development and promote better formulations and dosage regimens for patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 638-649
Author(s):  
Patrick Agyare

This paper examines the human rights situation of irregular migrants on the Central Mediterranean. For this, it investigates the content and nature of the challenges involved in this migratory phenomenon. The studies conducted on this theme led to the existence of political, legal, and institutional challenges related to the protection of fundamental rights of irregular migrants who undertake unsafe crossing of the Mediterranean to the EU. In this context, it seemed useful to question the capacity of existing norms to grasp the nuances of a constantly changing reality that puts pressure on individuals, states, and international organizations set up to protect them. It further highlights worrying trends of shipwrecks, with over one thousand deaths recorded in the first seven months of 2021, a number that could well underestimate the true number of fatal accidents. At the same time, the security of Europe’s Southern Borders must be respected in the face of unauthorized crossing of the Mediterranean. However, the obstacle to the rescue activities of NGOs, as well as decisions that delay the disembarkation of migrants rescued at sea, does not guarantee the minimum reverence for fundamental rights. This paper aims, therefore, to highlight the dangers inherent in unsafe practices of trafficking or transport of irregular migrants by sea. It further draws attention to both state and non-state actors to respect the fundamental rights of irregular migrants and to save lives at sea. Conversely, the fragmentation of international instruments amid the absence of a sovereign enforcing body can be seen as a limitation constraining the effectiveness of the fundamental rights of the migrants.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Ransome ◽  
Neil R. Loneragan ◽  
Luis Medrano-González ◽  
Fernando Félix ◽  
Joshua N. Smith

Vessel strike is recognized as a major modern threat to the recovery of large whale populations globally, but the issue is notoriously difficult to assess. Vessel strikes by large ships frequently go unnoticed, and those involving smaller vessels are rarely reported. Interpreting global patterns of vessel strikes is further hindered by underlying reporting biases caused by differences in countries’ research efforts, legislation, reporting structures and enforcement. This leaves global strike data “patchy” and typically scarce outside of developed countries, where resources are more limited. To explore this we investigated vessel strikes with large whales in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), a coastal region of ten developing countries where heavy shipping and high cetacean densities overlap. Although this is characteristic of vessel strike “hotspots” worldwide, only 11 ETP strike reports from just four countries (∼2% of total reports) existed in the International Whaling Commission’s Global Ship Strike Database (2010). This contrasts greatly with abundant reports from the neighboring state of California (United States), and the greater United States/Canadian west coast, making it a compelling case study for investigating underreporting. By reviewing online media databases and articles, peer review publications and requesting information from government agencies, scientists, and tourism companies, we compiled a regional ETP vessel strike database. We found over three times as many strike reports (n = 40), from twice as many countries (n = 8), identifying the geographic extent and severity of the threat, although likely still underestimating the true number of strikes. Reports were found from 1905 until 2017, showing that strikes are a regional, historic, and present threat to large whales. The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) was the most commonly hit species, and whale-watch industries involving small vessels in areas of high whale densities were recognized as a conservation and management concern. Industrial fishing fleets and shipping were suggested to be underrepresented sectors in the database, and are likely high-risk vessels for strikes with whales. We demonstrate the implications of known vessel strike reporting biases and conclude a more rapid assessment of global vessel strikes would substantially benefit from prioritized research efforts in developing regions, with known vessel strike “hotspot” characteristics, but few strike reports.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0256907
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Barmpoutis ◽  
Matthew Di Capite ◽  
Hamzeh Kayhanian ◽  
William Waddingham ◽  
Daniel C. Alexander ◽  
...  

Tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS) are ectopic aggregates of lymphoid cells in inflamed, infected, or tumoral tissues that are easily recognized on an H&E histology slide as discrete entities, distinct from lymphocytes. TLS are associated with improved cancer prognosis but there is no standardised method available to quantify their presence. Previous studies have used immunohistochemistry to determine the presence of specific cells as a marker of the TLS. This has now been proven to be an underestimate of the true number of TLS. Thus, we propose a methodology for the automated identification and quantification of TLS, based on H&E slides. We subsequently determined the mathematical criteria defining a TLS. TLS regions were identified through a deep convolutional neural network and segmentation of lymphocytes was performed through an ellipsoidal model. This methodology had a 92.87% specificity at 95% sensitivity, 88.79% specificity at 98% sensitivity and 84.32% specificity at 99% sensitivity level based on 144 TLS annotated H&E slides implying that the automated approach was able to reproduce the histopathologists’ assessment with great accuracy. We showed that the minimum number of lymphocytes within TLS is 45 and the minimum TLS area is 6,245μm2. Furthermore, we have shown that the density of the lymphocytes is more than 3 times those outside of the TLS. The mean density and standard deviation of lymphocytes within a TLS area are 0.0128/μm2 and 0.0026/μm2 respectively compared to 0.004/μm2 and 0.001/μm2 in non-TLS regions. The proposed methodology shows great potential for automated identification and quantification of the TLS density on digital H&E slides.


Author(s):  
Daniel Nunez-Avellaneda ◽  
Chandra Tangudu ◽  
Jacqueline Barrios-Palacios ◽  
Ma. Isabel Salazar ◽  
Carlos Machain-Williams ◽  
...  

The local public health authorities reported nine cases of chikungunya in Mexico in 2019, none of which occurred in Guerrero, a coastal state in the southwest. To test the hypothesis that chikungunya is grossly underreported in Mexico, acute sera were collected from 639 febrile patients from low-income households in Guerrero in 2019 and serologically assayed for chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Analysis of the sera by plaque reduction neutralization test revealed that 181 (28.3%) patients were seropositive for CHIKV. To identify patients with acute CHIKV infections, a subset of sera samples were tested for CHIKV-specific IgM by ELISA. Sera samples from 21 of 189 (11.1%) patients were positive. These patients met the chikungunya case definition established by the WHO. In conclusion, we provide evidence that CHIKV remains an important public health problem in Mexico and that the true number of cases is severely underestimated.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Mercker

Estimation of bird and bat fatalities due to collision with anthropogenic structures (such as power lines or wind turbines) is an important ecological issue. However, searching for collision victims usually only detects a proportion of the true number of collided individuals. Various mortality estimators have previously been proposed to correct for this incomplete detection, based on regular carcass searches and additional field experiments. However, each estimator implies specific assumptions/restrictions, which may easily be violated in practice. In this study, we extended previous approaches and developed a versatile algorithm to compute point and variance estimates for true carcass numbers. The presented method allows for maximal flexibility in the data structure. Using simulated data, we showed that our point and variance estimators ensured unbiased estimates under various challenging data conditions. The presented method may improve the estimation of true collision numbers, as an important pre-condition for calculating collision rates and evaluating measures to reduce collision risks, and may thus provide a basis for management decisions and/or compensation actions with regard to planned or existing wind turbines and power lines.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 210227
Author(s):  
J. C. Macdonald ◽  
C. Browne ◽  
H. Gulbudak

Each state in the USA exhibited a unique response to the COVID-19 outbreak, along with variable levels of testing, leading to different actual case burdens in the country. In this study, via per capita testing dependent ascertainment rates, along with case and death data, we fit a minimal epidemic model for each state. We estimate infection-level responsive lockdown/self-quarantine entry and exit rates (representing government and behavioural reaction), along with the true number of cases as of 31 May 2020. Ultimately, we provide error-corrected estimates for commonly used metrics such as infection fatality ratio and overall case ascertainment for all 55 states and territories considered, along with the USA in aggregate, in order to correlate outbreak severity with first wave intervention attributes and suggest potential management strategies for future outbreaks. We observe a theoretically predicted inverse proportionality relation between outbreak size and lockdown rate, with scale dependent on the underlying reproduction number and simulations suggesting a critical population quarantine ‘half-life’ of 30 days independent of other model parameters.


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