Subject
Prospects for the global coal market.
Significance
Seaborne thermal coal prices are on a long-term slide. Having peaked above 130 dollars per metric tonne (mt) for thermal coal delivered into north-western Europe in 2011, prices have sunk to 52.8 dollars/mt on September 7, the lowest level since 2009. At these prices, only the lowest-cost producers can remain profitable. In its 'Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014', the International Energy Agency estimates that production costs for US Central Appalachian (CAPP) producers and Australian underground mining are close to 90 dollars/mt.
Impacts
Further coal sector bankruptcies and mine closures are likely.
Coal will remain competitive with natural gas for power generation in most markets.
Medium-term demand response will be limited by a lack of new coal plant construction and environmental regulation.