Global coal market will stay oversupplied

Subject Prospects for the global coal market. Significance Seaborne thermal coal prices are on a long-term slide. Having peaked above 130 dollars per metric tonne (mt) for thermal coal delivered into north-western Europe in 2011, prices have sunk to 52.8 dollars/mt on September 7, the lowest level since 2009. At these prices, only the lowest-cost producers can remain profitable. In its 'Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014', the International Energy Agency estimates that production costs for US Central Appalachian (CAPP) producers and Australian underground mining are close to 90 dollars/mt. Impacts Further coal sector bankruptcies and mine closures are likely. Coal will remain competitive with natural gas for power generation in most markets. Medium-term demand response will be limited by a lack of new coal plant construction and environmental regulation.

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dramani Bukari ◽  
Francis Xavier Dery Tuokuu ◽  
Shafic Suleman ◽  
Ishmael Ackah ◽  
Godwin Apenu

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive review of the programmes being implemented with a view to ascertaining if they adequately address the energy needs of the poor more holistically and sustainably. Design/methodology/approach The content of this desktop review is based on information collected through a review of available energy policy documents from the Ghana Government and related governmental agencies, such as the Energy Commission and Ghana Statistical Services, international energy-related agencies, such as the International Energy Agency (World Vision, 2013), as well as other related web searches. Additionally, global and Sub-Saharan African energy access documents were reviewed by analysing secondary data from the World Bank and UN policy reports, statistical data, strategies, regulations, protocols and other related documents (World Vision, 2013). Furthermore, some policy documents on energy access and usage were explored mainly from Senegal and Ghana to ascertain governments’ policies, regulations and strategies in the implementation of energy access policies. Findings The paper offers all the various strategies being implemented in an attempt to establish a foothold on the problem of affording the poor with clean and affordable energies. The paper also presents the rich experiences of Senegal in its bid to see expanded access in liquefied petroleum gas usage by residential consumers. Originality/value The paper provides some policy and theoretical implications for improving Ghana’s energy access.


ICR Journal ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 446-451
Author(s):  
Anis H. Bajrektarevic

The MENA theatre is situated in one of the most fascinating locations of the world, the Middle East and North Africa. It represents, along with the Balkans-Caucasus, the only existing land corridor that connects three continents. It also holds over a half of the world’s proven oil-gas reserves (56 percent - oil, 48 percent - gas). Furthermore, the Gulf OPEC states and Libya have by far the lowest costs of oil extraction, thanks to the high crude purity (measured by overall properties such as the state of aggregation, excavation gravity, viscosity, weight, sulfuric content and other contaminants) which simplifies and reduces the cost of the refinement process. These petrol-exporters also enjoy the close proximity to open warm seas for low-cost, fast and convenient overseas shipments. Hence, the costs per barrel of crude for Libya and the Persian Gulf states are under US$ 5; for other OPEC members, below US$ 10. This is in a sharp contrast to countries such as the US, Russia, Norway, Canada and many others that bear production costs of several tens of US$ per barrel, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Therefore, it is an absolute imperative for the external/peripheral powers to dominate such a pivotal geo-economic and geopolitical theatre by simply keeping its centre “soft,” and pre-empting, preventing or hindering any emancipation that might come through any indigenous socio-political modernisation. This is the very same imperative that has remained a dominant rationale of inner European and Asian machtpolitik for centuries.


Subject Long-term energy markets outlook. Significance The International Energy Agency (IEA) has upgraded its forecast for total primary energy demand (TPED) to 2040 for the first time since it began projecting this far out in 2014. Impacts The IEA’s belief that the world is on an environmentally unsustainable path will bolster decarbonisation efforts nationally and globally. The IEA does not see oil demand peaking by 2040; this and gas’s growing share of global demand will help sustain oil and gas investment. China and India switching from coal to gas will reduce coal’s share of energy demand even though India’s official targets are optimistic.


Subject Offshore wind costs and potential. Significance The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on October 25 estimating that offshore wind capacity will rise 15-fold over the next two decades. Costs have been falling ahead of expectations and further cost reductions will help the sector to build more momentum. Impacts North European turbine producers and wind project developers see huge export potential, but Chinese firms will provide stiff competition. Offshore construction vessels will support rising offshore wind deployment and help to bolster currently weak shipyard order books. Governments and regulators will create supportive policies for offshore wind, but this will occur gradually and differently across regions.


Subject Coal market outlook. Significance Coal producers are under pressure. For many, the price of thermal coal exports is below the cost of production plus transport. Currency depreciation and lower oil prices provide some insulation but leave high-cost US producers, in particular, in financial peril. Impacts Countries dependent on coal-export revenues will face further fiscal shortfalls. Leading exporting countries (such as Russia, Mozambique and Mongolia) will no longer get substantial revenues from coal. New investment will remain scarce as funds eschew the coal industry's low margins and risk of carbon-reduction regulation adding to costs.


Subject Outlook for global coal markets. Significance Thermal coal prices hit a record of 210 dollars per tonne in July 2008 and have declined since 2011. Last year, prices averaged 57 dollars per tonne and until recently struggled to hold above the 45 threshold. The slide is due to environmental concerns, which are shifting power generation towards low-carbon sources. After several years of 300 million tonnes (mt) yearly growth, global coal demand fell by 63 mt in 2014 and by 180 mt in 2015. Although many mines have been shut, production fell by less than demand. Impacts This year Russia may surpass its 2015 production by 10 mt, all of which will be exported. Australia's compliance with Paris emissions reduction targets may thwart domestic coal projects mulled by China's Shenhua and India's Adani. Having lost its export markets, Indonesia is redirecting its coal production towards the slated increase in domestic power generation. Colombia has entered the Indian market thanks to record-low freight rates; their increase may reduce flows to the subcontinent. Japan targets a 26% reduction in emissions for 2030 by limiting coal use to 26% of total power output.


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