scholarly journals Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the United States and the Euro Area

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Andrés ◽  
J. David López-Salido ◽  
Edward Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Interest

scholarly journals The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 37-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Barsky ◽  
Alejandro Justiniano ◽  
Leonardo Melosi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Natural Rate Of Interest ◽  
Comparable Magnitude

We estimate a state-of-the-art DSGE model to study the natural rate of interest in the United States over the last 20 years. The natural rate is highly procyclical, and fell substantially below zero in each of the last three recessions. Although the drop was of comparable magnitude across the three recessions, the decline was considerably more persistent in the Great Recession. We discuss the usefulness and limitations, particularly due to the zero lower bound, of the natural rate for the conduct of monetary policy.

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Alichi ◽  
Olivier Bizimana ◽  
Silvia Domit ◽  
Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo ◽  
Douglas Laxton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
Potential Output

scholarly journals Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Grothe ◽  
Aidan Meyler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

This paper analyses the predictive power of market-based and survey-based inflation expectations for actual inflation. We use the data on inflation swaps and the forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the euro area and the United States. The results show that both market-based and survey-based measures have a non-negligible predictive power for inflation developments, as compared to statistical benchmark models. Therefore, for horizons of one and two years ahead, market-based and survey-based inflation expectations actually convey information on future inflation developments.

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